Lockdown - how long do you think this will go on for?

[Minionmomma]

Just that really...

@probablysue

But the UK has always made it clear that this isnt about containment its about ensuring the NHS survives whilst balancing the needs of the economy. Trump (though completely out of touch with his back after Easter rhetoric) is right you cannot keep a country on lockdown and expect there to be a country to come back to. Something China are also well aware of.

Neither do I suspect we want a full lockdown this has always been about spreading it so the NHS can cope and if they feel that this type of lockdown is sufficient then so be it

A careful balancing act will be needed otherwise there could be more issues from how we tried to solve the CV problem than CV itself

vaggie since when has 12 weeks led us to August?!

Checking back in

Minimum 12 weeks full lockdown

I think there will be a phased approach after Easter. The risk to under 40s is low and I think they are going to work on a herd immunity model keeping the most vulnerable supported and fenced off for a while longer.

It will be a balancing act between the lives of others with other conditions and Covid-19 patients. One people are in ICU the odds are not in their favour so it will come down to a question of resources to my mind.

Economically the impact on the lives of everyone in society will have to be taken into account- the government can't keep going on paying 80% of income indefinitely. The impact on tax payers will potentially be felt for years and the misery of a global recession will claim many more lives.

I think we will be looking at 4-6 weeks before phasing kicks in.

The govt will be looking at the scientists for the data and only relaxing restrictions when it makes sense to do that. The current research coming from Imperial/Mrc/WHO says the following (published 26th March)

Our analysis therefore suggests that healthcare demand can only be kept within manageable levels through the rapid adoption of public health measures (including testing and isolation of cases and wider social distancing measures) to suppress transmission, similar to those being adopted in many countries at the current time. If a suppression strategy is implemented early (at 0.2 deaths per 100,000 population per week) and sustained, then 38.7 million lives could be saved whilst if it is initiated when death numbers are higher (1.6 deaths per 100,000 population per week) then 30.7 million lives could be saved. Delays in implementing strategies to suppress transmission will lead to worse outcomes and fewer lives saved.

So these experts are saying we have to have social distancing. They aren’t letting the schools back as that’s a transmission hotspot. You all need to be prepared for the long haul

www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

We will not be locked down until 2021. I've been furloughed, no way will the government be able to carry on paying mine and others' wages for a whole year.

I think full lockdown will go on for about 12 weeks with a gradual relaxation of the restrictions if we see it working. Schools open in September.

I’d guess 12 weeks

If only people could stick to the basic requirements of social distancing and washing hands it would be much shorter. Unfortunately people are still mixing, having parties etc. I could easily cope with just seeing family but staying 6 feet away but others seem to think it's ok to carry on as normal which means it will drag out.

It would be nice to see the Italian numbers coming down faster (although they do seem to be stable now).

They have been in lockdown since the 10th so, if you assume an incubation period of 5-6 days and that people present at a hospital at t+7, then those from the worst infectivity rate should have presented about the 23rd.

From then on, although starting from a higher base, the infectivity rate should fall off a cliff and new infections should initially rise more slowly or stabilise and then collapse. The key is showing that the new infectivity rate is less than 1.

If, during lockdown, one case infects 0.75 new cases (or every 4 infects 3), then the half life would be 12 days (based on 5 day incubation). So every 5 days the number of new infections should halve. If you start at 10,000 and release the lockdown at 200 new cases, then you need about 5-6 half life’s of 60-72 days.

On the above basis, which is subject to huge assumptions, you would imagine a lockdown of 2-3 months.

The Italian numbers over the next week will be very informative.

Every 12 days they should halve (typo from above).

Study from imperial predicted peak at 5th April. Thats faster than initial projections.
Im still thinking 5 weeks full lockdown with 5 weeks phasing out, and social distancing to continue for at least 6 months

As posted on the other thread, it won’t even be twelve weeks of lock down unless something goes wrong badly.

Imperial is strongly advising the government against it, as they feel it will lead to a resurgence, I don’t really understand the science, they want social distancing instead.

The peak is expected at Easter, then it tails down, I’d expect maybe he extends for a week or two after, then slowly lifts restrictions, with social venues remaining closed for the twelve week duration but getting people back to work to ensure all other companies fully operational. Where jobs can be done from home to continue that for the twelve weeks, and kids whose parents out at work in school, and still keeping the vulnerable and the shielded precautions in place, with social distancing rules also in place.

So likely in about a month we will see slow lifting of restrictions for many elements of society, with social distancing rules in place and the vulnerable etc still protected.

The Italian numbers over the next week will be very informative

They think it’s China’s trajectory we are following, not Italy, but in reality we likely have one all of our own.

There has to be some economic consideration, the country will be bankrupt if it goes on too long.

I think I have had it as do others I know. We urgently need a test available to all so some can start work again. Not everyone has the horrific symptoms.

I largely agree with Bluntness. 6 weeks of current restrictive measures followed by a gradual relaxation. Potentially another couple of periods of stricter measures when the curve starts to rise again.
The numbers show we aren’t following the same trajectory as Italy currently. It’s difficult to compare to other countries due to the differences in measures taken, behaviour etc.

Our NHS capacity is so low compared to the amount of the population that would need hospital care that the measures needed to restrict the peak to within capacity are almost identical to the measures needed to eradicate the virus. We are on course for our health service to be overwhelmed, unfortunately. In order to prevent this, we have to both increase capacity massively AND bring R0 down to 1 or below. If you're going to bring R0 down to 1 (no growth, steady numbers) you may as well bring it down to 0.99 (slow decline in number of cases).
What I am hoping is that the lockdown we have brings R0 down to somewhere like 0.7, meaning that we have the extra 0.3 to play around with to slightly loosen the restrictions.

We are on course for our health service to be overwhelmed, unfortunately

Actually imperial are saying we are not. They think there will be stress points, but overall nhs capacity will not be breached, they presented to the government select committee on Wednesday

There does need to be economic consideration as it’s very likely our taxes will increase to pay for this. So the longer people are paid to stay home, the higher our taxes will ultimately be and the longer they will be higher for. So longer term we will be much poorer until we have paid for it. It’s not some freebie. It’s our taxes that pay for people to be covered during this, our taxes now and in the future.

Plus if companies go bust, and unemployment rises, that also has a major cost to society. From increased benefits,through to home losses, and even mental health issues. People won’t be bailed out for an extended period,

It is a balancing act. Managing the nhs capacity and long term economic impact.