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If London doesn’t lockdown by the weekend, it faces disaster

125 replies

Derbygerbil · 19/03/2020 21:28

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/19/uk/london-coronavirus-diary-npw/index.html

OP posts:
Didkdt · 20/03/2020 00:55

@ViciousJackdaw of course if the Drs nurses support staff carers and food suppliers, heating technicians repair people police fire and ambulance services the prison guards and the manufacturers of essential products all self isolated this would be gone and so would we

backtonormalname · 20/03/2020 00:56

Just heard a Dr from an ICU unit in a London hospital call into LBC radio. You should be able to hear it on catch up later (sometime after midnight on Tom Swarbrick's show). He was so distressed and says that the hospital is in hell and it's like a parallel universe coming out on the streets and seeing everyone take so little care. He says, if he lives himself, he and his staff will likely never get over this. He says people are dying and many survivors are getting permanent lung damage (which the media seems to be glossing over). He says that after you think you are better from the flu part, about a week in, that's when the really dangerous 2nd wave can hit you.
I don't understand why our media are acting like the Soviet Union, seems like usually you can't move for a camera in showing us 24 hrs in AandE, One Born ever minute etc, but no one is showing the truth that is ALREADY happening here.

Babyroobs · 20/03/2020 01:01

I suspect it is because that would cause widespread panic.

turdtimelucky · 20/03/2020 01:02

They just need to close the places to go - so bookies, cafes, restaurants, casinos, night clubs, pubs, bars, recreational centres, concerts, sports clubs etc. That's what Ireland has done (a week ago). There's nowhere for people to go. Schools also closed a week ago in Ireland. And unis. People are not on lockdown, but they can't go out at all - well they can, but they've nowhere to go. It's not being patrolled in Ireland, they've literally shut down everywhere people might conceivably want to go to apart from food shops and pharmacies I think. Hairdressers all shut. Gyms etc. Strongly reinforced that no (ZERO) meet-ups between anyone should be happening (not like the US who are limiting numbers in a house who meet. Ireland have just said - don't do it at all.
Then it's fine. You're not locked down, but you've nowhere to go - you've literally no reason to be out.

turdtimelucky · 20/03/2020 01:07

My relative (doctor) gave me a stern talking to this evening. No more going to the shops. No idea how I'll survive without going, but he was like - eh - you need to avoid people completely. He knows as well as I do that if I get it I will possibly succumb to it. It's that simple. I am scared on buses and in shops, but what can you do, when you have to go every day to try to buy basic essential stuff and you simply can't get it because of the GREEDY BASTARDS 'PREPPING' FOR LOCKDOWN.

sunshinemachine · 20/03/2020 01:08

shops need 2 close ppl arnt taking it srsly

turdtimelucky · 20/03/2020 01:17

I've also noticed on ITV that the presenters are a bit nervous that their shows may well be shut down (just a brief comment between presenters of two morning programmes - i.e. Lorraine and Holly and Phil).

Boris hinted that he might not do more in person/live broadcasts. I think that came after someone repeatedly coughing during yesterday's press conference where the commenters on FB were going crazy. I think it was the press conf with the Health profs rather than Boris.

DippyAvocado · 20/03/2020 01:30

Given that just about every job under the sun is listed on the key workers list, it looks like schools and workplaces will be operating pretty much as normal! Apparently broadcast journalist is an essential role so Holly and Phil could argue they are key workers!

LiveintheNow · 20/03/2020 01:30

I thought it was pretty clear Boris plans to get out of London himself and those conferences will be happening remotely.

FlushedZebra · 20/03/2020 02:11

I thought Boris was "locking down" in Downing St.

Delivery of beds & loo roll into No 10 today, wasn't there?

Judging by people's behaviour - still mixing, going to the pub etc - a fuckload more "scaremongreing" (Ie telling people the truth that this is a global pandemic of a highly contagious virus - and it's fucking serious) needs to happen - to make people stay home.

tallah · 20/03/2020 04:08

@Didkdt What do you mean by we are on a different trajectory? Sorry I am a bit thick. Does this mean we are not heading down the same path as them, and if so why not. Would love my mind putting to rest as Italy is freaking me the hell out. Thank you

Limpshade · 20/03/2020 04:34

How is ranting on Mumsnet "raising the alarm"? Seriously, how?

OffThePlanet · 20/03/2020 05:55

I really dislike information being withheld. It’s better to know what we are up against. I found this very informative and it explains the difference between the influenza and Coronavirus.

“Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand.

It has to do with RNA sequencing...i.e. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year. You get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses come from animals. The WHO tracks novel viruses in animals (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1, birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once one of these animal viruses mutates and starts to transfer from animals to humans...then it’s a problem. Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity. The RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it, so we can’t fight it off.

Now...sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human. For years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human. Once that happens, we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, that’s what decides how contagious, or how deadly, it’s going to be.

H1N1 was deadly, but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. Its RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

Fast forward.

Now, here comes this Coronavirus. It existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long. But one day, at an animal market in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person. But here is the scary part. In just TWO WEEKS, it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”.

This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity), took off like a rocket. And this was because humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.

And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs.

