Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study

[Lycidas]

‘New epidemiological model shows vast majority of people suffer little or no illness.’

www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

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“The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.

However, she was reluctant to criticise the government for shutting down the country to suppress viral spread, because the accuracy of the Oxford model has not yet been confirmed and, even if it is correct, social distancing will reduce the number of people becoming seriously ill and relieve severe pressure on the NHS during the peak of the epidemic.”

A glimmer of hope. They’re gonna start with the antibody testing very soon.

What is also convincing is that among world leaders, left & right, are some very ruthless bastards

but almost every one of them has decided that the death count - in their own countries - would be unacceptable,
so they are all taking similar measures to the UK, that hammer their economies

Almost everyone except Trump wants to continue prioritising lives - and he has suddenly acquired a lot of fans posting on Mumsnet ,,,

I think that our leaders are nervous to venture a balance between liberty and loss of life.

That's exactly what was ventured in the original plan. Then the transmission and death rates turned out to be higer than hoped and it was realised that there was no way to ride out the storm in a few months.

If hundreds of thousands die and the NHS is overwhelmed then the ecconomic consequences will be at least as bad as a temporary shut down.

People naturally would love to think it's not that bad/they've had it and are immune. Young health care workers have died. Some are currently in ICU. All the people I have known with covid symptoms recently have tested negative so I don't think you can say I had a cold recently and that probably was it. I agree the with poster above less than 1 in 10 tests positive......doesn't back up this papers suggestion. I also dislike the idea that the older generation and people with underlying vunerabilities are expendable.

It's OK. I'll tell the government they don't need to carry on contacting GPs to see who is ALS-trained and have intubated patients. I expect they're just scare-mongering rather than basing on the evidence they're seeing. Shame they didn't scale testing and contact tracing when they could. I'll also tell Government they shouldn't bother suspending MoTs later this week either.

I think I have it now based on those around me and symptoms coming out of the the milder version. I wouldn’t have taken a day off work. I’m not even needing paracetamol (and I’m not a martyr about medicine). I had some digestive issues, minor. Then tickly throat with slight cough. Then the loss of taste. Work colleagues have all had similar symptoms.

I agree with lockdown by the way! Just saying I think it’s spreading fast because people are so well with it.

(In the main, with obviously very very serious and notable exceptions).

I don’t think any one has said elderly etc are expendable. People are discussing statistics. If they did say such a thing, then it should be reported and deleted.

As for people wanting hope, yes of course they do, it’s human nature. Our liberty has been taken, people want to think that the disease isn’t going to kill us all and it will all be ok. Some very respected scientists have published their findings, a flip side to the coin, discussing it is not a bad thing, a negative.

And it isn't ok to keep the elderly alive when they have zero quality of life. I said on here a couple of weeks ago that if this had got my father when he was in his last six months of life I would not have thought it was a bad thing. He had no quality of life, he wasn't going to get better. What's the point of being alive?

They are people who would die of seasonal flu or even a cold if they caught it. The vast majority of people who die from covoid 19 are NOT in this category.
They are people like me or like the Headmistress who died. People with conditions that are usually managed on an ongoing basis. We work, have families, have kids and a social life. We are unlikely to make it to our 90's, but a lot of us will reach our 80's or at least 70's with ongoing medical care and vaccinations.

This type of thread is irresponsible bullshit. This is exactly the attitude that encourages people to deviate from what is advised. There are thousands dying. I dint think we can take any chances here.

Ilove, it's OK. People never get colds or 'flu at this time of year so they can be reasonably certain they've already had it if they've had any of the wide variety of unfortunately un-specific COVID symptoms that also present with 'routine' colds or 'flu.

" I think that our leaders are nervous to venture a balance between liberty and loss of life."

It's not "liberty"; it's basically money vs lives
which is not a daft or evil question

How many lives are worth losing an estimated 15% GDP in the UK this year ?

1 life certainly isn't, even if that were the Queen or the PM
1 million lives would be worth it, imo, but others would disagree

The issues are:

• Evidence about how serious this virus is in the UK - which we should have after 3-4 weeks of lockdown and
• If it is as serious as feared, we are back to debating how many lives, vs how much cost to save them

@Bluntness100 How many people do you seriously think reading this post have any understanding of that document linked to?
Instead they read the post which is VERY misleading and think - oh it has all been hysteria as I suspected. I will go round to my mums tomorrow after all then.

