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Covid

Italy: how did it spread?

73 replies

Miljea · 20/03/2020 09:00

I've read a few conflicting accounts about how CV gripped all of Italy so badly, but what is the truth?

People fleeing from virus hit towns and cities just before the lock down? Thus spreading CV far and wide?

Refusals to self-isolate or inability to do so?

What do you think?

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ilovemydogandMrObama · 20/03/2020 11:06

May be wrong, but they aren't in proper lockdown as opposed to Wuhan.

Friends in Northern Italy say they still go to work every day, and am fairly sure it isn't just people with essential jobs.

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TheCanterburyWhales · 20/03/2020 11:10

It's more or less essential jobs, but there's no official list. My dp isn't working, schools are all closed completely.

However, you are not allowed out unless you have one of four documented reasons. Going for a walk isn't one of them for example. One person is allowed out of each household to do essential shopping. Only food shops and pharmacies are allowed to open. All bars etc are closed.

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YouAreTheEggManIAmTheWalrus · 20/03/2020 11:14

They’re an incredibly social bunch and family is no,1. Its not like the Uk where everyone is scattered around, everyone from babies to late teens will be in and out of grandparents houses, traditional Sunday family meals every week, all the oldies go to church very regularly too.

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GrumpyHoonMain · 20/03/2020 11:18

I agree that in many ways Italian / Japanese / Chinese society is the gold standard - it is why they have a high life expectancy and lower rates of dementia than other countries. Just because this social construct makes pandemics more likely and in the unlikely event we do have fewer deaths it doesn’t mean our society is better. The one good thing that may come out from this crisis In the UK is that people may make more effort to not only communicate with their elderly relatives, but also take the time to show them how to use technology to be more social.

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NoMorePoliticsPlease · 20/03/2020 11:24

I think we need to be careful about making assumptions and racial stereotypes. It is understandable , We always want to find a reason why we will not be affected and therefore look for a reason that we do not have, eg he smoked.
Italy was caught out initially because less was known about this virus. Yes there is higher polution in the north and so more lung illness, and a lot of older people. Manyy northern workers are actually southerners so who could blame them wanting to flee to the country and fresh air? Londoners are dashing to holiday homes in Wales and Cornwall, Parisians to the country so lets stop the blame game. It was still the flu season and many of the early cases were treated as flu and or pneumonia. The only difference for the uk is that we can see it coming and may have a little time to prepare. I understand lockdown cause panic, but not locking down is not getting Londoners off the streests and out of restaurants. Appealling to peoples sense is a risky business. Italy has more intensive care beds per capita than we have and a good health system and they are buckling. They stopped flights from China early but people came in by circuitous routes. We are heading for a very similar picture in a few weeks. I just wish London would volontarily lock down

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sassbott · 20/03/2020 11:32

The @TheCanterburyWhales has given the explanation that nails the why.

The reason this government hasn’t bought in a strict lockdown in London and also why they didn’t close schools until they really felt they had to, is because they knew that this would lead to a mass exodus from London. Which would be disastrous and give similar conditions to what happened in both Spain and Italy.

They have tried to keep people in the regions they are. I have had numerous friends leave London for the coast/ country and I think it’s deeply selfish behaviour. Some of these friends work with children / city of London and so are more likely to have caught this and not know they’re carrying the virus. They then go to the country and are mixing / living with the locals without a second thought.

It’s like they don’t understand the science. London is the hotspot. I should leave London and go to where it isn’t. No ability to think. I may actually have this and therefore have a moral / social responsibility to stay put and not put other areas in the UK at risk.

It allows emergency resources to focus on London, and the rest of the UK stays (relatively) safe.

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NoMorePoliticsPlease · 20/03/2020 11:34

Todays news 16 oout of 29 new fatalities are in London. Yesterdays fresh fatalities put the accelleration in deaths in the UK higher than that of Italy

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sassbott · 20/03/2020 11:36

And I would say that most of London are on voluntarily lockdown. I got the email from the mayor this morning on behalf of TfL. The amount of travellers has dropped dramatically on all transport services across London. Some routes as much as 80-90%. Everyone in central London is reporting that the streets are ghost towns.

There will always be the anomalies but even my gym (a big chain) will be closing shortly and is allowing free freezing of memberships? Why? The manager of my club said yesterday that members in my local club were down to single digits. Normally they will easily get hundreds through the doors.

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NoMorePoliticsPlease · 20/03/2020 11:37

@sassbott
Well done you, you are absolutely right, moral and responsible. Sadly most people will think only of themselves and their own. Understandable.
Thank you for your courage

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Miljea · 20/03/2020 11:39

Maybe you should have to show a local council tax bill to be able to access local resources? To discourage people fleeing hotspots? 🤔

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tegucigalpa13 · 20/03/2020 11:40

@TheCanterburyWhales

Can you quote your source for patient zero in the Italian outbreak being a German?

Not doubting you but I have seen various reports saying it was a farmer, a Pakistani who worked in a Chinese restaurant,
a Chinese textile worker recently returned from Wuhan or that they have no idea.