That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1, or any other type of influenza...this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater. And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain S and strain L...which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him till the Black Plague passed (honestly, I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation.

And let me end by saying...right now it’s hitting older folks harder...but this genome is so slippery, if it mutates again (and it will), who is to say what it will do next.

!!!!flattenthecurve. Stay home folks. And share this to those that just are not catching on."

Credit to Estrelita Estrella> (pathologist)

LynetteScavo · 20/03/2020 06:25

@OffThePlanet Thank you for that Smile

TheCanterburyWhales · 20/03/2020 06:34

The very simple reason Italy has been so hard hit is that it was a perfect storm:

Industrialised, highly populated area as first hot spot
Poor air quality
Close to tourist areas
Northern Italy borders 5 countries and travel between them was barely regulated 4 weeks ago
Patient 0 took weeks to find (he was German)
Patient 1 was a super spreader
Nobody initially took it seriously.

Very very few Italians live in multi-family set-ups these days. Post war years maybe, not now. What probably did contribute is that families tend to all still gather for Sunday lunch, that kind of thing. But not because they live together. Attending mass regularly will have contributed too. But again, Italy may have an older population, but the UK's is very significantly less healthy generally which will not be insignificant.

But ultimately, what caused it to explode?

Too little too late generally, and the mass exodus out of Milan on the 7/3 (night before lockdown in Lombardia) In Puglia 40% of ICU patients with Covid-19 are the parents and other older relatives of the (mainly) younger students who left ahead of the lockdown. That was given by the PM as the principle reason that 2 days later the whole country had to be locked down.

Italian ICUs 10 days ago were coping. There was no hospital emergency, everyone who needed treatment was given it. There was eye rolling about what was being said in the international press.

They haven't even got room in the crematoria now let alone the hospitals.

None of that is scaremongering. It's fact.

A lockdown to be truly effective in what it needs to do has to be unannounced and total. You can't do that to humans in a democratic society. The Italian lockdown was gradual and still a work in progress. It also varies from area to area as local authorities implement extra measures.

Of course the WHO, international scientists etc may be wrong and the UK may, as Boris appeared to claim (and then refute) in yesterday's press conference, be able to deal with it in 12 weeks.

The death toll may end up being exactly the same, much lower or much higher while the UK isn't locked down and we wait for herd immunity to kick in. But the policy makes the UK look like one massive science experiment being run by someone who is obviously listening to experts, just different ones. And they may even be right. But that's a hell of a risk to take.

TheCanterburyWhales · 20/03/2020 06:37

@OffThePlanet thank you.

Nomorewine77 · 20/03/2020 07:50

@OffThePlanet That was great, thank you

BirdandSparrow · 20/03/2020 09:30

I agree @TheCanterburyWhales, but I also think the UK has many of the same issues, and most importantly is doing too little too late.
There is no reason why the UK will be different to Spain and Italy if it continues to do fuck all. It's simple maths, once the virus is in the community, if you don't massively reduce contact then it will spread. Slowly at first and then the curve starts to increase exponentially. That's where it's headed.

jewel1968 · 20/03/2020 10:26

@OffThePlanet - have you found anything to explain why for some it is very mild or no symptoms and for others extreme symptoms.

I listened to a podcast with Dr. Amesh Adalja who is a Senior Scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. His work is focused on emerging infectious disease, pandemic preparedness, and biosecurity. He suggested there was some promising evidence of antiviral drugs being effective. One that was developed for Ebola. Fingers crossed.

Of particular worry is that he thinks if we don't do something there will be worse viruses in the future. He complains about the lack of work that has been done on developing anti viral drugs since 2003 when people like him were warning about pandemics like this.

jewel1968 · 20/03/2020 10:33

This is a lecture he did recently www.cmu.edu/tepper/news/stories/2020/february/coronavirus-lecture.html

backtonormalname · 20/03/2020 10:46

Someone has captured the radio call from an intensive care doctor and posted to youtube. I guess it might get taken down soon but please listen Londoners and take it seriously! This doctor is begging for people to stop touching each other and stay 2 meters apart.

BirdandSparrow · 20/03/2020 11:59

We have passed 1000 deaths in Spain, almost 20,000 cases. We have not hit the peak.
Stay at home. Stay at home.

Didkdt · 20/03/2020 16:23

There's no proof Dr Jack is real.
There is scare mongering and twisted people playing on people's nerves and that Dr Jack sounds like one of them

BirdandSparrow · 20/03/2020 17:20

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-they-call-it-the-apocalypse-inside-italys-hardest-hit-hospital-11960597?fbclid=IwAR1TluO9-xMQoBBiGuxxLD2AHcgZR-i7FBADHai6JSyhufkNkfB-i0uYApc

You are not different in the UK, you are not different to Italy or Spain. It is coming, it will overwhelm the NHS if you continue to do nothing. If your government won't make you, stay at home.

www.bordertelegraph.com/news/national_news/18322745.covid-19-major-london-hospital-declares-critical-incident/

BirdandSparrow · 20/03/2020 17:36

Death rate rising faster in the UK than in italy www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/19/coronavirus-deaths-rising-faster-uk-italy/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

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