Economics vs public health. **MNHQ has altered title**

[Mohster]

As you will see for a long time I have been advocating that the govt was putting economics before lives and their plan was to create a herd immunity by sacrificing lives on an acceptable casualties basis. This was totally apparent if you listen to the interview given to Channel 4 where it was suggested as an answer to a question put by the presenter that many would die whilst the govt tried to create herd immunity as being inevitable.

Now Dominic Cummings chief adviser has been caught out for following this strategy and quoted by papers and the Sunday Times in particular as wanting to let the elderly die to save the economy.

You don't need to take them word for it - just look a the govt plan - contain essentially consisted of the suggestion that we should wash our hands. The delay was effectively none existant and the schools were only closed as a result of parents taking their children out of shcool and the forcase that 250000 could die. In fact the govt was rushing thorugh legistlation in the following week to force parents to take their kids to school and it was only scrapped a thte last minute by the estimates publication.

That left mitigation, mitigation of damage to the economy. The PM and govt are as a result backtracking.

The suggestion is that Dominic Cummings had said let the old die whilst we get herd immunity but now seeing what is happening in Italy and likely the fact that the virus is now killing younger people, they are quickly backtracking having failed to contain or delay because they did nothing.

As a result of their false assurances and that we just have to wash our hands the public flocked to public areas and their plans have put us in a position that will result in many more dying. The govt of other countries are now publicly criticising the govt. All of this now means at last these people who are ignorant of the risk will likely make a lock-down more likely.

I personally think that they should face criminal charges if a corporate body was to make such decisions the CEO and directors would be imprisoned.

Cant say what i think cos I'll be accused of scaremongering.

But i totally agree OP. Especially if they look at the industries left open. There still on there ridiculous herd immunity scheme.

100s on thousands will die.

Additionally How we ever rebuild our medical system after i dont know. Not one medic will trust our government or want to work in the uk

Its

To all those saying don't politicise this situation... well this situation is political as well as a tragedy. We are seeing the result of a decade of under-investment in health and social care. The Tories did not cause coronavirus... but their callousness and incompetency has absolutely contributed to the suffering of the population.

It's obvious they want to crash the economy though.

Again, I have to say on this thread don’t be so ridiculous. Of course they don’t want to crash the economy but they are between a rock and a hard place because of people like the OP.

I’m becoming increasingly pissed off with the attitudes of some older people who up until now have been refusing to listen to sense and stay home for their own protection. They’ve complained and whined about being patronised and stigmatised, well so fucking what? This isn’t all about you feel. You might have a cavalier attitude to whether you live or die but the fact is we live in a society where ambulances will be sent, and a bed of sorts will be found, and intensive care will be given when you need it, while we have it in our ever decreasing capacity to do so.

So every time you go out unnecessarily or refuse to take sensible precautions to help yourselves, not only are you contributing to putting the greatest pressure on our NHS but you are showing a huge lack of respect for the people with families to support and jobs to go to and businesses to keep afloat, and rent to pay, who are making the most enormous sacrifices to save your lives. The very people who have stitched up our younger generations in so many ways.

Let’s face it, the simple fact is that if our society was made up of under 70s we’d need to isolate a relatively small number of people who are immune compromised or have serious health conditions and the rest of us could carry on, employing basic social distancing measures, safe in the knowledge that the vast, vast majority of us who caught Covid 19 would make a full recovery at home with some paracetamol and Netflix.

As it is, many will die or be forever damaged mentally, socially, financially as a result of this period of enforced isolation and the resulting depression or recession that will follow. Jobs will be lost, marriages will end, mental health problems will skyrocket, domestic violence and alcoholism will increase, women will not be able to access birth control as easily. And that’s just as a result of the lockdown. I don’t even want to think about what happens in the next five years..

So please, if you are over 70 and feeling hard done by, just shut up moaning and stay indoors. If you had listened the first time it might not have needed to come to this.

The term "herd immunity" is so strongly associated with vaccination programmes, which are mostly seen as a public duty.

I thought invoking "herd immunity" in the context of Covid-19 made it seem like it was a public duty to catch it and "take it on the chin", and as if social distancing was merely short-sighted personal cowardice.

It’s not just the elderly either. My son rents a room from a friend who owns a flat. The other day he said to him ‘I think you should stop going into London by tube every day because you are putting my mum and my friend’s kid at risk.’

His mum has MS and his friend’s child has a heart problem. Both of them visit the flat regularly and have been doing so before actual lockdown was implemented.

Right, so my son who has bills to pay and car finance to keep up and a job he’s worked really hard to get and do well in (and will almost certainly lose if he just decides to stop going) has to risk getting into debt and being unemployed, to protect people who want to carry on their lives as normal, putting the onus on everyone else to make sure they are safe? Seriously?

