Is this whole thing being exaggerated?

[agentstarling]

Coronavirus seems to only affect mostly older people with already compromised immune systems. So far we have had only 11 deaths some being 80 even a ninety-year-old. The press is whipping people up into a hysteria in my view I have a degree in biology I am not a doctor but I would say that some of this is ridiculous.

I have to go to hospital. What do you suggest?
I'm pretty sure I'm talking about old people I saw in supermarkets. You have to go to hospital, you have to go to hospital.
In a supermarket, kids running around, ignorant people everywhere , I mean.... I won't let my parents take the chance.

If you're immunocompromised how long do you self isolates for?

Until a vaccine is available? So at least 12 months or more?

If you have a biology degree then you should understand mortality rates and R0. So I’m unsure why you don’t understand that the low number of deaths is due to the current low numbers of infected people - keeping it that way is what we want.

Oh and the number of U.K. deaths from COVID has literally doubled overnight. It’s now 21 (possibly more since I read that headline)

I think goldenorbspider raises an interesting point. There are many very contagious viruses that unfortunately kill some people and they’re doing the rounds all the time. Is coronavirus so significantly worse? I don’t think the op intended to cause offence and I’m pretty sure she wouldn’t say older and immunocompromised people don’t matter (at least I hope she wouldn’t say that) but I think it’s valid to question whether we are overreacting. The media do like to whip us all up into a frenzy but I totally take onboard how quickly the NHS could be overwhelmed and I don’t underestimate how devastating the death toll could be.

I'm in town, London suburbs. It's no different to every other Saturday. Families, old people, usual demographic.

Nobody seems to have the answer to how long you lockdown for. And what happens when lockdown is lifted? Corona will still be circulating.

Hi Boris! Twiddling your thumbs this Saturday, thought you’d start a thread? Piss off.

Any disease spreads exponentially that's how diseases spread the rate of change changes. I am not saying it is not a serious public health concern or that old people do not matter but people are acting as though this is the plague. It is simply not the case that this is particularly deadly like malaria or something. In Hubei province there are about 58 million people it only killed 3000 people. In Italy it killed a lot of people because they have a lot more old people in their country. However a death rate of 1% is not significant when you consider that most of those people would have probably died in the next five years anyway. The only time I was concerned was when that young doctor died in China however if they have had 150000 cases then there will be anomolies. The pressure put on the NHS is the main concern but people are acting like everyone is gonna die etc MRSA has a much higher mortality rate although obv it is not spreading throughout the population. However I think people are reacting like this because this is a new and unknown thing.

Is coronavirus so significantly worse?

Do you honestly think so many countries would be putting measures in place which significantly harm the economy and inconvenience people if it weren’t significantly worse?

Why?

The R0 for COVID19 is higher than flu, approaching SARS level. This is the number of people each infected person is likely to infect. The mortality rate is far higher

We have a huge number of flu deaths each year despite a vaccination programme.

Imagine how many flu deaths there would be if vulnerable people didn’t have access to the flu jab.

Now imagine how many people will if as many people get Corona as get flu.

It’s not that hard to understand.

The case load is supposed to be maybe 10000 so even if the death rate is 100 that is still the projected 1%

This is a good explanation

medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

The death rate will be around 30x worse if we don't delay infection & end up with an unmanageable spike.

Not a risk I want to take

*If you're immunocompromised how long do you self isolates for?

Until a vaccine is available? So at least 12 months or more?*

Yes. Because that is more realistic than to expect the country to shut down till they find a cure.
Fact is, the cat's out of the bag. We're 13 days behind where italy is. The disease is most likely running through the population RIGHT NOW. 111 were telling people coming back from Italy to carry on as normal, in error, for 2 days. This is about to take off.
I am advising that if you are vulnerable, then please self-isolate in the harshest manner possible. Who knows if they're going to be able to stop this. It will kick off in the next fortnight and most of the people who will fall to this have already contracted it.... .and they will overwhelmingly be the elderly.

I won't let my parents take the chance

I assume my parents know what's best for them....I may not agree with their decision but it's theirs to make. How are you going to stop yours? Lock them up?

OP I agree with you.

However a death rate of 1% is not significant when you consider that most of those people would have probably died in the next five years anyway.

But the mortality rate is not 1% for the elderly. The average is brought down significantly by children under 10, those age 10-40, and 40-50

In confirmed cases, the mortality rate for those over 80 is over 21%

Average at the moment is 3.4%

When or if hospital beds start getting rationed doctors will start choosing otherwise healthy coronavirus patients who need respirators over younger cancer / cystic fibrosis / autoimmune disease / heart patients who need their normal treatment to stay alive. That may mean choosing a 40 yo over a 10 yo with heart problems.

Sad to say but deaths are unavoidable whatever happens or whichever way it's done. Nobody has any answers to the future, but I can't see how it won't still be circulating somewhere in (say) 9 months time, ready to make a comeback and affect both vulnerable and less vulnerable demographics, despite all the isolation efforts. It's unrealistic for populations to completely self-isolate until it's completely eradicated, it might never be.

@Alice02132354, my DH is immunocompromised. He's 51. Are you seriously saying he shouldn't leave the house for over a year?

I am advising that if you are vulnerable, then please self-isolate in the harshest manner possible.

Those who are most vulnerable (elderly, severely sick or disabled) are the least able to self isolate since they rely on the care of others.

OP the fatality rate in Italy is over seven per cent. Can you really not look around you and imagine that number of people you know dying ?
Also the “ Oh it is only an old person” thing is horrible. My Mil is 84. Difficult though she is, I am hoping has at least another good decade to go. She is very healthy and from a long lived family, so it is quite possible.
Old people, and people with health conditions, are constantly being trotted out as though they don’t matter at all.

agent the number in Hubei was 3000 because of those draconian measures. Do you really not see that because we are unable/unwilling to go to those lengths that our deaths/infections are going to be much higher? It is not just going to disappear whilst there are people to infect.

@sinkgirl I don’t know if coronavirus is significantly worse, that’s why I posed it as a question.

I assume my parents know what's best for them....I may not agree with their decision but it's theirs to make. How are you going to stop yours? Lock them up?
Sorry but this is really dangerous. You have a disease that is almost exclusively killing old people. You have to convince them to stay indoors. This is lethal. My mum has been convinced and is appropriately afraid of what's to come. They all like to remain active and pretend they're young and can deal with stuff. You must convince them that unless they take care of themselves, they are taking a big chance right now. Like I said, in 2 weeks we will see similar numbers of deceased as Italy is reporting now... those people have already contracted the disease... it will take 2 weeks to reach a critical stage. Please take care.

Incidentally, does anyone know how long the flu jab has been available and stats for how infection and mortality rates have changed because of it?

@BirthdayCakeCandle, it will only be partially eradicated through vaccination. Like all viruses it will mutate and reinfect over time.

This could and probably will kill hundreds of thousands of people in the UK. I know they’re mostly old people so don’t matter (judging by your post?) but no if anything I’d say they probably aren’t exaggerating it enough.