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Original poster

Does anyone think Boris is right?

477 replies

Emcont · 15/03/2020 08:37

I'm not saying I do. But I'm curious to see if anyone agrees with the strategy they're going for as most of what I'm reading is against.

OP posts:
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MimiLaRue · 15/03/2020 14:23

I am lol that people are using China as a model for how we should be acting. The same China that brought us SARS and other viruses as a result of their appalling hygiene practices in their markets where wild animals are sold for food and the floor is covered in animal blood and flies (ive seen the videos). Yes- excellent idea! Lets follow the government who gave us the bloody thing in the first place and apparently didnt learn a single thing from the SARS outbreak.

eeeyoresmiles · 15/03/2020 14:23

Yes 60% will have to get it but the 1% death rate will happen to the vulnerable so let’s let 60% of the healthy people get it

No - if you let 60% of the (apparently) healthy people get it, a percentage of those (healthy, younger) people will die. A higher percentage of them will need oxygen and hospital treatment and some will need intensive care - which they will be unlikely to get because we don't have enough beds, staff or equipment even for all the younger people who will have more severe illness.

It might be a lower percentage of the population that gets severely ill or dies, than if all the people with known vulnerabilities are still out and about catching it, but it's still a lot of people.

We could reduce the number of younger, healthier people who will get severely ill if we try really hard to slow down transmission. Even without locking the whole country down we could all be doing more - but the message from the government is carry on as you are in terms of everyday behaviour apart from handwashing, and they've increased the chance of people getting it from contacts of infected people - instead of being told to stay at home for 14 days, those contacts now don't have to stay home at all. They haven't even asked people to try to do that if they can.

It's not all about a full lockdown vs. the government's plan - there are lots of things they could be doing in between but aren't. Why not? It seems really baffling. Why is it they apparently don't want as many of us who can, to circulate less and distance ourselves to reduce transmission, as fast as possible? They could get us all doing more, without going all the way to shutting schools completely and having a lockdown. It seems as if they want the virus to go very fast through the non-isolated people, but those non-isolated people aren't all going to survive either.

There are always competing schools of thought in science and there are always scientists who disagree with each other. I wish I had the confidence some people have that the view that happens to be dominant in advising the government is definitely the best one, and that its combination with political philosophies isn't pushing things too far in a 'let it burn' direction. I would have a lot more confidence if other countries seemed to agree.

CaveMum · 15/03/2020 14:27

The thing is we can’t trust many countries to be accurately reporting their infection/death rate. Do we honestly believe that North Korea does not have a single case, or that Russia has just 59? China may say that their rates are coming down but let’s be honest, the government there doesn’t exactly have a reputation for open transparency...

Pippitypong · 15/03/2020 14:28

Why would the economy collapse. Has it collapsed in every other country that is actually trying to eradicate the virus?
Rhetorical question - no it hasn't.
Please don't scaremonger.

Even minor constraints are going to impact the economy. No football = less income for cafes, burger vans, printers of programmes, merchandise (which may be out of date next year) nearby pubs etc as well as the people who actually work at the stadiums. No theatre or cinema - do you think those people ( many most likely on NMW) are going to get paid indefinitely?

The news is 100% focussed on Corona virus, the spread, the numbers, the deaths, the varying degrees countries are going to , to try to contain it. Have you looked what's happening with the financial market? Friday was the biggest loss since 1987. Once the pandemic is over or has receded in certain parts I'm sure there will be news of economic cost. Which will be huge.

KoalasandRabbit · 15/03/2020 14:30

No

eeeyoresmiles · 15/03/2020 14:32

Even in the service of everyone eventually being immune (and it's not even certain immunity will last) - there's a question to be reasonably asked about whether we want to get to that point quickly, with more deaths amongst the younger, healthier people who aren't being kept isolated, or a bit more slowly, with fewer deaths amongst those people.

Clavinova · 15/03/2020 14:34

Why would the economy collapse. Has it collapsed in every other country that is actually trying to eradicate the virus?