He has agreed to go off sick for two weeks at the SSP rate which he can ill afford to do, because he’s worried his friend will kick him out if he doesn’t comply. He’s already taken a week of his own holiday entitlement. After this two weeks if he chooses not to go back I guess he’s facing unemployment.

We are hearing a great deal about how fit and young and healthy people should be taking measures to protect the elderly and the vulnerable but I think we need to be thinking a bit more about what part they should be playing in helping us to help them.

I heard only last week of a couple I know in their late seventies, one of whom has cancer and a very bad heart, determined they’d still go to the pub quiz night because they were bored. This was before the pubs were closed, but they are the bloody reason everything is now closed.

To be fair, all my elderly/vulnerable family and friends are isolating themselves. They're certainly not visiting other people and then expecting other people to avoid work to accommodate their visits.

We need facial recognition so those flouting the 2m rules and going out unnecessarily go to the back of the queue if they need hospital treatment regardless of age. If this was public policy I'm sure it would result in changed behaviour.

So please, if you are over 70 and feeling hard done by, just shut up moaning and stay indoors. If you had listened the first time it might not have needed to come to this.

Your rant is offensive. It wasn't the over 70s still ramming the pubs and bars, flocking to beauty spots and complaining their children are bored and still going to work in non essential roles.

Are you missing the Brexit wooha OP?

Maria, it's not just the elderly and those with health problems who are getting unwell and dying from this. WAKE UP!

This has been viewed as ill-advised by many experts BillGates (Microsoft)

Never realised the man was also a virologist and/or epidemiologist! God, what a talented man.

Not sure the school argument can be used. Singapore has the flattest curve I have seen and their schools are open and all kids at school. Temps taken on arrival and departure I believe.

I have a slightly different view. Having worked in health care for 30+ years it has never ceased to amaze me how the general public fail to listen to sensible, scientific and well reasoned advice. They always have a reason why it doesn’t apply to them, are distrustful of the bleeding obvious etc.
The fact that they brought in behaviourists as well as scientists suggests that they knew that with each measure introduced they would meet massive public objection. I think they have very cleverly allowed the public to panic themselves into lockdown.
Anyone watching the Italian situation unfold can see how laid back they were about the virus. No country wants this.
The whole global situation is unprecedented. Claiming that it is some ingenious plot to downsize the population is ridiculous. Unfortunately in medicine you have to have the ability to dehumanise your clinical decisions. I suspect that it is the same in politics. Being able to see the whole picture is beyond the average persons capabilities so they focus on the area that they can understand most.

OP we can’t keep this lockdown indefinitely or it will kill more people than the virus ever could.

My 80 year old dad who has been very active is now living alone with no visitors because of the virus. He can no longer do his usual daily exercise (golf) and social visits. If there is 3 months of this, it will lead to a huge deterioration in otherwise healthy over 70s. If someone over 60 does 2 weeks of inactivity they suffer a substantial loss of muscle which at that age is very hard to recover from.

So not only is this lockdown killing the economy but it will in the long-term kill more elderly than the bloody virus. The deaths won’t be as dramatic but the lockdown will still shorten many people’s lives.

What do we think is going to happen when placed like Wuhan relax restrictions? They aren't going to sustain them for up to 18 months surely until a vaccine is likely to be around? I'm not saying our approach was correct (although any other government would have recieved the same scientific advice, Boris hasn't just decided this himself and been allowed to run with it). Following Spanish Flu which seems to be the closest, the second wave is always the worst, and that is probably what will happen following lockdown, unless most people do get it but you try and control how many when. The truth is no one knows what is best, it's not going to go away (although one hope is that the most it is passed on the 'weaker' it becomes as is true with some others). Due to the nature of it was always going to be loss of life in high numbers, whatever any country did. We will see.

We also don't have the means for a total lockdown, in China you have to swipe in and out of home etc, that level of data capture and obedience isn't the same as here culturally. And as a PP has said, far more will lose their lives through isolation for prolonged periods, and probably austerity. The response to build more ventilators, develop and manufacture antibody kits in a short timeframe and set up a new hospital in anticipation is actually impressive.

It is so obvious that the government measures are not working. Sportsdirect is one example, but there are so many other employers making their employees go into work. The government can see this but have done very little. The latest lockdown is LINO. Which makes you question their motives.

I hope they’re right, and they’ve done enough to prevent thousands of deaths, but I am doubtful.

The shocking thing about this was the delay in ordering PPE and ventilators. We knew this was coming and did nothing for weeks. London hospitals are already struggljng. And because of the pathetic lockdown measures, lots of Londoners with second homes have now caused more spread of the disease (not just Londoners but this is a big part, like Lombardy in Italy).

The government have the best scapegoat - the people - they asked the people to be sensible and the people did not comply. We should be blaming government for their pathetic measures, but we are blaming each other. The government needs to do more now.

