Is a recession coming?

[morewineplease1]

Just that really.

What are people's thoughts on the property market and a recession?

I've seen a few threads on here and tbh, apart from arguing no one makes a clear or valid point.

(Please don't give me abuse, I'm just looking for people's thoughts - not to be told it's obvious). Thanks 😃

I think it's an interesting and worthwhile thread. People are going to have to face up to the economic fallout soon enough.

I also think people will be mindful of that rainy day & save more. After 08 the high street never really recovered & people switched to spending money on experiences, the exact sector which is being decimated now.

There's going to be an economic impact and of course it's costing the government a fortune already. A million new unemployed in two weeks, millions more not working and having the government pay their wages, the service sector unable to operate for an indefinite period of time.

It's not even like anything we've been through before so we can't predict how bad it will be to effectively suspend a large chunk of the activity that keeps capitalism going but continue to put money in to the system as though that activity were continuing.

Previous crashes and disasters like wars and so on there are models for. But this is unprecedented.

I think that sector will be the first to get a bounce back though as when people are allowed it will be people wanting to ‘do things’ again that will jump start it

Mother’s and childminders will be wanting to go to soft play on a rainy day again

Families will want a meal out again

The weaker companies won’t make it but those that hang on will certainly get business again

Both industries that my DH and I work in are as busy as ever (mostly unnecessary) but it’s an industry that’s often been a big indication of how the economy will be doing in the next few years as to how people are acting now.

Initially 3 weeks ago, I assumed things would go to standstill, but it’s nothing if the sort

Yes.

I fear that this chapter is a gift to the ultra-high net worth crowd.

The aftermath of 08 impacted everyone and still was/is due to education, social care and the nhs. Some rich can make a killing in recessions, but most suffer.
16 in 2008 isnt too young to have not read the news over the last 12 years!

*due to cuts (austerity)

Yes the 2008 recession did affect you. I don't know much about economics but I believe this won't be as bad. People are able, and want to work. They want to spend. It will take a while for businesses to recover but they will.

See whilst I can't wait to be "free" again & go out for a meal i'm definitely nervous about going to places with large crowds & I really don't fancy a foreign holiday for a while. The UK tourism sector may get a boost.

I don't know how people are going to recover from their new fear of crowds.

I can't see my cute local pub cramming people in as they used to.

Yes, unfortunately there will be a massive recession, and many companies, including lots of shops and cafes will either not be able to reopen at all, or it will take them a long time. I think that life will be quite dramatically different for wuite a long time, so we will not be taking much for granted. Having said all that, most of the rest of the World will be in a similar situation to us, which might actually be beneficial all around. However if my loved ones and I come out of this alive and relatively well, I am willing to forego some/most of lifes treats and luxuries.
I think the private housing market will be quite slow for a while after this, but at the moment my biggest worries are my loved ones health. For everything else we will adapt, and eventually grow again.

I don’t nessecarily think there is a fear of crowds as such

I think there is a fear of people carrying a potentially deadly illness but once it’s more understood and there is immunity due to vaccine or other people will go on again just like they did after previous outbreaks

I wonder if the trend for high rise high luxury apartments will continue. There are so many now in Vauxhall/Nine Elms, its a huge building site.

"when people are allowed it will be people wanting to ‘do things’ again that will jump start it "

It depends on how many people will be on similar income to before CV and hence have the money to "do things" like that

and of those who can, how many will want to build up a bigger savings buffer first, before resuming previous discretionary spending

Beenijobes- a lot of those luxury flats are only sold for investment and many never even lived in

As long as housing continues to beat interest rates it will always sell to people who have an excess of money that they don’t want to risk on the stock market or in multiple bank accounts

I think there is a fear of people carrying a potentially deadly illness but once it’s more understood and there is immunity due to vaccine or other people will go on again just like they did after previous outbreaks

The vaccine is realistically 12-18 months off, last I read (I understand BAT had some early promising results but the market doesn't seem to think so). The public has been fed a steady diet of 'Coronavirus can kill anyone of any age, stay indoors' for some weeks now, not entirely a future-proofed message.

Housing as an investment, especially when you never plan to live there,
has a risk, just like any other investment

Negative equity hammers people who are forced to sell after e.g. job loss or divorce

Anyone who really stretched themselves with a mortgage will be in trouble if they lose their job, or have to accept a salary cut
or is an LL and can't obtain the same rent

In the case of foreign buyers, that risk includes exchange rate fluctuations

I get that @Rebelwithallthecause but that area is quite popular with renters, just wondering if that style of living in general will still be popular

I have heard discussion about the kind of recession this causes being very different to 2008, this is about a kind of externally imposed crisis and deliberately closing the economy rather than underlying structural problems in the economy apparently.

But, when things re open, I think there will a bit of bounce back and spending from pent up demand, but also many people with much less to spend and debts to repay. Also I think a lot depends on real and perceived risk. After months of masks and gloves, self isolation and daily death counts...will people really feel at ease to go to the pub and the hairdresser just because they technically can? Not sure.

The multimillion pound market for foreign oligarchs may be separate from the housing market that is relevant to 99% of British homeowners or buyers

There will undoubtedly be companies taking advantage of furloughing & I reckon the take up will be far more than the gov expected.

I wonder if the trend for high rise high luxury apartments will continue. There are so many now in Vauxhall/Nine Elms, its a huge building site

My biggest take from this so far is that I will always prioritise space in my living conditions over everything else! We had already moved to the sticks to get more space for our money, and I’m now tempted to go further into the countryside for more space!

I do wonder if the people who actually live in London will reconsider their locations and move further out.

There might before of a marked crash in London than elsewhere

@HoffiCoffi13 I had another thread about how I wanted to leave London for bigger garden & more space. We looked at this before corona but it seems even more desirable now. However when we looked at commute cost & time it wasn't really feasible. We are crossing our fingers that DH will be able to increase his wfh pattern. It's currently 1 day a week but if it can go up to 2 or 3 then we won't be so tied.

beebijobes yes it’s a tricky one. DH is London based but able to work from home regularly, so he commutes into London (from the midlands) two days a week and works from home the other days. It’s time consuming and costly but overall works out for us. If the balance was the other way (more days in London than at home) it probably wouldn’t work.