Taking into account how YOU see the situation, when do YOU personally believe we will start returning to normal?

[Whitefeather01]

Just that really. When do YOU personally think restrictions will start to be lifted? Schools going back? Travel resumed? Etc.

I think the schools will go back after May half term, then a gentle return to "normal". As people have said the economy cannot survive indefinitely so there has to be a balance.

I'm starting to think a little sooner than I'd originally imagined -- late May / June.

This isn't because of good news, quite the opposite. 44% of tests are now positive, as opposed to 22% last week. I know that they're only on the whole testing people with a strong likelihood of covid-19, but the symptoms aren't THAT specific, there are lots of false negatives, and some people are tested for other reasons. So the virus is ripping through the population fast and lockdown looks as if it was too late. Of course still absolutely worth doing, to flatten curve as much as possible.

It took 2 years for the Spanish Flu Pandemic to end and that included a mutation that was so deadly people died within hours and so didn't have much of a chance to pass it on. We know more science and have incredible computing power now but how much of an impact on the timeframe that will have we don't know.

I don’t know when everything will be back to normal but schools will not be opening as normal next term. Unless something drastic happens to change the plan, they have closed schools for the rest of the school year and will be teaching remotely and reorganising exams/qualifications.

I think schools after May half term.. And same for some businesses and public transport etc.

If we look at whuhan as example they have started lifting restrictions after 11 weeks from full lock down.
It will be interesting to see whether there is a resurgence in cases once restrictions are eased there.

There is economic reasons to move things along, but also the real risk of public fatigue.. Already less than two weeks in and I have colleagues and friends already saying "oh well I haven't any symptoms and neither does my bf/mother/Doris down the road so surely it's OK to go to their house"

There is danger of civil unrest and a mutiny.. Currently the government have the goodwill of the people but it won't last.
Already there are complaints about over zealous police.. Imagine in another month.. And if you have not been affected personally by covid, don't know anyone ill, live away from hotpots etc... People have already demonstrated how self entitled and selfish they can be.. In a situation like above I can see many abandoning social distancing etc.

The government will want to avoid this at all cost and will need some "good news" stories.. Schools going back will be first.

Schools going back will be first

Yet the poster on MN who is in China has said the opposite is happening there and schools are going back last.

Professor Chris Whitty, England's Chief Medical Officer, said on March 12, prior to the lockdown, that he expected the UK to reach the peak of the pandemic in about 10 to 14 weeks..

So two weeks ago it was 10-14 weeks..

Sept

Nope, I think you've read that wrong @monkeytoesofdoom. We are only a couple of weeks behind Spain and they are about to peak, is my understanding.

August. I think they’ll loosen the regulations to see if cases rise again, before reopening the schools.

Lockdown technically over? End of May.

Schools go back? September.

Staggered work forces back after lockdown.

Travel will be minimal flights and those that do will need to take some kind of test - around Mid to late June.

Completely normal I think this time next year.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/01/peak-uk-coronavirus-cases-deaths-when/

That is total rubbish. The peak is expected just after Easter according to the deputy chief medical officer, about two weeks behind Italy's.

Back before lockdown, Whitty said 10-14 weeks, mid may at the earliest.
We're at the stage of waiting and seeing if the lockdown has helped. So a fortnight off 10-14 is 8-12 or around 10 weeks.

If lockdown has helped it will have flattened the curve and pushed that peak down but also back to the end of may, early June.

But if that's total nonsense, that's fine, I'm only basing what I post in the information from the relevant sources.

I’m also of the opinion that the restrictions will end sooner rather than later. The economy can’t take much more and, rightly or wrongly, money will trump saving lives. It’s inevitable that the virus will continue to spread, but I disagree with the idea that lockdown will be tightened and then relaxed on repeat. Compliance will reduce over time, and each time we came out of lockdown there would be a huge spike in infections as everyone rushes to do everything all at once. I predict a slow lifting of restrictions in May, so after six weeks of lockdown, with it taking perhaps another six weeks for all restrictions to be lifted. I expect restrictions on mass gatherings to be lifted temporarily over the autumn but perhaps be introduced over flu season.

Yup this - what she said

The link I posted was a quote from the Deputy Chief Medical Officer from today. I'd be more inclined to believe that than something which was said weeks ago. Things are changing every day.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/11165323/when-coronavirus-pandemic-peak/

Relevant Quotes:
"Professor Chris Whitty, England's Chief Medical Officer, said on March 12, prior to the lockdown, that he expected the UK to reach the peak of the pandemic in about 10 to 14 weeks."

"That would have meant the number of infections would not peak before the Easter break, but would hit the UK hardest in the May half-term holidays."

"However, on March 26, Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr Jenny Harries said cases will rise for “two to three weeks” then fall if Brits respect the lockdown."

"She said: “If people have cut down their social interactions, we would start to see a change in the graph."

“The peak will be pushed forward but the height will be lower and we can manage NHS hospital care safely.”

"This brings us to somewhere around Easter time, which is on April 12, provided everyone sticks to the rules and stays at home, but could be shifted to a later date as things play out in reality."

So basically one expert is saying 3 weeks and even admits it could shift to later date as it plays out in reality.

The simple truth is, it's all guess work. Some will believe the three weeks, but I don't. I believe it'll be much later. We're not close to peak death rates yet. Remember, in the briefing the guy said "if we keep deaths under 20k we'll have done well" which means they're expecting more than 20k. So far it's less than 1/4 of that. There's no way three weeks will see the peak.

The link I posted includes the quote from the Deputy Chief Medical Officer but it's from days ago..

I'm just hoping that international travel within Europe is vaguely normal by the summer holidays. I live in a different country to my parents/sibling and I'd like to see them at some point this year. I'm pretty optimistic that this will be the case.

10-12 weeks for the end of lockdown and so mid June but the social distancing will still be enforced for a couple of moths after that. Schools will probably go back in September. Flights will start again with some regularity mid Julyish if we are lucky.

I’m not sure we will ever return to normal.

I'm with Sapphiresunrise, and I'll go with early June for hotels and restaurants opening again.

The Edinburgh Festival, Fringe, Book, Film Festivals have all been cancelled which leads me to suspect that these measures will persist through the summer at least.

@Hydradance but that could be because they take a lot of prior organisation for several weeks / months before the actual event.

I think after these 3 weeks of lockdown there will be a further 6 weeks lockdown... so in June shops and businesses should start opening... schools back in September and I'm hopeful me and dh will be able to go abroad at the end of the year.

The economy is people’s lives in so many ways. People will die without it. I think schools will be back on 1st June. Lockdown will last until the end of April at the latest. Those in vulnerable groups may have to be on lockdown much longer. Half the workforce are currently key workers and out at work even during lockdown.