Would be interested if you post a link. Thanks.

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sassbott · 20/03/2020 11:43

Well they can think about their own. But if they have it the virus is going with them. And where is ramping up their ability to deal with an influx of infected people? It’s not coastal towns. It’s London. So stay put. Implement social distancing. Because the scaled up infrastructures are in London. Not a sleepy hamlet in Oxford.

It’s really selfish behaviour and personally if I lived in one of those hamlets and saw people from London arriving? I’d be livid. Police should have the powers to tell them to pack up and go back to London and stay put

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NoMorePoliticsPlease · 20/03/2020 11:51

Can I make a plea here, which relates to my username? I got terribly fed up this last two years about the brexit mudslinging and political abuse. We are really and truly entering a war like politics where it is essential to all pull together and put our political differences right away. Our politicians have a monumental job on their hands, the responsibility for decision making is a nightmare. This is not about Boris or anyof the others. We have a team doing their very best. Can we stop with the calling Boris potato head or a buffon , a liar or any other personal abuse (which in the workplace would be classed as bullying) Do not make personal insults. Get behind our govt, do what we are asked and more, dont wait until we are compelled. Focus on our communities and neighbours and look aot for those who are in trouble. I know many people are doing this, very many are not, through denial or stupidity

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UnrulySalvia · 20/03/2020 11:56

Idk about the spread exactly but I read recently that the mortality rate may be linked to the fact that in Italian families it is very common for the elderly to live with their extended family, rather than living on their own (and often being quite isolated) as they frequently do here, so more likely to catch it from family members who have been out and about at work etc.

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UnrulySalvia · 20/03/2020 11:59

Haha to poor Johnson being "bullied".

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Zxyzoey31 · 20/03/2020 12:00

I have to go into central London for work and it is pretty quiet. My commuter town however has been bustling for a few days!!! I think we are the second highest region for cases after London too.

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TheCanterburyWhales · 20/03/2020 12:01

www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cronaca/coronavirus-galli-paziente-0-arrivato-dalla-germania-il-25-26-gennaio_15995099-202002a.shtml

There you go, from the medical director of one of the main hospitals in Milan. It's in Italian, but easy enough to translate. Sorry, I thought it was common knowledge now everywhere as it is in Italy who Patient 0 was.

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Etinox · 20/03/2020 12:03

@SapphireSalute

i'm really surprised its not taken a hold in places like Bangladesh and India.

Not many over 80 year olds in those countries. Sad

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TheCanterburyWhales · 20/03/2020 12:04

Sorry NoMorePoliticsPlease.

Whilst MN lets me call a person who is putting the lives of his people at risk with the utterly crap way he's dealing with this in order to save a) his own arse b) his rich mates, I'll call him what I like. And I don't even dislike him as a person. On HIGNFY and Who do you think you are - thought he was brill. But as a politician, he fucking scares me.

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Miljea · 20/03/2020 12:11

Yep, Boris remains fair game.

I'm listening to Chris Whitty myself.

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Cornettoninja · 20/03/2020 12:25

Sorry @NoMorePoliticsPlease, I see your point but the truth is this is what Johnson wanted. He wanted to be prime minister and all that it entails. If reports are true he positively aspired to have the chance at a ‘Churchill’ moment in history.

Well now it’s here and he falls sadly short. There is very little positivity or reassurance in his leadership at a time when a lot of people, even those who don’t support the tories, would be more than willing to get behind him. We’re ultimately helpless without the backing of a strong government leadership and distribution of resources and organisation.

It goes with the territory and personally I would much rather people focused their anger, terror and frustration at a politician than each other.

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PeterWeg · 20/03/2020 12:25

"Myself and DH where chatting about this yesterday and thought the same. The more touchy feely culture and contact must have played a role in spreading."

Its extremely contagious, you can be in the same room or bus as someone and catch it. Plus it lives up to nine days on surfaces. Kissing is not required.

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dreamingbohemian · 20/03/2020 12:48

The differences across countries are really interesting and show how much we still don't know about the virus. Japan, for example, has not brought in very draconian restrictions but does not seem to be as badly affected as other countries in the region.

I live in Germany and people are starting to notice that the death rate here is far lower, even though there are a lot of cases -- as of a couple days ago, it was 2 people per 1000, while it was 71 in Italy and 28 in Spain. They don't know why.

The stats in Berlin:
688 have tested positive
43 have been hospitalised (6%)
15 in ICU (2%)

Only one person has died (a 95 year old man)

I understand you have to look at Italy and prepare for the worst case scenario, but it's also possible that between the shutdowns and the differences in local conditions, not everyone will be as badly affected.

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dreamingbohemian · 20/03/2020 12:52

I also really disagree with the idea that we should all support the government and not question anything.

This is what we did in my home country the USA after 9/11 and look where that got us. We're still fighting those wars.

The government will do a lot of things right but they can also make huge mistakes and try to exploit the crisis for their own ends.

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Moomin8 · 20/03/2020 12:53

I also really disagree with the idea that we should all support the government and not question anything.

Me too. When more people are personally affected I think they'll have a different view Hmm

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