That is why frankly this is a DANGEROUS post.

I am terrified by the infringements to our civil rights caused by the lock down and the effect on the economy. I also worry that it will be the children of today that have to pay for this.

However, I do wonder, after all this is over, will the government finally have to address the wider problems in our society? The longer this crisis goes on the more it will become impossible to ignore the serious problems in our society caused by sustained austerity measures (lack of housing, children living in poverty, insecure employment, under funded NHS, police and benefit system, rising living costs that don’t match earnings to name a few), in addition we will need to properly plan to deal with the challenges caused by an ageing population. As someone else said to some extent the corona virus illustrates the impact of this on the health system. There will surely be further challenges to address in the future, such as those related to the lack of accessible and suitable social care that need planning for now, not waiting until the country suddenly realises it is at crisis point.

@Zilla1 Are you serious?? Of course people get colds and flu at this time of year as well.
Dangerous bollocks

Zilla1 Are you serious?? Of course people get colds and flu at this time of year as well.

No. That was sarcasm.

All out of, I know they do. I was trying to illustrate that having had any of the unspecific COVID symptoms (any combination of which also tend to present with rhinoviruses, 'Flu and human corona viruses) and believing that you've had COVID in January so the lockdown is overblown is magical thinking. Sorry you missed the point.

Is it because they think this is going to be the worst one since 1918?

Yes.

The vast majority of people who die from covoid 19 are NOT in this category.
They are people like me or like the Headmistress who died. People with conditions that are usually managed on an ongoing basis. We work, have families, have kids and a social life. We are unlikely to make it to our 90's, but a lot of us will reach our 80's or at least 70's with ongoing medical care and vaccinations.

Well explained. Covid-19 must be really scary if you have an otherwise well-managed underlying condition and could usually expect to live for a decade or two more at least.

@Bluntness100 Please don't lie. I see no evidence this is a published document. It looks to me like a draft paper circulated to colleagues for comments. And I suspect you do not understand it.

" I think that our leaders are nervous to venture a balance between liberty and loss of life."

I could believe that if it were just the UK, or even just Western governments

but the ruthless dictators around the world have blinked just as hard as the democratic leaders

e.g. China's leader ship are not a cuddly regime; they are a brutal dictatorship whose predecessors have killed millions
But they still shut down a big chunk of their economy, to shut down the epidemic in their country before it got out of control and killed too many

And if you read back to ILove's post, I was agreeing with them when they said 'People naturally would love to think it's not that bad/they've had it and are immune.' Shame about the several previously healthy, fit, under-60s HCPs ventilated in ITUs at the moment.

@alloutoffucks

I didn’t sum anything up. I quoted directly from the Financial Times article.

Please stop infantalizing people. It’s the age of information and we can discuss whatever we like.

All this 'we'll be broke, doing our bit to help others isn't a good enough reason for me to have disposable income'.

SOME people might have to go on benefits if they are not covered by the governments EXTENSIVE financial package. My goodness, imagine living on the breadline like so many already do, best to kill some oldies they'd only die anyway and if I keep my job I could afford private healthcare when the NHS collapses.

Absolutely disgusting and selfish behaviour, not only to your neighbours but the NHS staff working tirelessly. If we all have to tighten our belts to a bare minimum so be it, people are already living in the low standards you are bloody putting before people lives!

Try take pleasure from small things like your family being alive and not in hospital. WTF is wrong with people.

• not to have disposable income. Angry typing I do apologise

Please don't lie. I see no evidence this is a published document. It looks to me like a draft paper circulated to colleagues for comments.

It's been published in the FT, that's what the OP is about. It's certainly not been peer reviewed, but in the current circumstances that won't stop important info from being acted upon.

I tend to think it shouldn't have been given to the FT yet, but should just have been circulated amongst experts and the goverenment. Still, it's not that hard to follow and I think the benefits of living somewhere we can discuss this outweigh the cost of people being thoughtless.