Is that you Jeremy?

Detroit It’s not only them but it is LARGELY them. We KNOW this. There will always be exceptions and unexpected outliers but the vast, vast majority of people who are dying are falling into the category of being very elderly, or over 70 with existing co-morbitities, closely followed. Y the over 60s with co-morbidities. Among the under 60s dying, very few indeed died purely from coronavirus. Underlying health issues (previously detected/diagnosed or otherwise) have been a huge factor.

I know it’s not just the people who are classed as vulnerable who have been flouting the social distancing rules, but they are the ones who are most likely to end up in hospital if they catch it. They are the ones this is all for. Everyone else might be able to take their chances to save the country from going under for the next ten years and to save the suicide rate from rocketing. With some sensible precautions in place and enough public transport laid on for those who can’t work from home to be able to social distance properly. (Thanks Siddiq, you useless man.)

I do have some sympathy with healthy people who think ‘if I’m forced to carry on going into work or risk my job, home and finances going belly up I don’t see what difference it makes if I go to the pub or to play footy in the park, or go for a walk around a national beauty spot. With correct socIal distancing this should have been possible.

It people flouting the guidelines have to look at the situation for themselves and their own families first before they worry about what others are doing or not doing. If they know they, or someone in the same household is at risk it should be up to them to isolate themselves properly, first and foremost and it seems that many (up until now) just haven’t been prepared to do that.

I certainly my

Know a few retired people who just didn’t see why they should have to do that while other people were still going out, on account of living in areas that were well away from London and other hotspots.

Sorry obviously football wouldn’t be possible with social distancing, but going out and about in public spaces especially outdoors would have.

Its not a flu virus, so its pure speculation whether there will be a 2nd wave.

But yes, i think there is a power struggle in Westminster on Herd Immunity, the measures and lack of enforcement are ineffective, look at the list of essential workers... construction workers, hardware and bicycle shops allowed to stay open, no real distancing measures at supermarkets.
A friend of mine went to a Morrision's store for a IT fault..... staff kept coming up to and staying close, staff no hand cleanser at entrance to warehousing, staff handing all your goods without PPE, his company also give him no PPE, store v busy, M5 was less busy but still a heck of a lot of private cars, esp south bound.

So, imho the direction of travel is herd immunity but the govt is being smart, they are shifting the blame onto the public for the increased deaths.

@Snowy111 the issue with PPE is that it is partly manufactured in China, who surprisingly aren't exporting, and also the entire world wants some. America has crippling shortages, much worse than ours (although it isnt a competition). Things have been sent from the flu stockpile, and that is thankfully ramping up now, the issue with poor inventory and no centralised procurement system is identifying who needs what, where and how many. This looks like it's being sorted, and trucks full have been delivered by the army now. Going forward it will take more imagination which they will be working on, in case shortage of materials, production ceasing and global demand continues. Not saying it is right obviously, but it's not as simple as just buy some more. Same with ventilators, plans for how to approach suppliers with potential capabilities would have been on the off months ago to be at the stage they are at now of being off the production line in a few weeks. A few months sounds like a long time to prepare, but for stuff like this it isn't, and just because you don't see everything in the background does not mean it wasn't happening.

It is our fault, people are selfish and stupid, more things will close over the coming days, because of what we are like as a country everything has been done in stages, and then wait until people demand it and are less likely to be screaming about loss of liberties or some tripe.

@jasjas1973 it hasn't been eradicated in these places though, logic for anything infectious says there will be a second wave, we just don't know to what extent, and whether it won't be as bad in particular areas such as Wuhan as a lot have already had it.

Individuals on the ground are what is saving the UK.
Medical teams, Supermarket workers, inventors of ventilators.
Boris has shown zero leadership, and the selfish population, not thinking about the greater good; are spreading the virus.

Thé US is just a ticking time bomb.
New York deaths alone will start to outstrip Italy within a few weeks.
Thé US will take its turn as the epicentre of the virus.

If we have underinvested in the U.K., the shameful insurance based system in the US will cause 100,000 s to die.

Agree, the government has handled this so shamefully and incompetently when there was absolutely no need to - the instructions from the WHO on how to handle this to minimise deaths were clear. They are not too stupid to understand the issues and concepts around covid-19 (I’m no expert but I was easily able to grasp the likely outcomes of different courses of action based on figures related to spread, mortality and ICU resources). What can you do other than look very carefully at their motives here? They’re not idiots, they knew the herd immunity ‘plan’ would result in deaths. Every other country in Europe was able to grasp this.

I agree OP. While we were on here in January scared shitless, the Govt. were sleepwalking into this, preoccupied with Brexit.

They didn't even plan for ventilators, despite having 'planned'for such pandemics.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/health/2020/03/government-documents-show-no-planning-ventilators-event-pandemic