Why are people misunderstanding?

[Vates]

The reason we are on lockdown is to stop the spread and to not overwhelm the NHS at one time. Not to prevent deaths! People will die, lots of us will get it, a huge percentage of the population.

Of course I am worried; I have a family member and my best friend who is in the vulnerable group and it is heartbreaking. And then my worries extend to other peoples families.

But it seems like people are not willing to realise this? I feel like I am going mad. Even more mad than usual.

I am obeying lock down rules and trying to protect all people I can.

Well the op is repeating that we might as well stop with the lockdown, and as long as that is being said I will keep saying my bit.

By telling oeople falsely that the lockdown has no point she could influence people to break the rules. That is unacceptable.

Bucketofgin the current approach and rationale is:

If the virus, which is v easily caught, is allowed to get through the population unchecked then trying to treat those who need it (elderly, underlying conditions etc) will overwhelm the NHS, they won't be able to treat all the people in those groups, and that will result in more deaths. Also, if everyone is ill at once then it presents probs for the economy.

If you try and regulate the spread, you can slow it so that the NHS has a better chance of treating all the people who need hosp treatment.

For vast majority of people there will be no need for hosp, but in a while population, a minority who do is still an awful lot of people.

For those at risk, they will need to stay at home, to try to avoid catching it, while the ones less at risk do, and (hopefully) develop immunity. Once most people are immune, the virus won't be able to take hold, and the at risk can come out again. If they do get ill, there is resource to treat them. That's how vaccines work, if most people are immune then the virus finds it hard to spread.

There are a lot of unknowns at the mo but that is the current strategy.

By telling oeople falsely that the lockdown has no point she could influence people to break the rules. That is unacceptable.

But surely people are allowed to make up their own mind, no one takes a Brandon's postings as the gospel. Yours included.

Dzundza where has op said there is no point in lockdown so break it?

Her posts are totally in line with the strategy and I think it's totally reasonable to worry about the middle and long term impact on people's lives esp mental health.

@BeetrootRocks thanks, that is what I thought was the case. But surely that means the lockdown WILL save lives?

What would I know I’ve been locked down for weeks anyway!

I worry about the longterm effects of the lockdown, is that unacceptable as well?

Yes it will in the short term.

I think govts medics etc are still trying to understand it all. This is an unprecedented global situation.

I am concerned about the impact in the middle and long term. Which is not to say I don't think this is the right thing to do right now.

Dzundza - I have stayed home and avoided all contact, apart from buying necessary supplies from the corner shop and am not saying to break the lock down. I am saying that people are going to die despite of the lock down. It is a delaying measure rather than a cure. And I say that with relatives I love/adore who are at risk.

I think what would be really really good would be

Confirming whether having it makes you immune (I don't think they are sure? And if not all bets are off)
Antibody test so that anyone who is immune can go about more normal life including obviously key workers, keep things ticking over in wider world, volunteer etc and of course reduce possible MH issues etc

People will die, but far fewer people overall will die

Because

The health service won't get overrun. This affects all illnesses not just the virus
Over time new treatment will emerge. A second wave is less bad if we can treat it better
It is likely that a vaccine will be available before most people end up catching it, if we can keep it slow enough

My understanding is that roughly the same / or a large number of people will die over a winter of secondary pneumonia brought on by virus or other illness, but they won’t all die at once, and the element of everyone contracting this at once will swamp the NHS. I’m probably got it wrong.

Yes, definitely. A test to know if you've had it would be best.

I get incredible frustrated with people trying to find a reason why their want to leave the house is essential.

I see that lockdown is currently needed so as not flood the (under funded, under staffed) NHS with coronavirus case. We don't have enough ventilators for staters and it will also affect the care of none coronavirus cases.

If we get it slower, then the pressure on the NHS is less. The Theory is herd immunity. Yes currently lockdown is essential to stop the spread of it, it will save lives and it's incredible selfish to ignore lockdown. This is going to hit the UK massively and people need to do their bit to help reduce the spread.

The NHS staff are going out to frontline work, all we have to do is listen and stay in.

But surely lockdown won't help on that front, because as soon as everyone is out again the numbers will go up and overwhelm the nhs again?

What do you mean? I think most people are aware of this, which is why they are isolating and trying to hold off as long a possible. People who have cancer, elderly and other conditions will probably be isolating for a year or so until a vaccine is found. It's sad but true.

'I get incredible frustrated with people trying to find a reason why their want to leave the house is essential.'

I haven't seen a single person on this thread who has said that.

@Beetrootrocks that is NOT the current strategy. That is the herd immunity strategy which got sidelined when the Imperial College report came out. The current strategy is suppression, not mitigation.

I don't think they really know what they're doing tbh.

You can't suppress ie keep everyone indoors for the 18-24 months it's estimated for a vaccine, if they can even find one.

Have you got some links to say they are going to keep us locked in, indefinitely?

That will be catastrophic on a number of other fronts.

Yeah, I haven't heard ANYONE in this thread saying they've broke the lock down rules. I haven't despite of my declining mental health. I am inside my flat apart from when I need food. Which is once a day at most.

I find some comfort in music and Netflix and my Sister video calling me, it was only my very first video call yesterday but I am trying. To see her and my nephew and the gorgeous fur babies. I used to look after them and catch the bus twice a week to see them. They have my heart.

pinkandblue15 not everyone will be sick enough to need a hospital bed. Ideally we'd like only enough people to get sick at any one time to fill those beds and no more.
Then we want them to get better and out of those beds before the next lot of sick people come along. That's too much to hope for but that's the general idea.

After a while many of your neighbours, family and shop staff will be people who had it and got over it so you will be able to mix with them without being infected.

On the latest projections, we are looking at around 20,000 UK dead, quite a few of whom would have died of their existing conditions by this time or shortly after.

This is a lot less than the deaths caused by the Great Smog of 1952-53.

(When the PM was temporarily indisposed with a stroke, but this was kept a secret.)

And I say that with relatives I love/adore who are at risk.

We are all at risk. Some of us (older, other medical conditions) at much greater risk than others (young, healthy). But even the young and healthy are at some risk.

The antibody test will be a massive help, because it will mean that you will know that you can safely mix with people who have the virus with little risk of catching it, and with those who haven’t had it with little risk of passing it to them. People with antibodies become ‘safe people’ who can go out and about without helping the virus to spread. So the economy can move towards a more normal state.

Those who haven’t had it would still need to practice social distancing, but could safely have the company of people who have antibodies.

Another (yet again) p.s. if I had any symptoms then I would self isolate. I am not taking anybody catching this lightly and will follow government protocol. Despite my opinion on the matter. Stay safe guys and I wish you your family all the best

nellodee herd immunity didn't stop being an aim. It's still the most important part of this. We can't all stay in until there's a vaccine.