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This is what has always troubled me about total lockdown

335 replies

Makeitgoaway · 27/03/2020 08:13

I don't understand how we get out of it.

Of course, it should reduce transmission while we're all locked down but unless the whole world has it under control, as soon as we start getting back to normal, it will all start again. As they're beginning to see in China.

Is this going to become a regular way of life, with lockdown annually or every few years?

OP posts:
Ereshkigalangcleg · 29/03/2020 12:13

The main issue with covid isn't so much who and how many die, but the type of illness that requires even younger and healthier people to stay in hospital hooked to a ventilator to survive. Death rates would and will be a lot worse when all ventilators are being used.
It's the time they have to spend in hospital - about 2 weeks.
It's how it also affects health workers, who won't be able to work if most of them get ill because they are exhausted and will be more exposed.
It's the consuming of health resources when other diseases and many conditions also require hospitals and treatment and health services were already stretched.
It's the fact that even a 0.1% mortality rate among the young means a lot of people dying because this virus spreads very fast and very easily.
It's the bodies mounting up with no capacity to bury them properly.

Yes, this is the issue that many people appear unable to wrap their brains around. This is a crisis. We need to reduce the burden on the NHS in the next few weeks, then review the situation after the peak, based on all the information available, including economic modelling. Then look at costs/benefits etc.

Ereshkigalangcleg · 29/03/2020 12:20

It's really shit that we are in the middle of a pandemic but whole country lockdown is unsustainable. The sooner people start accepting reality, the better.

The sooner you realise that whatever you think, the UK government isn't going to change its current lockdown plan because a few unqualified randoms on the internet disagree, the better.

StirCrazed · 29/03/2020 12:23

Lol, yeah come back in a few weeks and tell me how people are feeling about the lockdown then. People are boringly predictable. Lockdown isn't sustainable.

Ereshkigalangcleg · 29/03/2020 12:23

You sound like you can't wait.

DCOkeford · 29/03/2020 12:23

It's really shit that we are in the middle of a pandemic but whole country lockdown is unsustainable. The sooner people start accepting reality, the better

Agreed.

Ereshkigalangcleg · 29/03/2020 12:25

Sadly DC you're still just going to have to get on with it for the next few weeks, like all of us, whatever you think about it.

midgebabe · 29/03/2020 12:26

Well hopefully the resultant global recession and the efforts put in by the most poorly paid in society to keep the country running will make more people think that the old way of living, held to ransom by GDP is wrong , which is what is needed for change.

Just like we couldn't stop women working for long after they kept the munitions factories going in WW2 , we will see we can't treat people as worthless just because they don't have rich families.

HoffiCoffi13 · 29/03/2020 12:27

The thing is, the government know it’s not sustainable. That’s why they’ve talked all along about timing being everything.
They’ll be watching places like Italy and Spain carefully where civil unrest is starting to become a reality. Observing what’s happening there will give an indication as to how long people will tolerate it here (contrary to what people on here seem to think, people from those countries aren’t angelically following the rules without any murmurings of discontent).
It will all be taken into consideration.

Ereshkigalangcleg · 29/03/2020 12:31

Yes and it should, I agree with you. I agree it's not sustainable for a long period. But I think the priority at the moment needs to be to reduce as far as possible the strain on the health service in the next few weeks.

HoffiCoffi13 · 29/03/2020 12:32

Yes of course. We’re one week in. No measures are going to be lifted for a while.

StirCrazed · 29/03/2020 12:34

That's true as well Hoffi, and why we are being trickle truthed. It's also what makes it a bit bloody pointless doing it. I get it. It shifts blame in the public eye to those people 'breaking the rules' and away from 'why the fuck didn't we order ppe and ventilators eight weeks ago' and 'omfg loads of people are going to die' panic but I wish people could catch on a bit. Or maybe I don't really. Maybe it would just be mass panic and rioting already. I'll tell myself that to comfort myself a bit. At least it gives me time to cash in all my isas.

YgritteSnow · 29/03/2020 12:34

Soon it's going to become normal. You might not believe that but it will. Humans can get used to anything. I'm seeing it with my friends in Spain. At first it was bitter complaining, questioning and bending the rules, just like it has been here. Now gradually you can see them coming to terms with it and adapting. It's just what we humans do.

Pliudev · 29/03/2020 12:38

I'm out of this. Things are bad enough without some of the things being written on here. As for critical thinking, I think vast numbers of experts (including the WHO) were very 'critical' of the stance formerly taken by the British government which, I repeat, had not been proven and had no basis in science.

StirCrazed · 29/03/2020 12:43

Check out the daily mail comments section to the idea of lockdown til June. That's always a good insight into the mind of the masses. People are at heart selfish. Lockdown for a few weeks - great, get to be smug and 'stay home and save lives'. Suggest any longer and it's all 'throw the elderly/vulnerable under a bus'. I don't see people adapting to their new life on benefits and under lockdown any time soon.

