Why the blind faith in the UK Government's strategy?

[alloutoffucks]

I see some posters on MN who wholeheartedly support what the UK Government is doing. But why the blind faith?

How can you look at how every other government is doing the exact opposite to the UK, that a few hundred scientists have written to the government saying they are wrong, that WHO are saying they are wrong - how can you look at all that and blindly have faith that the UK government is doing the right thing?

The virus has been contained in some countries. Lots and lots of scientists are saying it is still not too late here.

So why when everyone else is saying the UK Government is wrong, do some still have blind faith in the UK governments? Is it too scary to think our government has got it wrong? Or are you the kind of person who always thinks the UK government has got it right?

Boris is actually quite good at engaging experts - in contrast to Trump who just does whatever the fuck he likes.

So no, this isn't Boris's plan, it's an experts' plan.

No Noble, its clearly not Boris' plan and thank god for that but it's a brave thing he's done, listening to the experts in the face of all this public pressure. We shall see how that pans out.

What the UK is planning is well intentioned and rational. I still think it's reckless and arrogant because they're throwing up their hands at the possibility this will totally get away from them on the basis that people wouldn't quarantine for long enough for them to do anything about that so that idea is dead in the water. That's not the case. They COULD have a mass shut down. The science saying people would never do it is not hard science exactly-it's not science like the scientists developing the vaccine do science because this is a once in a generation event and no one quite knows how social media can influence the public to react and stay engaged with quarantine. They COULD arrange reduced schooling for the children of NHS workers. They COULD facilitate most people working from home but it would be bad for business and that's what they're not saying. Of COURSE they could choose scientists to stand beside Boris who would advocate mass closures based on hard science. It's highly subjective.

What is NOT subjective is what we know so far and how countries who have been slow to shut down are faring. It's NOT subjective to say that radical measures work. It's not subjective to say our NHS needs every day it can get to delay. It's NOT subjective to say we will be much better at treating this thing by the summer so people who might die now would not die during a second wave. But these arguments are not good for business so the government isn't saying them.

If the virus was exactly the same but most virulent against narcissistic politicians and business owners it might be different. But business owners (and the government) think like the markets. They will react just enough to shave off the worst of the expense of all this, whether that is by reducing the burden on businesses be stalling closures or by cutting NHS bills by delaying A Bit. They're not actually trying to save everyone at any price, as illustrated by the waffling and back tracking about herd immunity. This is a bit more utilitarian than we realise, from men who are used to being cut throat and are being as ethical as they can within their considerable ethical limitations.

This is all madness because Italy.

And the argument against mass closures is Very Convenient

why the blind faith?

What's the alternative? Civil disobenience or whinging on SM? It is what it is - better to work with it rather than pissing in the wind. Concentrate on what we can change, not what we can't.

user149 oh have a titter of wit. You're not living in 1984. The alternative is public debate and public pressure which is what anyone living in a democracy owes themselves, the government and the nation. Not blind faith.

Those who believe the government strategy, do you still have 'faith' in it this afternoon now the health Secretary has done a backtrack and stated herd immunity is not the plan.. Every though that was the bases for every thing they've done up until now? Both experts stated this was the plan in the press conference on Thursday. Herd immunity was the whole model and basis for what they were planning to do at each stage. They have now said the plan is not based on herd immunity so how can you feel confident in them? Genuinely asking, I feel so frustrated with what is happening I'm keen to see it from the other side in the hope that I am missing something.

Despite reading every open access journal article and scientific paper I can, watching and reading all the WHO conferences and guidelines I'm still trying to work out how our government have arrived at the decision they have.

Any credible science backed arguments about why we should agree with the governments stance on this don't seem to match up with any other scientific information available from every other country dealing with this pandemic or the WHO.

I've listened to all the evidence from both sides of the argument and I think other government's have the right idea.

IMO it is better to spread the pandemic over numerous waves of infection as this bides valuable time. Valuable time in which medicines and vaccines can be worked on and so things like oxygen, ICU beds and ventilators can be made/procured.

Our approach seems to be to get lots of people infected at the same time. This could potentially be good in the long run if herd immunity works but will put massive pressure on our NHS in the short term.

Our approach would make sense if the NHS was in a much better state, but given it's not and we don't know much about the virus I think the government is gambling with lives with their high risk strategy. Especially since we don't know whether herd immunity will work and what the long term health implications for contracting the virus are.

Completely agree with you OP. It's very confusing. Aren't people wondering why the UK is apparently different from the rest of the world? They're not questioning why our experts seem to have different evidence to the WHO and all the other countries. I can only conclude that deep down they know but can't face reality. They desperately want to believe the UK is special. Sadly it's a dangerous policy and attitude.

Our approach seems to be to get lots of people infected at the same time.

It’s not. This is exactly what they’re trying to avoid. They’re trying to ‘flatten the peak’ by spreading out the infections.

Unless you plan on self isolating for the next 2 years, there's no other solution. Many many more people than we think are infected with this virus. It will become endemic. We need our kids and healthy young/middle age to build immunity. And we need to carry on to support the economy. I say this as someone with heart disease, a kid with heart disease and a sister with an immune disorder. Oh and a mum with cancer.

