Studies corner

[Branster]

There are so many snippets of information regarding small tests, case studies and even research from all over the world, some interesting, some surprising, some hopeful. Too many and too small or sometimes obscure to make the main news

If you’d like to share you are welcome to join the thread.

I’ll make a start with these findings from Canada about a potential inhibitor drug

www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200402144526.htm

Yet other vitamin D correlation study - this one from America suggesting that it may reduce your risk of infection and that a higher vitamin D level is more protective than a simply adequate level. journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0239252#pone-0239252-g002

Preventive benefit of vitamin D doesnt increase once you get to 55 ng/mL - that's not a massively high level but is above level considered adequate in the uk.

Impact of baseline cases of cough and fever on UK COVID-19 diagnostic testing rates: estimates from the Bug Watch community cohort study

Extrapolates & estimates the diagnostic testing rates required July 2020 - June 2021, under 4 x 2nd wave scenarios.

Assuming that 80% of baseline cough or fever cases require testing,
testing demand in the UK would exceed current capacity for all of the period October 2020 to February 2021, peaking in December 2020.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.03.20187377v1

I have been looking for good studies on social behaviour during the pandemic, just out of interest. The first one I found actually has quite an interesting paragraph of where the UK failed in a Cygnet stimulation just two years before. Which is pretty accurate in how we are failing now...
Experts informed us that flu and virus pandemics had occurred with increasing frequency since the Asian flu of 1957 and that we should expect another one sooner or later, probably sooner. As a result, three simulations were run to test the country’s ability to deal with such a crisis and to make recommendations: Winter Willow (2007), Exercise Cygnus (2016), and, in Scotland, Exercise Iris (2018). All found serious failings, and among their recommendations they picked out: the need to stockpile equipment; the need for close coordination between levels of government; the need to shield those most at risk in care homes; and the heavy demands of testing, tracking and isolating.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-923X.12901

This is not a study but an article, but it collates much of the surveys on attitudes and compliance during Covid19 in the UK. If anyone is interested.

It’s main summary is that there has been high trust in UK and other countries in Medical and science professionals before Covid19. And that people will follow who and what they trust, despite confusing governmental messages.

Three‐quarters of the population believed that they could personally influence whether they were infected, and that not following the rules was the most important factor in spreading the disease.41 Most gave more priority to health than the economy. Trust in the government and confidence in its policies is sometimes not essential, it seems, for public compliance with rules

This rapid scoping review highlights that there are different considerations for different populations when encouraging behaviour change. For example prisoners could be overcrowded, people with disabilities or health needs may need to touch things.

It concludes also that most information out there is practical and not empirically based. We may have to wait a while for some very good social studies!

esrc.ukri.org/news-events-and-publications/evidence-briefings/encouraging-behaviour-change-to-reduce-covid-19-transmission-a-summary-of-two-rapid-evidence-reviews/

A walnut a day keeps the virus away. (not really - however it might enhance the effect of remdesivir if needed.)

science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/18/science.abd3255

I found this exciting, particularly as it seems to tie in with the promising very initial work on inhaled interferon:

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/genetic-immune-defects-may-impair-ability-fight-covid-19

Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany: a synthetic control method approach.

Masks reduced the daily growth rate of reported COVID-19 infections by ~40%

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13319.pdf

Lessons learnt from easing COVID-19 restrictions: an analysis of countries and regions in Asia Pacific and Europe

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32007-9/fulltext

Uses an adapted framework to examine the approaches taken by 9 high-income countries and regions that eased COVID restrictions:

Asia Pacific: Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea
Europe: Germany, Norway, Spain, UK

Comparative framework for COVID-19 lockdown exit strategies

Knowledge of infection status
. Indicators to monitor the epidemiological situation

Community engagement
.Safe policies for physical distancing and mask wearing
. Precautionary measures in schools and workplaces
. Communication to secure public trust and cooperation
. Protecting vulnerable populations
. Providing socioeconomic support

Public-health capacity
. Testing, tracing, and isolating
. Role of experts

Health-system capacity
. Treatment facilities
. Medical equipment
. Health-care workforce

Measures for border control
. Inbound travel restrictions

Very useful thanks. Especially the mask wearing.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590098620300518?via%3Dihub

Not sure if this one has been mentioned. Couldn't see it. Low Vitamin D and C associated with severe covid

R4 PM prog just talking about novavax vaccine entering stage 3 trials. Apparently quite different to Oxford one so this is really good news as a viable alternative potentially.

