How do you think Coronavirus will pan out?

[Whenisithometime]

It seems to be getting worse. The country is in pandemonium. Everybody in shops fighting over items and leaving nothing for people who actually need stuff.

What way do you all see this panning our? They say it won’t peak until the summer time? Do you see lots of deaths in the UK? ( I know there have been some already)

Do you see the UK going into lockdown etc?

I think afterwards we will have enquires into where the 4 stage plan went wrong. Why we decided on the herd immunity gamble with no evidence of immunity. How children did actually get infected and have symptoms. Why some businesses got propped up by the government and some didn't, how small businesses struggled and some went out of business. Questions about how all business do not have pandemic/epidemic insurance. Complaints about how vulnerable people went without during the crisis. I am seeing this already. How years of cutting services to the bone exasperated the failings in our ability to respond to the infection. Also hopefully talk about how we all pitched in and did our bit to help those less able to help themselves.

I’ve just been shopping. Plenty of everything for everyone here! Although a man in Costco was guarding the toilet roll 🙈. I agree the holiday in April will probably be cancelled. I agree things are about to get really bad. But I also know that 90% of people make a full recovery. Few months of chaos then a gradual move back to normality.

Sally and back, where abouts in the UK are you?.. I'm near m25 South and essentials are stripped back

Scotland

Was the swine flu pandemic back in 2009/10 as bad as this one? I can barely remember it. My friends daughter was pregnant at the time and unfortunately she contracted it and died

I don’t think it was as bad as this. Not even close. I was also pregnant or had just given birth so a bit of a blur. This is serious for sure but some of the estimated death figures floating around in here are insane!

Guys, stop worrying about food and toilet roll and start worrying about the NHS. Please please read this and tell me it's not 100% correct

eand.co/why-britains-coronavirus-strategy-is-literally-one-of-the-most-insane-things-in-modern-history-45c755f1db2d

The WHO, the editor of the Lancet, entire governments, even the prime minister is telling you lots and lots of people are about to die. Do you need to see them dead before you believe?

Self isolate. As much as you can from now on. Don't go to crowded places, don't travel on public transport, keep your distance at work. This is not the time to gamble for a burger or a game of bowling. This is not a drill, it's a genuine pandemic that is coming for you in a couple of weeks. Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it's not going to happen. It is already happening. People are already infected. They are just in the incubation period.

People will feel like idiots when they open their cupboards and see 30 rolls of loo paper and 10 bags of pasta.

I don't have that much of either but frankly I'd rather be an idiot than the alternative. I have asthma and already have scarring on one lung.

@macronspenswiper I live in Leeds. I've been to several supermarkets this week and shelves are full.

Where we are right now is exactly where we are going to be in October - frightened, with much less loo roll

The peak will not be until end June

Well the truth of the matter is nobody really knows exactly how this will pan out or how long for. All we can do is speculate but prepare for a worst case scenario.

Please please read this and tell me it's not 100% correct

It isn't correct.

We're only marginally behind Italy so there's your answer

I think lots of us will lose loved ones, lots of us will be left with complications and lots of us will be absolutely fine. I think longer term there will be some serious restructuring of the nhs and the lack of icu beds and nurses in particular. They eoll also be more interest in tackling social care for a short period. As this really has held up the huge gaps in provision.

Hopefully lessons will be learnt. The NHS will be better supported. Infection control policies for future viruses will be looked at. I think we should look at our meat consumption. Swine/Avion Flu/SARS/ MARS/Covid-19 and many many other viruses are related to this industry.

We’ve been lulled in to a false sense of the security of life during the last 100 years or so.

You seem to have conveniently forgotten that our ancestors lived through two world wars during that time, plus the Blitz. Somehow I doubt they found any sense of security in that.

I think people need to wise up and realise this is the biggest thing to happen in our lifetime so far.

There will be closures (hopefully sooner rather than later) and some sort of lock down, happening in the UK.

It is going to get very very bad. The NHS couldn't cope WITHOUT this major health crisis. Think of your parents or grandparents. Think of them only living for a few more weeks or months, this is the reality. There will be NO provision for existing health conditions, prescription supply chains will be interrupted quicker than you think. Sod toilet roll!

How many people rely on antidepressants/insulin/thyroxine just to get them day to day. How will you collect your prescription, just have a little think about now how much is involved in the logistics of everyday life. Then take out 30% of the workforce within the next few days as they are stuck indoors. How will it all function?

I see people on my social media worrying about oh my wedding is coming up, I hope people will still be able to come. Er, no, obviously they won't. Your wedding will likely be cancelled as will most other non essential things.

I can't believe the mass ignorance I am seeing it is just baffling.

Oh, and to answer the OP’s question - I predict the virus will peak around end of March/early April time, the weather will then begin to get warmer and the whole thing will fade away and disappear.

Once that has happened, I hope the world comes down hard on China and forces the government there to make some serious changes to whatever does need to be changed, because otherwise we’ll no doubt be looking at another pandemic in 10 years’ time. But I won’t hold my breath on that one.

Our peak will be Easter holiday time if we are to believe we are a few weeks behind the likes of Italy.
I’m sitting on the fence as to if we should have already put a country wide ban on going anywhere as no one is prepared for their kids to be off school at the moment and although there are a lot of businesses that aren’t essential (museums, estate agents, hair salons etc) there are people like home carers who are predominantly parents. If they are unable to do home visits then who picks this up? What are we going to do with our most vulnerable when we about to enter ‘survival of the fittest’. We have something like 6 ICU beds per 100,000 people in the uk. We are literally a country which isn’t prepared for snow in winter and drs will have to decide who is more deserving to save

how can it blow over?

the NHS was over-stretched/over-burdened before it started- what do ypu thinks going to happen to 100000s of people who will need hospitalisation?

yeah, i think people on this thread are in major denial- op there wont be holidays to tenerife this april.

Estimates suggest anywhere between 60% and 85% of the UK public to contract it at some point. What we're seeing elsewhere in the world indicates that of all cases roughly 5-6% lead to critical illness, and around 1% fatalities.

Even assuming the lower end figure, i.e. 60%, that's still 39-40million cases, roughly 8million critical cases, and somewhere between 75,000 to 100,000 deaths.

It's not a crisis for the individual, but it's certainly a crisis for the NHS, public services, and the economy. It's up to you to decide how seriously you take it, and assess whether you fancy your chances of being one of those victims or not. Either way, the blase attitudes in certain quarters are ridiculous. This is serious whether you care about the personal risk to yourself or not, and even if you're lucky enough to dodge the virus, you're still going to be dealing with the economic fall-out just like everyone else.

Apologies, roughly 2.5 million critical cases in the UK, and anything up to 500,000 deaths going by Italy, although it appears that their ridiculously high mortality rate is down to huge numbers of undetected cases, rather than being extraordinarily incapable of treating their critical cases.

Italy also has a much more elderly population and we know it hits the elderly the worst. The mean age of death in Italy is 80.3.

I'm afraid that tens of thousands of UK residents will lose their jobs. 20k for British Airways alone?

(I am NOT advocating that this is ok)
Friend & I had the sobering thought that a high death rate of oldies would solve the long-term NHS funding crisis, the pension crisis & the housing crisis in one fell swoop.