What do we think a relaxation would look like if it come?

[WaxOnFeckOff]

Think this is probably a way off yet and thinks may get tighter before they get better, but how with this happen and what do we think will be relaxed first?

I mean it's not going to go from virtual lock-down/complete lock-down to normal is it?

Maybe more shops open? Parks/carparks? Still advised to work from home but schools back? Mass immunity testing and those with immunity allowed to return to normal?

Has anyone seen any likely scenarios or have any thoughts?

I'm hoping seeing friends and family will be the first thing; it's so important for mental health and if you can only meet within homes (not pubs etc) the numbers mixing will me naturally controlled by the practicalities (5 people coming for lunch / drinks at home vs 250 strangers in a pub)

I've been wondering about this too. Everyone is thinking about things opening up again at some point over the summer, and the assumption that universities and schools will be open in the autumn. But the modelling and science doesn't fit that working - we have a much larger outbreak than China, so even by September, we will not have entirely eradicated it. If we relax the rules, transmission will presumably get going again. But we cannot maintain a lockdown for 18 months until a vaccine comes out - neither economically or in terms of people's mental health. The only ways forward I can see are by switching to universal and enforced testing, so locking down only the sick and their households. Or by using the next few weeks to further scale up NHS capacity, so that we just learn to live with it. But I worry about how you manage that politically.

Crowded public events will still be banned. Schools will go back. People will still be asked to social distance as much as possible and not to travel unless necessary.

Though schools are crowded public events. This make it impossible for children, teachers and parents to socially distance-they are immediately at risk.

Opening schools also mean thousands and thousands of people across the country will be travelling twice a day-the roads will be chocka again. Once schools are open, socially distancing will be impossible for many-that includes the vulnerable (which half our teachers are) and a fair number of our parents-I would think my school isn’t alone here.

According to the Tui ( a U.K. holiday company) on Twitter I read today they hope holidays booked after the 16 th April will be going ahead! I couldn't believe this at all ?

We are trying to get a refund for a holiday we were due to go on next week with them. We have heard nothing yet.

What do they know that we don't or is it just wishful thinking to stop people 'tweeting ' them? I thought April was pretty much wiped out as far as holidays go?
I was surprised at them telling people this?

@The80sweregreat
I think this is just so that they only have to deal with refunds/cancellations a week or so at a time. They're inundated with people wanting to cancel or switch dates so they prioritise holidays that are imminent and so obviously cancelled. Then when the week of 17th April comes they'll deal with the holidays booked for a week or two around this date.

I guessed that was the thinking behind it , but I think it's badly worded as it's making people think that the holiday could be going ahead after the 16th April! Still waiting to hear from them. I appreciate they must be extremely busy.

I'm due to holiday with Hoseasons tomorrow, they've sent an email saying they are only dealing with people leaving within the next 7 days, haven't replied to my reply, cant get through on phone and i've messaged them on Fb as suggested by them, and still not heard anything. According to email and website, they want to give me credit for a year and they'll waive the rebooking charge . but as DH is NHS, we have no idea, even outwith current circumstances, when he'll be able to be off plus, unsurprisingly, prices are higher now and we'd have to pay the difference.

If they don't contact me before Monday then I'm going to reclaim via my credit card for services not provided.

When reading the report on the social measures, they said that large social gatherings were seen as a relatively low risk due to the amount of time you lay spend with someone and the fact that often you aren't fully mixing with everyone there so the number of infections is lower than you might imagine.
Whereas children sit in classrooms of 30 doe hours at a time, and in high school.ota a greater number of mixes of children. They estimated a third of transmissions could be due to schools mixing children then them taking the disease home and vice versa.

Schools didn't close last, so I doubt they would be the first to open.

My dh read online that the chancellor and another professor wants lockdown to be finished sooner rather than later! It is a worry as it's all uncertainly and flip flopping and different points of view all colouring how to handle this crisis.
Who can you trust?

I think non essential shops and going to work will be first to reopen. They’ll need to start the economy again. Then open spaces but no festivals or fairs or markets etc. Police told to break up gatherings of 20 or more. Weddings and parties under 20 allowed.

Then schools in Sept.

Larger gatherings after (inc sports matches).

I’m in Italy and some measures have already been relaxed. They are calling it Phase 2, Living with the Virus.
The production department of DH’s factory (heavy industry) is back working at 40% after 2 weeks. They have temperature checks on entry, PP equipment and 2metre distancing. They had to prove all this to the local health authorities. All office workers are still WFH.

Schools are expected to return in September. Final year students will do an online timed written exam and FaceTime oral. All other years will receive a global mark from the panel of teachers.

They are also talking about a Korean style phone app.

I suspect there might be a slight relaxing of the rules around which shops can be open and eg that vets can do more routine work like neutering cats. Maybe allow opticians to do their routine checks too. I think we need to avoid an explosion in the cat population in a few months' time, never mind a human baby boom :)

And being able to visit family members who you don't live with.

And let more people into supermarkets at a time. And permit more people to attend funerals and weddings.

Maybe reopen schools for Y10s and Y12s. As the mum of a Y12 I hope so, anyway.

I think it will be few months before crowded public events are permitted. Not so sure about things like parkrun which are outside. Maybe in the summer eg July time.

And possibly longer before overseas travel is allowed for anything other than urgent reasons like going to a funeral.

But who knows, really?

What would people prefer? All taking our chances and being allowed out / shops and schools open again etc or tighter lockdowns?
Like most things it would be 50/50 I suppose. Whatever they do won't suit everyone. The nhs wouldn't cope with less restrictions. It is a nightmare.

Schools are expected to return in September.

If that’s what’s being planned in Italy, I can’t see it being any sooner here.

The exit plan being talked about is predicated on wide scale testing, both antibody and antigen. Localised cases will be strictly isolated and contacts traced and isolated.

We can't move to this until
: we can test very high numbers each day
: we have a reliable and widely available antigen test
: we develop our ability to isolate and contact trace
: case numbers have dropped massively

All of this seems a long way off although obviously a lot closer than getting a vaccine out there.

Therefore we will either need a strict lockdown for much longer - months not weeks - or we need another exit policy which may include temporary lifting of restrictions before cases spike again and then further phases of lockdown.

Different countries will follow different courses of action so we will learn from each other.

Please don't let schools reopen until September. The transmission risks will just pass back pressure to the NHS.