You're not making sense. Look what China has done. Good outcome, no? As for not delaying things until we have a vaccine or a better treatment (could be a matter of weeks) absolutely, why the heck would you.

And trust me, what will happen to the economy when this so called herd immunity (not ethical policy anyway with an illness with this mortality rate BTW) is not good for the economy. At all.

Unless you plan on self isolating for the next 2 years, there's no other solution.

This is the truly terrifying reality. Because either herd immunity works, and those infected are unable or vastly less likely to be infected, or we're colossally fucked. Because if catching it once doesn't stop you getting it again, then vaccines are no good. And given the amount put into medical research over the years, I'm pretty sure a cure for the cold and flu virus' are not forthcoming.

Which means either R0 can be reduced to less than 1, in which case Boris' plan is the right one. Or it can't, in which case it doesn't matter what plan we go with, every lock down will result in a second wave after. Which means wave after wave after wave of pandemic. If China had caught this at the outset, and cordoned off the whole of Wuhan, and then air lifted in supplies for 2 years, this might have been contained and destroyed. But they didn't, so it's out now. And you can guarantee that every lockdown will come out with at least 1 infectious person. With an R0 of 2.5, if there is no herd immunity, then we are looking at exponential growth of the disease every single time.

So either Boris' plan is the one, or we've got much bigger problems on our hands. One that lockdown won't stop anyway.

China hasn’t eradicated the virus they just paused it. The second travel restrictions are lifted it will return again.

*We can't avoid deaths clearly but my understanding is they are trying to push the virus back until we have more ventilators, infrastructure to treat the higher number of people affected.
@bizzybuzzy you don’t push the virus back my doing nothing! You push it back by extreme social distancing , closing schools and partial lockdown.

You can only compare mortality rates ny country if they were all doing the same amount of testing to find out how many people have the virus. Some are testing anyone with symptoms. The UK is only testing hospital patients. So it is impossible to say what our mortality rate is.

But it can't possibly be higher, unless you think there are scores of people dying going completely undiagnosed? If there are hundreds/thousands of people affected who are not diagnosed that's only going to improve the stats.

If you have lockdown now with relatively few cases and deaths, as soon as it's lifted the cases will rapidly escalate and swamp the nhs. If you spread the load the health service will cope better. Italy didn't go into lockdown immediately but only when cases were high.

Bottom line is it's a new virus. No one knows exactly how it will all pan out. You can only model on best practice and what you know.

If you work in science maybe you should change to maths and statistics.

You should watch this - it makes me think we should isolate sooner rather than later. I don't understand why people think we are 13/14 weeks behind italy, when we are probably a week or 2 behind (if we base "progress" on number of cases identified that is a cojunct of number of people tested and we are testing less and less). The WHO spoekesperson said "do everything"www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?fbclid=IwAR3lVSjuQSrH1R1nOymXm6rX7FauV-_vTuWijblQlHW5suqZVTPnKZPW4vY

Nobody thinks we are 13 weeks behind Italy. We are 2-4 weeks behind them.

How does a total lockdown help?The virus will still be there and we will still not be immune.
We may not have a perfect plan but other countries don't either and we have to wait 3-4 weeks to see if lockdowns work and another few weeks to see what happens when the restrictions are lifted.

Someone on a another thread, or maybe this one, said the people want to believe there is a magic wand, and they see the lockdown as one.

I think that’s right, we think oh ok, I’ll bunker down with my tinned tomato and loo roll, I’ll watch Netflix and then it will be all over.

Except it won’t be, we’re in this for a long haul, and we don’t know the quarantine will work.

We have posters on here and on social media saying “Let’s lock down for as long as it takes” and I wonder how they even think about that’s possible unless they are very wealthy.

We like our instant gratification and we found it, a lockdown and then it will be all over and we can go on our summer holiday.

We thought we can control everything and it turns out we can’t, so we panic and the panic causes as much damage as the uncertain event we fear.

I’m scared of both, of the virus and of the social media panic.

I agree @ChardonnaysPetDragon & started a similar thread. People seem to think they will go to ground & wfh for months on end but life outside their homes will continue as normal even though everyone else is doing the same. Where is the work going to come from in order to work from home for one?

Surprised at the lack of understanding here.

A lock down combined with tracing buys time. Time in which preparations can be made, treatment methods can be developed (a big one) and the curve can be flattened. It's everything. It's also not a ridiculously long time into a vaccine will be available. A lock down is no magic weapon but if you look at the data coming from countries who did it early, it saves many lives.

If you have lockdown now with relatively few cases and deaths, as soon as it's lifted the cases will rapidly escalate and swamp the nhs. If you spread the load the health service will cope better. Italy didn't go into lockdown immediately but only when cases were high.

I'm living in Asia now and from what I can, China, Hong Kong, Korea, Japan, have phased reopenings. The let office workers go back first, then civil service and government offices. When schools reopen it will be senior secondary students first with the younger children coming several weeks or months later.

The idea that the only way to do things is full lockdown, then full reopening leading to a second wave, is just not based on what any other government is actually planning right now.

The UK strategy is highly risky given that long-term immunity is not yet proven, a second wave could take out a significant portion of those infected the first time.