Lockdown - how long do you think this will go on for?

[Minionmomma]

Just that really...

other countries keep extending their lockdown so expecting same to happen here - how long exactly.. no idea

Months then @lubeybooby ?

I think a minimum of 12 weeks.
Then not back to normal completely.
And I wouldn’t be surprised if we return to the stage later in the year.

I know we are all in this together but the prospect of 3 months is pretty bleak for me, as I’m sure it is for many people. I completely understand the necessity this but three months 😭😭 maybe more

I read this article written by a cinder person who has just come out of 7 weeks of lockdown (still some restrictions of movement in place) and she basically said it gets easier, try not to fight it. We will all get through this. But still 😩😩

I want it over now but I think at least till September when the new school year starts

I think school planning on September.
Govt backing for closed companies 3 months.

So i’d say maybe limited return to work by end may but who knows.

There is no question the longer this goes on the worse the longer term economic impact will be. I dont think we or anyone else can affort a lock down till September

September, with some restrictions lifted slowly fro. July

You’ll be lucky if they go back to school in September. Seriously. Look at Italy’s figures. We are 3 weeks behind them and they have a better lockdown than us. Once they get back to normality then we will 3 weeks after that. Latest research says Spring 2021.

I think China started to relax theirs after 7 weeks. Ours isn’t as stringent as theirs so I’d expect it to take longer.

The problem is there is no cure or vaccine. The only way to not spread it or get it is to isolate. Even then it will pop up again because of the asymptotic people.

The government measures are to ensure healthcare can be maintained to help people who need it. It’s also to reduce loss of lives indirect or direct.

Without herd immunity brought about by a vaccine or natural community spread, you are talking 12-18 months.

The government will be phasing measures in and out. The biggest risk is when we re enter the winter pressure in Nov.

The triggers for implementing measures are demand for icu beds.

we are not going to be locked down until Spring 2021 there would be nothing to return to

I think probably 6 weeks full lockdown and then easing up from there. They have too - this is about enabling te NHS to manage and also ensuring there is an economy to return to

The spring 2021 is vaccine date - the research then showed periods of on and off. Both another study and the person who wrote it have already questioned it

www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

I'm happy to accept September or longer. But I honestly have no clue how we will financially recover from this. I'm not prepared to work in a supermarket because my husband and ds1 are vulnerable but I have lost so many clients this week and husband is no longer working.

I would say full lockdown for at least 8 weeks. There will be social distancing measures in place for a lot longer than that though. People will be expected to work from home, and kids will be off school until at least September.

The critical breakthrough, pre vaccine, will be if they can establish lots of people have an immunity. But it leaves those who don’t in a limbo.

I live in a town completely dependant on tourism. We have no winter business (since 2008) so usually work 7 days a week for 7 months to make enough to keep us going for the winter. This is already eating into our annual income, most of us are at the bottom of our savings. As self employed people (the business owners) we are not assured of getting any financial help. We are pretty much hand to mouth since the last recession. Without help there is no incentive to keep our businesses closed for longer than the initial 3 weeks. There are tourists around amazingly enough, even if they are just day trippers.

For that reason I think things will be back to normal by June. Having said all of that, I am in Ireland where we are politely expected not to mingle, not to go out, shops and schools closed for two weeks so far, so not quite the same as the UK but I imagine that British tourism dependant areas and small businesses are no different to us.

@Quartz2208 we don’t have full lockdown though do we. Until that happens then it continues to spread and it continues to put pressure on ICU resources. The figures out today from public health England, the experts, say Spring 2021

But don’t take my word for it. I work with scientists by the way and so far they’ve been bang on. We knew weeks before that the schools would shut when they did.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised

I think at least six weeks and the fact people aren’t complying well at least where I am it’s likely to be a lot longer unfortunately.

I think 5 weeks on full lockdown with a gradual lifting over the same period.

Im looking at the numbers daily and whilst increasing, they dont appear to be surging yet, and valuable time has been bought. Heres hoping enough to allow services to cope and people to survive.

@probablysue but your link is 11 days out of date

Neil Ferguson of Imperial College has said TODAY that “while there was some uncertainty, if current measures work as expected, then intensive care demand would peak in approximately two to three weeks and then decline thereafter”.

Given that, @probablysue’s prediction of spring 2021 is way off the mark.

Although restrictions have lifted somewhat in China, in many areas they are still much stricter than the uk so not a useful comparison.
My DD’s school in China may reopen in early April, but it has been shut since 24th January. Restrictions are very tough for those entering the country eg compulsory quarantine despite schools going back and restaurants opening.
Perhaps September for schools here, but as we don’t have a full lockdown it will probably take longer.

I think it will keep getting extended. Those arseholes going to the beach for family days out and suddenly all congregating on the beach will put us back. Very annoying as many of us are sat at home doing this right getting cabin fever for nothing!