DCOkeford · 29/03/2020 12:59

Sadly DC you're still just going to have to get on with it for the next few weeks, like all of us, whatever you think about it

Its so sad that you can't see the short-sightedness of your attitude.

The lockdown itself is (or should be) literally the least of our worries.

The recession that is to come will last literally decades, the effects will last probably more than a century.

Nobody really cares about having to stay at home - you're right, its no immediate hardship. Its the long term fall out that terrifies me.

To paraphrase a currently popular mantra:

If you're not shit-scared of the coming recession, then you don't fully understand how awful it will be

DippyAvocado · 29/03/2020 13:04

Do you not think that allowing a highly contagious virus to run freely throughout the population, infecting possibly 80% of the workforce and leaving us without a functioning healthcare system would not also adversely affect the economy?

midgebabe · 29/03/2020 13:04

A century long recession! Wow. Last seen in the Middle Ages?

midgebabe · 29/03/2020 13:04

Oh dippy, you are not living up to your name there!

DCOkeford · 29/03/2020 13:06

Do you not think that allowing a highly contagious virus to run freely throughout the population, infecting possibly 80% of the workforce and leaving us without a functioning healthcare system would not also adversely affect the economy?

The experts do actually agree that the economic impact of that would be far less than the current strategy, but there will be more cases of coronavirus as a result.

This has been decided to be an unacceptable trade off.

BigChocFrenzy · 29/03/2020 13:20

The govt looked at the 3 Imperial College scenarios:

  1. Do nothing - ½ million extra deaths
  2. Some measures, but no lockdowns- ¼ million extra deaths
  3. Full measures - lockdowns, closing scholls etc - under 30,000 deaths

According to the Times report, they choose 3) in a meeting on 12 March
because the other 2 options were unacceptable

BigChocFrenzy · 29/03/2020 13:23

(paywall) Inside No 10 How Boris Johnson changed his priorities: save lives first, and then salvage the economy_

This report helps us understand how the PM and govt came to the current policy

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-ten-days-that-shook-britain-and-changed-the-nation-for-ever-spz6sc9vb

The meeting that will change British society for a generation took place on the evening of Thursday, March 12.
......
“There was a collision between the science and reality.”
......
Dominic Cummings, the prime minister’s senior aide,
became convinced that Britain would be better able to resist a lethal second wave of the disease next winter
if Whitty’s prediction that 60% to 80% of the population became infected was right and
^the UK developed “herd immunity”.

At a private engagement at the end of February, Cummings outlined the government’s strategy.
^
Those present say it was “herd immunity, protect the economy and if that means some pensioners die, too bad”.^
^
At the Sage meeting on March 12, a moment now dubbed the “Domoscene conversion”,

Cummings changed his mind.
In this “penny-drop moment”, he realised he had helped set a course for catastrophe.

Until this point, the rise in British infections had been below the European average.
Now they were above it and on course to emulate Italy, where the picture was bleak.

A minister said: “Seeing what was happening in Italy was the galvanising force across government.”

By Friday, March 13, Cummings had become the most outspoken advocate of a tough crackdown.

“Dominic himself had a conversion,”
a senior Tory said.

“He’s gone from ‘herd immunity and let the old people die’,
to
‘let’s shut down the country and the economy.’”
.......
Department of Health officials had impressed on Hancock that the death rate in Wuhan province was 3.4% when the hospitals were overrun and 0.7% elsewhere in China.^
.....
Johnson had also been queasy about the previous original approach.

“Boris hated the language of ‘herd immunity’ because it implied that it was OK for people to die,”
a senior source said.
“Matt hated the language because it implied we had given up.
You’ve got to fight.”
.....
But when Johnson gathered his key advisers in the cabinet room at 9.15am last Saturday
there was unanimity.

Whitty and Vallance explained that Britain had been four weeks behind Italy “and now we are closer”.

The two experts, together with Hancock and Cummings, all delivered to Johnson one message:
“Now is the moment to act.”

The prime minister agreed:
“We must work around the clock and take all necessary measures.”

One of those present said:
“The mood in the room was astonishing.
You could tell that something very significant had shifted.”

Ereshkigalangcleg · 29/03/2020 13:30

Its so sad that you can't see the short-sightedness of your attitude.

Whatever my attitude is, or yours, neither of us have any influence on this situation. The government have chosen a course and I don't believe they could now do anything else.

DCOkeford · 29/03/2020 13:36

I think my concern is that the current strategy is not going to be sustainable for the length of time it will need to be in place to be fully effective.

The government will have to pivot, and we will be left with the worst of all worlds in which we have trashed the economy and suffered a huge number of deaths.

DCOkeford · 29/03/2020 13:40

@BigChocFrenzy

The problem with those figures is that they don't take into account the deaths that will be brought about as a result of the lockdown measures.

They only look at one side of what is in reality a multi-faceted issue.

StirCrazed · 29/03/2020 13:42

Yes, the only influence we have is over ourselves/immediate circle. I can't think of any good ways to protect my family much from a great depression (any top tips?) - the virus is the least of my concerns now my vulnerable are self isolating.

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