Why the blind faith in the UK Government's strategy?

[alloutoffucks]

I see some posters on MN who wholeheartedly support what the UK Government is doing. But why the blind faith?

How can you look at how every other government is doing the exact opposite to the UK, that a few hundred scientists have written to the government saying they are wrong, that WHO are saying they are wrong - how can you look at all that and blindly have faith that the UK government is doing the right thing?

The virus has been contained in some countries. Lots and lots of scientists are saying it is still not too late here.

So why when everyone else is saying the UK Government is wrong, do some still have blind faith in the UK governments? Is it too scary to think our government has got it wrong? Or are you the kind of person who always thinks the UK government has got it right?

Even the WHO have heavily implied we aren't being aggressive enough in our tactics.

But that’s because their approach is different. We are deliberately not being as aggressive in our tactics as them, for reasons laid out by the scientific adviser and chief medical officer.

one of these scientists was just on lbc he was quite contradictory about why he signed the letter. Didn't fill me with confidence.

The Guardian link above makes it all sound so easy;

"You should instead look to the example of South Korea, which, through a combination of intense surveillance and social distancing, appears to have gained some semblance of control over the virus."

This is what South Korea are doing;

"South Korea is also enforcing a law that grants the government wide authority to access data: CCTV footage, GPS tracking data from phones and cars, credit card transactions, immigration entry information, and other personal details of people confirmed to have an infectious disease."

"The authorities can then make some of this public, so anyone who may have been exposed can get themselves - or their friends and family members - tested."

"In addition to helping work out who to test, South Korea's data-driven systems help hospitals manage their pipeline of cases."

"People found positive are placed in self-quarantine and monitored remotely through an app or checked regularly in telephone calls until a hospital bed becomes available.When this occurs, an ambulance picks the person up and takes them to a hospital with air-sealed isolation rooms."

"People found positive are placed in self-quarantine and monitored remotely through an app or checked regularly in telephone calls until a hospital bed becomes available.When this occurs, an ambulance picks the person up and takes them to a hospital with air-sealed isolation rooms."

"This approach comes at the cost of some privacy.South Korea's system is an intrusive mandatory measure that depends on people surrendering what, for many in Europe and the US, would be a fundamental right of privacy."

Slight double posting.

That would appear to be almost unanimous support for the Governments actions on this thread.
I also support them.

U.K. death rate to date is 1.2%. How is the Government causing extra deaths? You’re six times more likely to die of the virus if you are Italian than if British.

One of the reasons for the higher death rate is because the hospitals are overwhelmed. I have seen new Italian guidance on twitter published by the college of intensive care which informs medical professionals how to make decisions of who to prioritise based on availability of resources and likelihood of survival. Catastrophe medicine basically.

It is likely that around 10-16000 people already have corona undetected and if that is true we would be looking at anywhere between 70-150+ deaths by the end of next week. Even when we lock down we will see cases and deaths rise exponentially for another 2-3 weeks after that.

It looks low now, but we are doing nothing!

I should add to explain it is 17 days from symptoms to death in fatal cases. So if 10 people died yesterday that means approx 100 people actually had corona 17 days ago, when official cases were only 15-20.

We are not doing nothing. Look at what people are doing:

massive increase in hygiene measures - ok it varies but so many of us are aware and compliant

stocking up on food to cover potential time in quarantine

checking on elderly and supplying them too

making plans for how to look after elderly, neighbours and family, if we get infected

changing working habits if possible

travelling far less

avoiding large gatherings

We are all doing what we can, I think? Not nothing. And there's far more to come from government.

To be blunt no one in the world will know whether Italy etc al's strategy of containment or ours of slow spread will work until next summer once next winter has been and gone.

Maybe the U.K. will be the only country where the virus doesn't expand uncontrollably at the end of the year. Maybe it will have mutated far too much by then for any herd immunity the U.K. built up be useless.

I think the government are waiting for everyone else to do something

Waited for other countries to lock down
Waiting for airlines to reduce or Cancel flights
Waiting for people to cancel their holidays
Waiting for individual companies to bring in quarantine measures
Waiting for clubs to stop running
Waiting for groups to set up to help others with food deliveries etc
Waiting for parents to keep kids at home
Waiting for the elderly to self isolated
Waiting for hospitals to clear out patients

Anything so they’ll say ‘it worked’
All this saves they money and a back lash

Don’t forget the government have also told anyone with a new cough and/or fever to isolate themselves for 7 days.

That’s not nothing, that’s quite a major intervention if people do it. It’s said it would reduce the peak by 20%.

Nobody is going to know what worked and where, too many different starting points, existing systems and cultures. And absolutely nobody is going to give very much credit to any expert or government involved. Damned if they do, damned if they don't.

If 16,000 people have corona already, and 20% require hospitalisation, that is 3,200 people. 800 of those will need intensive care. We have 4000 icu beds and they are 80% full. So that is 800 icu beds available.

So we are already going to 'hit' capacity. Even on lower transmission estimates we would 'hit' capacity by end of next week, in terms of those who will need beds.

