Why the blind faith in the UK Government's strategy?

[alloutoffucks]

I see some posters on MN who wholeheartedly support what the UK Government is doing. But why the blind faith?

How can you look at how every other government is doing the exact opposite to the UK, that a few hundred scientists have written to the government saying they are wrong, that WHO are saying they are wrong - how can you look at all that and blindly have faith that the UK government is doing the right thing?

The virus has been contained in some countries. Lots and lots of scientists are saying it is still not too late here.

So why when everyone else is saying the UK Government is wrong, do some still have blind faith in the UK governments? Is it too scary to think our government has got it wrong? Or are you the kind of person who always thinks the UK government has got it right?

The government have said there will be substantially tougher restrictions albeit when the time is right. You only have to look on here to see how many people disagree with their approach, most don't have the choice though to do anything else as they have to pay the bills, or work in one of the sectors everyone else is assuming will magically keep running. How many people have you genuinely heard praising their approach, compared to being critical of it?

Tracing would work if there a few car s, how do you trace now?

Tracing and containing should have been done in early January. Things are different now, the horse has bolted.

A lock down is no magic weapon but if you look at the data coming from countries who did it early, it saves many lives

You cannot possibly say that. It is far too early in the cycle to know anything about efficacy of strategy. You'll have that data in about two years time, possibly 18 months, but categorically not now.

It is highly likely that countries in lockdown will experience a surge like no other once the lockdown starts to break down, which it inevitably will. And an uncontrolled surge will kill millions.

How many people have you genuinely heard praising their approach, compared to being critical of it?

None on SM. Lots on academic blogs.

Who do want making decision? Gillian from Bristol with 47 likes or Professor Sir Expert in Epidemiology?

the government themselves have actually no idea of how many cases there are in the uk at present as they are not testing enough, surely other countries saying they wish they had locked down sooner and advising the uk to do the same should be listened to?

I suspect there will be a second wave no matter how you phase the relaxation of the lockdown. If 1 person can infect 2-3 others you need very few initial cases to trigger another wave. I did a back of the envelope calculation, if 4 people who were infectious leave a lockdown and it takes 2 days (my assumption) for someone to infect 2.5 people you would back up to thousands of cases within about 2weeks.

titchy It is certainly not too early to note what has affected the marked differences in mortality rates and only a fool wouldn't try to emulate it-especially when it's clear that vaccines and, more realistically, ventilators and enhanced treatments will take a bit longer to come through so time is of the essence. I'm not sure what agenda you have but it's very clear that abandoning tracing and delaying lock down is in fact a formula for an uncontrolled surge. Please, get a hold of your reason.

Of course it's too early We don't know how the virus will spread over the next year. We don't know how long a vaccine will take. We don't know how the populace will react to months of lockdown.

Four months of lockdown in China may well work in that context. I very much doubt the same can be said for every other country in the world.

Saving 20 lives with a course of action that kills 120 in 8 months time is a shit outcome compared to saving just 5 lives now but only killing 10 in 8 months time.

No agenda here, just realism. Humans by nature want to feel in control. They want explanations and understanding. Not having that makes them nervous. And nervous people feel better doing something, even if its futile. Hence the SM storm.

The point is that no one at this point in time knows what the correct course of action is. Time will tell.

No one else appears to agree with you tit

I note you ignore the issue of time needed to develop treatment protocols and manufacture ventilators. Also the now confirmed possibility that Italy will be like the UK if we don't at least try to be like China.

Nothing more to say to you.

I agree with tit.

Tit?!!!! Excuse me! Titchy please! Don't mind nicknames or abbreviations but 'tit' - really?

I haven't ignored the issue of treatment and ventilators - it's a massive problem. Here, in Italy, China, everywhere. Still doesn't change the fact that no one knows how this virus will run its course, mutate etc over the next year.

I am 80% supportive of what the government is doing. There are things I think they could be doing differently so I wouldn't call it "blind faith". I think we need to move away from thinking there is only one right way or one wrong way.

every other government is doing the exact opposite to the UK

This isn't really true is it? The exact opposite would be to do nothing.

