Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in household and community settings in the United Kingdom
Transmission calculations - age, incubation time, attack rate etc BEFORE lockdown
Dataset was people who developed symptoms between 24th January 2020 and 13th March 2020
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.19.20177188v1
"In the UK, prior to the implementation of social and physical distancing measures, we estimate an
overall household SAR of 37% < secondary attack rate = probability of transmission between first case and each household contact>
a serial interval of 4.67 days
an R0 of 1.85
and a household reproduction number of 2.33
We find lower secondary attack rates in larger households
There is some suggestion that where the primary case is a child, household SARs are higher and the serial interval is shorter.
Conversely serial intervals were longer if the household contact was a child or an older adult.
Using point source exposures we estimate a mean incubation period of around 4.5 days.
Our estimated household SAR in the UK is greater than that reported in China, Taiwan and South Korea estimated household SARs ranging from 5% to 30% (4-10).
Making comparisons across studies is challenging due to differences in follow-up, symptom ascertainment or testing of contacts,
however, the higher household SAR in the UK could reflect differences in isolation and infection control measures taken to reduce spread.