Personally I think the government has a moral duty to tell those over 70 to stay at home in the next five days. They simply cannot wait because it is unpopular.

But apparently 10,000 people already have it so we should have 2000 people with it in ICUs right now and that doesn’t appear to be the case.

Not everyone who requires hospitalization requires an ICU bed, this is quite confusing as in China they hospitalized a lot of people anyway as a containment strategy rather than self-isolating them. So, ICU beds is hopefully only 5% of cases, and remember these develop two/three weeks into their contracting it. So, you don't have the peak of the ICU bed need yet but it is coming.

What makes you say it’s blind faith? People will have seen the rationale behind it and decided if they agree or not. It’s not like the current plan has no support from experts whatsoever

Can you please point me in the direction of any credible sources that show the rational behind it? I'm mean that seriously, I'm reading as much as I can but I'm yet to find any credible evidence that supports their strategy.

They've already back tracked on the herd immunity strategy. With Matt Hancock stating this morning this is now not their plan. So wherever people are seeing the rational I would definitely like to see it too.

I cannot work out where their scientific data is coming from. Nothing that is available from the WHO, other experts in counties already dealing with this, and all the open source scientific information does not suppor what little information they are giving us about the plan.

GreenTulips I agree, the government seem to be waiting for the population itself to take actions, certainly I've bought in supplies, prepared my meds, asked my kids to stay home (one wants to go in), preparing to help my parents self-isolate etc. I think the government are waiting for the population to socially distance. The problem is it's too slow! Some people are shifting now from their 'it's just flu' stance, but lots of older people are probably puzzled to see how they could self-isolate, given they need to go out to get food/supplies and unless council deliveries are arranged/pharmacies deliver, it's hard to see how millions of those who live alone will be able to just 'self-isolate'.

U.K. death rate to date is 1.2%. How is the Government causing extra deaths? You’re six times more likely to die of the virus if you are Italian than if British.

This is a perfect example of the lack of scientific understanding the government are relying on to keep us believing their strategy is the best one. I don't mean that unkindly. But pulling stats and putting them in a way that does not fit the situation is not useful at all even if you did get them from the WHO.

I work for a scientific company.

So what? Are you a scientist yourself? Are you an expert in communicable diseases, pandemics or crisis management? I guess not, otherwise you would have stated as much. Stop trying to big yourself up as though working for a "scientific company" in whatever capacity you do means you know any more than anyone else.

I don't know if the UK approach is the best or not. What I do know is that the experts in every country, ours included, will be doing the very best they can to manage a situation they have never had to deal with before. I also know that every country has different circumstances to consider, from the general health, demographics and concentrations of their populations to the nature of their healthcare systems and available resources. It would be ridiculous to expect every country to respond exactly the same way.

Our government and their experts may get it right, they may not. The truth is we will never know because no matter what happens we can't say how different the eventual outcome would have been if they'd tried different strategies. One thing is for sure though. They are not taking advantage of the virus to exercise some Machiavellian plot to wipe out the elderly and infirm. That is just the stuff of hysterical nonsense.

You say you despair of the blind faith of the general population. I despair of people like you who seem hell bent on winding everybody up and turning us all against each other. You and your ilk, with your panic mongering, conspiracy theories and determination to divide society, make an already difficult situation worse.

10% require oxygen therapy. This is usually provided in hospital. The UK say they are going to do it at home as they don't have enough hospital beds. That is why their proposed rate of hospitalisation is much lower than other countries.

You can only compare mortality rates ny country if they were all doing the same amount of testing to find out how many people have the virus. Some are testing anyone with symptoms. The UK is only testing hospital patients. So it is impossible to say what our mortality rate is.

10% require oxygen therapy.

So currently we have 1000 people requiring oxygen therapy. Are you sure?

"I work for a scientific company" 😂

A bit like saying the GP's receptionist knows how to perform surgery.

It's not "blind faith". It's rational review of facts and acceptance of a strategy. Which is more sensible than what you're doing... Looking at your posts, you're not as smart as you'd like us to believe. You're catastrophising, and trying to get people to join you in your doom and panic. Stop.

Still laughing at "I work for a scientific company"

I believe that, on balance, the UK govt strategy is the right one. I certainly do not have 'blind faith' in it.

We are not going to know for sure one way or the other for quite a while.

Either way, none of us who live through this will ever forget it.

"People are going to back their man to the bitter end"

Boris has never been my man, the very opposite. This is not at all political for me if it were it has completely changed my alligancies. I have a scientific education, am not stupid or uneducated. I've been off sick this week and I have read a lot

I don't have blind faith that the plan is right, it's far too early to know who is right but I do think, based on the information available and the fact that human nature and the public's own likely response/actions need to be factored into any plan for it to work, this gives us the best chance. At the moment. I fully expect that to change, but it's clear that so do our leaders and their advisors. That's what I like most about the approach it is flexible to the changing situation.

Anyone with two brain cells to rub together can see that this isn’t ‘Boris’s plan’.

It had a graph for a start.