There are some people who I suspect will always believe a posh bloke who they think is charming must be right

And there are many people who think that BJ is a plonker but who can also see that the government are genuinely attempting to manage this as best as they can. I suspect some people are being critical purely because this is a Tory government and nothing they can do will be good enough.

At least the government's strategy is fluid and changing regularly which is the most important thing. It is unlikely that any measure will be 100% right or wrong at this point. All measures will have unintended consequences that people hadn't considered. For instance closing schools completely would have the consequence of reducing staffing levels in the NHS which would be highly undesirable at this moment in time. But perhaps they should consider partial closures which would mean they could allow vulnerable staff to self isolate and vulnerable parents to remove their children from schools. I'm sure this will probably happen in the next couple of weeks.

Anyone who went into this pandemic with a bad case of Boris Derangement Syndrome is unlikely to see a cure now.

Sorry!

I agree with titchy

Scientists would love to know what Covid 19 will be doing next year but nobody can be sure. We don’t know what will happen when the lockdowns breakdown. Even a few infected people leaving a lockdown will trigger another wave. The Spanish flu came in waves.

I am concerned that people think there is a quick fix. Lockdown for 2 months and problem solved - look at China. The simple fact is that we won’t know how effective China’s lockdown has been until it has been lifted.

The virus could resurface next winter just like flu does.

I also agree with titchy

@mement0mori Why assume anyone who disagrees with Boris's approach is anti Conservative? I have voted Conservative in the past. And I have been going round the house saying to DP that I wish Theresa May was still PM.
It really is just a lazy stereotype to see this as left wingers attacking the Conservative party.

Why assume anyone who disagrees with Boris's approach is anti Conservative?

I don't think that "anyone" who disagrees with Boris's approach is anti-conservative. Show me where I said anything of the sort?

I said "some people" in response to you saying there are some people who I suspect will always believe a posh bloke There will always be "some people" who think stupid things. But the rest of the people hopefully have more sense and can try and be a bit more nuanced in their thinking.

The government doesn't agree with itchy (who is still clinging to dangerous advice that they've not recognised was dangerous and unfounded).

now

Eh? What dangerous advice am I clinging to? I'm adhering to advice - working from home etc!

All I've ever said on any CV thread (so many threads!) is that no one knows whose country's strategies will work and no one knows what the virus will do long term.

And 'itchy' - come on, 'tit' was bad enough. My name is 6 letters - it's not difficult. Or is it a weird way of insulting me?

In 3 months, we will have more ventilators and better treatment. That means people who get the virus then have a better chance of surviving it. We'll also be 3 months closer to a vaccine and out of the winter pressure on the NHS. We'd also have avoided, or at least delayed, the catastrophic scenes of Italy. I think this, many many experts said this to counter the government's proposals last week, and now the government have drastically changed their position too based on the unacceptable death toll suggested by the modelling, if they continued to postpone serious containment measures. We don't need more information on those issues to draw a number of conclusions and it's always a good idea to heed the WHO who appear to be briefing at the British government this morning re they're cavalier attitude to children's safety.

I have no idea what the fuck you're still arguing about.

Wasn't aware I was arguing!

I agree in three months we'll hopefully have more ventilators and be able to treat more people , and hopefully the warmer weather will help. I don't think anyone has disputed that.

But you dont know how big future waves of the virus will be or when they'll come. And it's ridiculous to pretend you do. And ridiculous to make hard statements on the correct course of action without that knowledge.

(As an aside to my knowledge no Western country has ever faced the prospect of telling its population to stay indoors for 3 months plus. The effects at both individual and population level are unknown and could be very very significant. I doubt any social psychologist would want to predict that one.)

I'm just watching the latest press conference. Tbh that's it, from now on I'm making my own decisions. They haven't got a bloody clue. Same goes for management at work. And I work for the NHS. They are all clueless. From now I will do what I believe to be right.

I think you can plan for what you don't know ok the basis that you don't have that knowledge so have to work towards saving most lives in the meantime- something that Boris and Co go l finally seem to be doing. You came across as not having that position, you don't seem to now, great, let's leave it as I've better things to do-working g fro m Home from home