"Italy just locked down the world's 8th biggest economy. A deep recession looms."
edition.cnn.com/2020/03/10/business/italy-lockdown-recession/index.html

Random18 · 15/03/2020 14:39

With regards to economy we are just a few weeks into the crisis.

The economic impacts are not yet known.

They will be huge and Italy is going to pay a massive price.

We all will.

TiddleTaddleTat · 15/03/2020 14:43

It's not Boris it's the CMO and others. The strategy is far too nuanced for Boris to have had a hand in it.
I think it's a risky strategy but also a long-term one. It's designed in the knowledge that people in the U.K. are used to a great amount of individual choice.
Only time will tell if it pays off. I truly hope we get through this together and can support one another rather than fight and compete.

MarshaBradyo · 15/03/2020 14:44

Many people on here are too abstract when they think of they economy.

Pp when thinking airlines might go bust said but Dh will be unemployed. Need a bailout.

It’s not going to be abstract if it tanks.

PegasusReturns · 15/03/2020 14:46

No

The only way to flatten the curve and prevent unbearable pressure on the NHS is to adopt extreme social distancing. That means 80-90% of the population staying at home. So that those working in essential services (healthcare, police, army, utility and food supply) can get out and when they get sick they can be treated appropriately.

helpfulperson · 15/03/2020 14:48

It think we just don't know. This is a long game. It won't be over in days or weeks, maybe not months. You only have to look at the resistance on here to self isolating for 7 days for a cough or fever to see how hard it would be to achieve an effective lockdown.

The numbers in those countries locking down aren't changing much yet so we don't know yet if they are right either.

YgritteSnow · 15/03/2020 15:04

The only way to flatten the curve and prevent unbearable pressure on the NHS is to adopt extreme social distancing. That means 80-90% of the population staying at home. So that those working in essential services (healthcare, police, army, utility and food supply) can get out and when they get sick they can be treated appropriately.

This.

LesLavandes · 15/03/2020 15:05

I just read your title.

Boris didn't do the medical/scientific analysis. The best Doctors in our country did.

He agreed THEIR approach and obviously had to deliver the news to us.

Give the man a break

LesLavandes · 15/03/2020 15:06

Sorry I hadn't finished. Let's just see. Nobody actually knows the best approach but we should try to stick to our home country rules. Please try

BloodyBoris · 15/03/2020 15:08

No, I believe that Boris and his advisors are completely wrong. I have more trust in WHO and other eminent scientists.

MarshaBradyo · 15/03/2020 15:10

That’s a good pint re rules.

Even if you think he’s wrong stick to what he is saying so far about what you need to do.

MarshaBradyo · 15/03/2020 15:10

Point

Lweji · 15/03/2020 15:17

Many people on here are too abstract when they think of they economy.

The EU has started plans to support the economies and small businesses in affected countries.
One country has just left. Hmm

Lweji · 15/03/2020 15:20

Even if you think he’s wrong stick to what he is saying so far about what you need to do.

People aren't saying he's wrong to be less cautious. We are saying be more cautious.

So, go beyond government guidelines. Most of us are doing that in Portugal as well, in relation to our guidelines.

Shops are closing and people are staying away, even though it's not mandatory.

Cakes4Teatime · 15/03/2020 15:30

Apologies if this has already been posted. I think it explains it well...

Lweji · 15/03/2020 15:40

An epidemiologist's view of the "herd immunity tactic"

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19

HathorX · 15/03/2020 15:41

Yes I do. At least, I hope he is right. His plan will only work if people comply, and based on selfish behaviour so far I fear that may be the flaw in his approach.

Lweji · 15/03/2020 15:48

What the video shows is what all other countries are doing.
Only countries already in trouble or at the verge of collapse are in quarantine. They had the approach that the UK is following now.

What everyone except Boris and his group is saying is that the UK will end up on the flood scenario very soon only with his current measures.
There won't be time for new ventilators or to clear beds.

I hope he right, though. Honestly.

Lweji · 15/03/2020 15:50

His plan will only work if people comply, and based on selfish behaviour so far I fear that may be the flaw in his approach.

Well, quite. Not just selfish. People often can't lose salaries. Where's the support for people staying away from work or from school?