Over by Easter?

[tanff]

I've just read the worst or the peak could be over by Easter.
What would that mean ?
Would shops etc start opening and pubs?

I really, really hope so but I very much doubt it.

News out today from Imperial:

Professor Ferguson explained that while there was some uncertainty, if current measures work as expected, then intensive care demand would ‘peak in approximately two to three weeks and then decline thereafter’.

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196477/j-ideas-neil-ferguson-tells-mps-lockdown/

I don't believe that. Also, we are likely to be in and out of measures for a long time to manage the traffic into hospitals.

Really really hope so. I do think this will be over much more quicker than people expect.

I really hope so.
It might sound cheesy but it's been a wake up call how much I take things for granted.
Walking to the park and sitting with a cuppa.
Taking the dog for a walk down the beach
Concerts etc

I don't believe that. Also, we are likely to be in and out of measures for a long time to manage the traffic into hospitals.

You don’t believe what - the expert from Imperial?

I think it sounds positive. I was getting very annoyed with people saying this would last until June 2021 based on no scientific fact or knowledge.

I think we may get a series of mini waves? But none as bad as the first peak. I think it’s a case of bracing ourselves for the next few weeks and then hopefully we’ll be over the worst.

I know everybody said the kids won’t be back until September but was that actually based on anything the government said? I’d love them to go back May/June.

Dong I can believe we might see a peak soon. My point is that things aren't going to go back to normal for a long time.

Nothing is going back to normal after 3 weeks. It’s 8 weeks in Wuhan and they’re only just getting going and they followed the rules much better than we seem to be doing.

I don’t think things will go totally back to normal for a while; but I hope we’ll be out of lockdown and some places may begin to open again, and things like limited weddings and christenings can start happening again.

We’re probably a long way from packed restaurants and gigs, though.

A lot of people will still become ill after the peak and measures will need to be taken to ensure we don’t have further peaks. I think we might see some relaxation of measures, I guess in reverse order to how they were implemented maybe, with schools going back and pubs/restaurants opening not til later on

can't see it getting any better this after summer

we are only just starting it in the UK

"Over by Easter?"

No chance.

That's just a sop to keep people from panicking. If you dig a little deeper, we're looking at 12-18 months, possibly more. There may be slight relaxation of restrictions throughout the time. But Easter? No.

I am sorry op, but my understanding is that it will peaking by easter, not ending, and even then it will take a long time to head down to the point we can all go to the pub. It will end, but perhaps a little later more reason to eat lots of chocolate and ask the children to cover the place in easter decorations.

I am thinking easter grotto!

@PicsInRed where have you seen that information? I agree that this won't be over by Easter but there is no where we will stay under restriction, 'slight' relaxation or not for 12 - 18 months. There would be no economy to return to.

The worldometer stats for new cases and deaths in the UK are much lower today, surely this is positive? It says somewhere that how we are recording them is changing. But doesn't say how. Anyone know?

It doesn't end until we have a global vaccine or the virus mutants into a more benign form. This wont be over by Easter. If we stay inside the deaths will reduce but as soon as people start mingling again they will rocket.

If and that is a big IF, everyone stuck to the guidelines then we will get over it quicker however from what I have seen over the past week that isn't going to happen.

I think it’s more likely to peak over Easter, it will take at least 3 weeks after the peak for things to start returning to any normality. Look at Italy which has reached peak and numbers are very slowly coming down. China was in lockdown for 3 months. Who knows what will happen but I can’t see this being over in the next 3 weeks.

I won't believe it until I have confirmation that the MNetter Corona Virus Research Team were consulted before the release of this information from experts at Imperial College. Uh uh! Nope! 👎🏻

@PolloDePrimavera in England they have now decided to awaiting family permission before releasing death figures. This is very suspect I think and just seems to be a way of fiddling the numbers. I also think other devolved nations are unhappy about that as they each released their own figures yesterday.

Yes they definitely release numbers piecemeal; for eg Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland often come first.

England numbers were released vey late yesterday evening.

Also new cases is the trend to look at I believe.

@milkjetmum thanks for that. I had heard Germany were reporting the underlying illness (if there was one) as the cause of death, so therefore figured might seem less clear. And I wondered if it was that. Ah, all less optimistic then!!

@tobee thanks also. Hmmm. Because I thought one worrying effect might be that some people would feel vindicated in mixing and so on, if it appeared to be less serious I mean.