Has this been discussed already? (It's in English)
www.charite.de/service/pressemitteilung/artikel/detail/covid_19_berliner_forschende_legen_grundstein_fuer_eine_passive_impfung/

A systematic review and meta-analysis of published research data on COVID-19 infection-fatality rates

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v4

"Based on a systematic review and meta-analysis of published evidence on COVID-19 until May, 2020,&
the IFR of the disease across populations is 0.68% (0.53-0.82%).

However, due to very high heterogeneity in the meta-analysis,
it is difficult to know if this represents the true point estimate.

It is likely that, due to age and perhaps underlying comorbidities in the population, different places will experience different IFRs due to the disease
< Looking at the evidence has indicated this for some time, as has population density, health services, deprivation etc
The Uni Bonn Gangelt study suggested as low as 0.36% for Germany >

Given issues with mortality recording,
it is also likely that this represents an underestimate of the true IFR figure.

More research looking at age-stratified IFR is urgently needed to inform policy-making on this front."

Estimating excess 1-year mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic according to underlying conditions and age: a population-based cohort study

1-year mortality risk for various conditions (NHS GP data) under scenarios for different strategies:
full suppression / partial suppression / mitigation / do nothing

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30854-0/fulltext

"We report prevalence of underlying conditions defined by Public Health England guidelines (from March 16, 2020)
in individuals aged 30 years or older registered with a practice between 1997 and 2017,
using validated, openly available phenotypes for each condition.

We estimated 1-year mortality in each condition, developing simple models (and a tool for calculation) of excess COVID-19-related deaths,
assuming relative impact (as relative risks [RRs]) of the COVID-19 pandemic (compared with background mortality) of 1·5, 2·0, and 3·0 at differing infection rate scenarios,
including full suppression (0·001%), partial suppression (1%), mitigation (10%), and do nothing (80%)"

I’m not sure if this has already been mentioned. Study of children of healthcare workers - not peer reviewed as yet.

There were 68 (6.9%) participants with positive SARS-CoV-2 antibody tests indicative of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of these, 34/68 (50%) reported no symptoms. The presence of antibodies and the mean antibody titre was not influenced by age. Following multivariate analysis 4 independent variables were identified as significantly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. These were: known infected household contact; fatigue; gastrointestinal symptoms; and changes in sense of smell or taste.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.31.20183095v1

Susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Children and Adolescents Compared With Adults

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2771181

"In this meta-analysis,
there is preliminary evidence that children and adolescents have lower susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2, with an odds ratio of 0.56 for being an infected contact compared with adults.

There is weak evidence that children and adolescents play a lesser role than adults in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at a population level.

This study provides no information on the infectivity of children."

66% of the population of manu have antibodies to Covid www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.16.20194787v1

Antibody prevalence for SARS-CoV-2 in England following first peak of the pandemic: REACT2 study in 100,000 adults

This study was up to end June and found then that
slightly under 6% had antibodies, with 13% in London - the highest - and the lowest being 3% in the SW

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.12.20173690v2

Might explain Asian risk but not other ethnic minorities who are less likely to have this particular gene.

A recent genetic association study1 identified a gene cluster on chromosome 3 as a risk locus for respiratory failure upon SARS-CoV-2 infection. A new study2 comprising 3,199 hospitalized COVID-19 patients and controls finds that this is the major genetic risk factor for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospitalization (COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative). Here, we show that the risk is conferred by a genomic segment of ~50 kb that is carried by ~50% of people in South Asia and ~16% of people in Europe today.

www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2818-3

Yet another vitamin D correlation study - from Iran - showing the usual low levels associated with bad outcomes. journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0239799

Main source of coronavirus misinformation stated to be the american president int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/evanega-et-al-coronavirus-misinformation-submitted-07-23-20-1/080839ac0c22bca8/full.pdf

Children and young adults key to virus spread in India www.princeton.edu/news/2020/09/30/largest-covid-19-contact-tracing-study-date-finds-children-key-spread-evidence

Why Do Not Resusitate orders for Covid patients are not as bad as people think - attempted resusitation didnt work for these patients.jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2771090