It was a perfect storm.

The first hotspot was a small town
Patient 0 took a while to trace (German)
Patient 1 was a superspreader
First area hit (and still the worst hit) the industrialised and busy north west.
Italy borders 5 other countries
Proximity of the hotspots to tourist areas in full ski season

That is the first wave explanation.

But fundamentally, because even once Codogno (hotspot 1) had been sealed off, nobody really took it seriously. Until it was too late.

On the 7th March, there was a press leak that the whole of Lombardia would go into lockdown on the Sunday (8th March) which it did. So the overnight trains, buses, planes, motorways were rammed with people getting out. In the south, in Puglia alone 40% of those now in ICU (and look at the timeline- less than two weeks ago there was the exodus) are confirmed as having relatives who came down that night from Lombardia. (iirc it was something like 200,000 people left the area immediately before, or after lockdown) It was this exodus which led directly to the whole country going into lockdown 2 days later.

That's wave 2 which is still spreading, especially in the south.

But fundamentally- why? Because people didn't believe it would happen to them and didn't take it seriously.

It's partly to do with a number of factors which have to do with Italian culture.

• the social kissing that Italians do (even men do this with each other and people who dislike each other do it)

• Italy has the biggest ageing population in Europe

• Italians aren't happy unless they are socialising in my experience. Any excuse for a party

• some of them still aren't taking it seriously. Just like here some idiots are still gong to the gym. I spoke to my ex boyfriend in northern Italy the other day - he can't see what all the fuss is about and is annoyed about the lockdown.

So the lesson from Italy is stay put. It’s more dangerous to try and outrun it.

Yes people in Lombardy rushed to their holiday homes in Sicily and Corsica, spreading it further.

Also it now seems that a lot of people spread it without having symptoms which is why everyone has to isolate themselves, not just the vulnerable.

From I'm what I can gather it's common for Italians to have a home in the city and a holiday home for when it's too hot to be in the cities.

Once the information on lockdown came, it was fairly easy for a huge amount of people to jump in a car and change location.

I don't think this is as common in the uk I might be wrong but I'm hoping not as we don't want the same to happen here.

I imagine it’s for this exact reason that Boris doesn’t want to lockdown, it will be a last resort. Whether that be a London lockdown or countrywide it will cause of mad rush of people moving around the country during the notice period and then you’ve lost what little control you do have of the situation. Mass movement of people during a pandemic is a disaster.

@Moomin8

Myself and DH where chatting about this yesterday and thought the same. The more touchy feely culture and contact must have played a role in spreading.

DH also pointed out they have population which is known to live longer. This could be why the figures are so high but I keep reading things online that it’s not just the older 65 + it’s also younger people dying.

But where they relatively fit and healthy or had underlying conditions? It seems we won’t know the facts for a long time which doesn’t really help us at the moment.

I am sure I read the youngest so far in the Uk was 59. It’s heartbreaking that so many lives have been lost the only possible positive I can think to come out of any of this is that we start to care more for each other and rather than thinking we’re so different to other cultures and countries we realise we’re all the same with the same basic needs 😥

I read an interesting article about the link between the fashion/fabric trade in Northern Italy/Milan and manufacturing of garments in China. There are direct flights to Wuhan and many Chinese people have settled in Northern Italy. Wuhan is a manufacturing centre for garments.

An Italian friend thinks it could be a possibility. She thinks there could be a link.

Patient zero was German not Chinese.

Not many families all live together these days.

Italians ARE well known for being almost obsessively fastidious about cleaning and hygiene.

Oops. That last one won't fit the outdated stereotypes. Dang it.

Italians ARE well known for being almost obsessively fastidious about cleaning and hygiene.

Yes, I agree with the above. Both personal hygiene and how they keep their houses.

The higher number of deaths could be in part because so many Italians are heavy smokers.

Once the information on lockdown came, it was fairly easy for a huge amount of people to jump in a car and change location

I don't think this is as common in the uk I might be wrong but I'm hoping not as we don't want the same to happen here.

I think Londoners are more likely to have family outside of London that they would head to. I can understand being scared and wanting to get away but from a National perspective it would be bad.

Oh dear, I wasn't necessarily trying to say that it was due to a Chinese person. Absolutely not. It was just interesting that there might be a potential link to Wuhan.

Another Italian friend thinks that so many Italians heading to their holiday homes has been a big contributing factor. For that reason I don't think London should be locked down as people may try to leave and spread the infection to other areas. It would be better for me personally (I'm in London) but I don't think better for us all.

I think it was also to do with the fact that Italian families are VERY close. It's not unusual for professionals to live in the city during the week then go back to their families at the weekend, where their parents and grandparents could be living all under the same roof. (I know a girl who dumped her Italian boyfriend because she came way down at the bottom of the list after activities involving seeing his mum).

Add the fact that Italy has the second largest population of old people in the world after Japan, and a lot less discipline regarding lockdown, that's why they have had more deaths than China, even though they only have a third of China's (declared) infection rate.

Kissing...

i'm really surprised its not taken a hold in places like Bangladesh and India.

Me too @sapphiresalute.

I haven’t really been checking global figures recently (I’m trying to limit myself to save my sanity!) but I did think how odd it was. I figured Russia and the Ukraine were low because it’s so bloody cold and they were more likely to stay at home.

@SapphireSalute yet it is probably hidden at the moment & it will take a couple of weeks before numbers become overwhelming - but both countries (& many others in that region like Pakistan - which has issues on the borders to the west) have families who are in the west & visit or who they visit plus trade & the Chinese have trade & military connections. Sadly, it will happen & it will be bad

People volunteering there from the Chinese Red Cross say even now, even with all the restrictions and the deaths, people are still finding ways to break the rules. Same in France.

“ i'm really surprised its not taken a hold in places like Bangladesh and India.”

That could be climate related but also in India they took strict measures after the first case.

Wasn’t it to do with Milan fashion week 18-24 Feb

People flying in before then to organise shows / garments etc from across world

i'm really surprised its not taken a hold in places like Bangladesh and India.

India has a nationwide curfew on Sunday for 18 hours.

The thing in India and Bangladesh is that ritual washing (Not just hands but often the whole body) is a part of Hinduism and Islam. This combined with an overall younger population than western countries may result in fewer deaths. However, and this is important, people in this region get age related conditions much younger than the west. So it’s very possible that when the disease really gets holds it will be the 30-70 age group most affectedz

There is a Telegraph article on this topic. It cites high rates of smoking, Italy has the second oldest population in the world apparently and also mentions pollution in Lombardy. It also says that the 8 percent death rate is based on attributing deaths to the Corona virus when there are comorbidities. But surely if people with pre existing conditions are more vulnerable, there will often be comorbidities?

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/

Another issue is smoking (decreased lung capacity) and age of the population (eldest in Europe). Also the fact that a lot of people live in apartments/blocks of flats, particularly in the North. A number live as larger families. It's a different social structure to what you see in the UK. This doesn't mean that the UK is safer as we have other issues of our own, including poorer healthcare, smaller number of ICU beds, obesity crisis, multiple other factors that are unhelpful.

23% of Italians smoke.
16% of Brits.

Yes, fashion week came during the first wave, but tbh, by then many of the designers did closed door catwalks and some didn't come at all.

I think, and it's natural to do so, people often try to find a reason for what happens which is nothing to do with them. The reality is more prosaic. It happened so quickly and so badly because it wasn't taken seriously enough, quickly enough. Both on an institutional level (though by God I'm glad I'm under the jurisdiction of the Italian govt now and not the Talking Potato) and on a personal level.