Lockdown is not the answer

[NellyGrace]

We have a vulnerable family member and have been isolating for 9 days. This is unsustainable. It will drive us mad.

Whilst it was just the vulnerable we could cope as we could still go out to walk. We have no garden.

If the crazy want to carry on mixing. Let them. The vulnerable can hide if they choose.

Test like South Korea and isolate the pockets of disease.

We should not be allowing governments to use this as a way to take away our freedom.

Lockdown will allow the NHS to more effectively treat those with the virus at a less stressful pace. We may not stop the virus for a while but slowing down the infection rate will give countries more time to put care in place, get ppe for staff and more ventilators. Having thousands of people sick from coronavirus will take staff and resources from already overwhelmed gp’s and hospitals.
We need a breathing space and this is the only way to get it.

It does buy some time. I was really in favour of it a few weeks ago. There is a balance in lives lost. For instance a colleague just found a lump in her breast. Her GP is closed. Small example. Large example: total financial meltdown causes millions of deaths. This virus isn't going anywhere. Right now thank god kids get it without complications. How long do you think it would take to find develop and mass produce a vaccine for billions? How long can you live in lockdown? Years? A year? Six months? How much food do you have? How much money do you have? When is the winter? Is it better or worse to have the next peak next winter? How many more cases are there ready to appear over the next month alone? How long can we all self isolate our own borders? How long til people become resigned to it spreading? (Am interested in that answer: let's see ...)

People can still buy food in lockdown. The health system can treat illness besides coronavirus if the rate of transmission is slowed enough so people won’t need to be collateral damage. It is horrifying to come to terms with how long this will last and the economic damage. Whatever happens, there is death and suffering to come from both the virus itself and the repercussions of how we deal with it. But if we lockdown, we have a better chance of reducing the death and suffering. We can’t avoid it altogether. But we can save lives. It’s ridiculous to say there is no point in lockdown because the OP has had enough of it after nine days.

And if we let it spread unchecked it’s more likely to mutate which could make it more dangerous to more people. We have to slow it down!

We are all kidding ourselves if we think there is anything we can do to control or stop this.

Mother Nature must be laughing at us now.

Ok what will the next step be? Lockdown (always been the next step) followed by stopping lockdown followed by new cases followed by apathy amongst the economic devastation followed by acceptance and apathy to deaths of the elderly.

What could happen differently? People I think need to reach that point of acceptance and people are slow. Like people are slow to see what is happening and slow to react. So it's more about just looking out for yourself and family. My personal opinion now? I was very against this earlier but now I am ready for my family to get early immunity, take our chances, see how we do. Wait til later and the nhs will be more overwhelmed not less. I am gambling that a later version might be deadly to the young as well, whereas now it isn't. I have cashed in all my money for the forthcoming financial meltdown and we'll just have to see who is left standing.

@IkeaSlave

Britain lived under a form of lockdown for 6 years - 1939-45.
Rationing continued after the war for another 9 years, until 1954.

People have been asked to voluntarily keep their distance from others, not to go to the countryside or coast or to second homes, not to socialise and not to panic-buy. Significant numbers have decided to ignore these requests.

Having missed the ideal time to lockdown by about 2-3 weeks, and seeing the lack of voluntary co-operation from the public, I predict that the government will have no option other than to declare a State of Emergency by Easter, with food rationing, emergency food supplies for the vulnerable and housebound, curfews and restrictions on movement - just as has already happened in other countries.

Do you predict a different course of action?

I feel very similar Ikea. You’ve worded it better than I did. Thank you.

I think the government advisers have seen this from the start. That’s why they tried to go with herd immunity. That was said to be inhumane so they changed tactics.

Now they’re trying to please the crowd knowing that lockdown’s a waste of time. It’s worth it to slow things down maybe but that is all. This virus will go on and on.

Slowing it down is a valuable goal in itself. A vaccine will come.

The vaccine won't be made for another 18 months and that's if we're lucky.

Are you happy to be locked down until then? Even with intermittent lockdown ... ?

Yes.

And the alternative to not being locked down is...?

Yes, NellyGrace because if I don’t my husband and my son may die.

The goal now is to stop the health service from collapsing. So we stay at home. Of the health service is destroyed by an uncontrollable surge in virus cases, millions of people across every demographic die as a result. So we slow it down and wait for a vaccine. It won’t be enjoyable. There will be a terrible recession. Lots of people will die. It’s still better than not locking down and letting the virus go unchecked.

If Italy's exponential growth rate is 4 days and ours is 3 days then our death rate is going to be considerably worse than Italy's if all the other conditions remain the same. We need to change the conditions. We need to change them more dramatically than Italy did just to avoid having the SAME outcome. We are headed to a worse outcome and we are taking less steps to change the conditions. So we are not "flattening the curve" we are fuelling the virus to continue to grow which would mean approximately one quarter of a million deaths in the next month. That is completely unacceptable and anybody who does not think we should be doing as much as we can as quickly as we can just does not understand the risk this virus poses. It's "just" 244 deaths. 244 is just a number it does not predict anything unless you also try to do the maths. Mine might be off (I hope so!) hopefully we can "flatten the curve" A week ago I was feeling more optimistic but seeing the complete disregard of any social distancing being done by the majority this weekend I think we have fucked ourselves over big time.

Are you happy to be locked down until then?

I'm not happy about doing lots of things that are good for my health, but I'm an adult and I get on with doing it. Its a modern myth that we have the right to be happy all of the time; not every morsel of food we put into our mouths has to be a taste sensation, not all medicine has to taste of rainbows and sunshine.

If your happiness is paid for by vulnerable people, what does that say about you?

I’ve just seen the news and the amount of people out and about doing none essential shopping and days out.

People should be ashamed of themselves and they’ll be first to bleat they government didn’t do enough’

That woman who said ‘we are allowed to exercise’ hadn’t comprehended that meant on your own and not with a whole group of people suing the same equipment in the park, or the group of Sunday footballers who think it’s ok because they have gloves on.

This is why the government WILL enforce a lockdown.

They need to stop taking others freedom away by their selfish behaviour.

I'm not happy about doing lots of things that are good for my health, but I'm an adult and I get on with doing it.

Is it good for your health to be locked in for weeks on end with no sun or fresh air. No exercise. Is this good for children's health.

Many people live in tiny packed spaces with no garden. What will this do to them physically or mentally. We have isolated for two weeks to protect one of the children. But we've been able to go out and walk. That is looking after our health. Lockdown will not be good for anyone's health.

Lockdown will not be good for anyone's health. dying's not great for your health either or the health of those you infect.

We will need to do what is necessary. People in Wuhan have been in lockdown in apartments since January. What do you suggest they do?

I really don’t understand why you keep harping on about lockdown not being good for health. We are all aware of that. It will probably need to happen as people seem incapable of following sensible instructions and are going out to the zoo ..etc.

Fundamentally - I don't believe that lockdown will sort out the problem of this virus. It won't make the virus go away. Those who are likely to die from it will die - but at some other point.

I don't want any of us to go through the pain of lockdown for no reason.

''They will never take our freedom'' is the hill you have chosen to die on.
How many other people are you going to take down with you?

So you don’t believe what is happening countries that did lockdown, Hong Kong, for example?

If you combine lockdown with mass testing and tracing (Spain is trying to start this now...very late to the game) then there doesn't have to be second wave once restrictions are lifted.