Depressing- death rate

[AnotherMurkyDay]

Just wondered if anybody had any idea what the predicted death rate might be in the UK? I have done my own calculations but not sure if I've gone wrong somewhere as whichever way I've done it the numbers Come out worryingly high. Thanks

The death rate is expected to be 1%-3%. Boris said up to 80% of the population may get the virus. UK population is 66,440,000. So it follow a maximum of about 53 million may get the virus. Then a maximum of 0.5 to 1.5 million could die.

This is worse case scenario.

Another statistic to consider:

As of 9am 13 March 2020, a total of 32,771 people have been tested in the UK, of which 31,973 were confirmed negative and 798 confirmed as positive.

That means that only 2.5% of those tested who show symptoms of coronavirus actually have coronavirus. The others, presumably, have other flu or respiritary viruses.

Yes I'd come out at around 1 million using the 80% that's incredibly worrying. I just hope 80% don't actually get it.

Nowhere has come close to even a 1% infection rate, let alone 80%.

I'm old and I remember when there was a tv programme for kids called 'Why Don't You just switch of the tv and go and do something less boring instead'.

Seriously OP, what point does this thread have? You can't predict exactly what will happen and all you risk doing is making anxious people even more worried. Why not do something else instead. Worrying over stats changes nothing.

Why would you start a thread called 'Depressing - Death Rate'. Just why.

There are so many anxious people on Mumsnet at the moment. This sort of thing doesn't help.

People are calculating current death rate against current known cases (making it 1.3% in the U.K.). This is wildly inaccurate as it doesn’t account for the many, MANY people that have mild symptoms and don’t report to hospital.

Data suggests the true number of cases in the U.K. could be up to 10,000 (perhaps much higher now). If you calculate the current death rate against those numbers it’s around 0.1%.

Thanks. I thought the title would deter anybody who didn't want to be depressed by the death rate and I just wondered if the calculations I'd done were way off or not. I'm not trying to add to anybody else's anxiety. I'm feeling plenty anxious myself.

The mood on MN has really changed. It's like we're all meant to be tiptoeing around everybody else's mental health right now. I posted on the Coronavirus topic intentionally because people who want to can unfollow it. I'm not trying to be inflammatory just trying to get my facts straight.

11 people have died in the uk 11 .
Stop this now give your head a wobble with the drama .

I'm reporting this and any threads that are creating panic it's just not necessary.

@AnotherMurkyDay ok, I appreciate that you're not trying to cause panic. There's no doubt that some are. Take care, and try not to worry too much.

Im actually trying do the opposite of cause panic. I'm trying to get a realistic idea not based on the scaremongering. The government saying 80% of us will probably get it has caused the panic.

If people are worried for the anxious folk then the title of this thread should make sure those people dont click into it.

Anyone watch Joe Rogan's interview with Micheal Osterholm he is a medical examiner, it's on utube, very interesting.

This year so far

5547 people worldwide died from the coronavirus
Over a million due to smoking
Over half a million due to alcohol
Nearly 300 000 road deaths
Over 200 000 due to suicide
Nearly 200 000 due to malaria
Over 150 000 due to inadequate clean water.
Nearly 100 000 due to seasonal flu

If you don't spend your life worrying about the other risks in life then try to put this into perspective. Admittedly some of these issues don't generally affect us in this country but that just highlights how privileged we are and the need to consider the issues in perspective. You are still far more likely to die from something else.

80% is a worst case scenario, not a ‘probably’ scenario.

@idontlike789

I didn't even mention the 80% I just asked about the predicted death rate and posters have come up with different answers depending if you go on the 80% or the current rate etc.

The peak infection rate in Wuhan was 5%. I think 80% is unlikely. Follow advice, definitely, isolate with symptoms or if concerned but this isn't an apocalypse.

@TW2013

Yes I do spend time worrying about those other things. Obviously this seems more urgent right now but I have nearly been killed by much more minor viruses than this.

@idontlike789. A very unkind & uninformed post. 11 people have died so far, at one point 11 people had died worldwide - it’s now over 5000 in a very short period of time. Plus the 11 is far from the truth. They are not testing people who have died ‘before their time’ that they can put down as heart attacks/underlying health conditions etc.

Do you really think China & Italy etc closed down the country because it’s nothing to be worried about?!

It’s time for some people to wake up & smell the coffee, putting your head in the sand isn’t going to make this go away

Why do people lurk in topics they have no interest in?

People are scared, good on you if you’re not, but you can’t police other peoples worries.

@AnotherMurkyDay. There’s nothing wrong with your thread in this topic. You’re allowed to voice your worries. You’re not alone 🌷

@bathsh3ba

I don't think it is the apocalypse. 2% of 5% of the UK population is still fucking scary.

@Bestoption

Thanks. I would have expected this reaction in Another topic but surprised on here. It's like hanging about in prepping just to tell people they are being hysterical for prepping.

I believe that nearly all of those who have died were already critically ill. ie already hanging onto life by a thread. Many elderly people are on massive drug regimes just to make it day to day. It takes very little to tip the balance, unfortunately modern medicine has a lot to answer regarding the brittleness of geriatric health.
It’s ok when everyone else is fit and well but behind the scenes HCP have been dreading the arrival of this perfect storm.
I am impressed how the government have held their nerve. Politicians are notoriously egotistical and thrive on being popular but in this situation egos have to be thrown out of the window. The scientists have been predicting & planning for this very situation for decades.
We have no real hotspots like other EU countries. The virus seems to have spread evenly across the country which may be a distinct advantage. A concentrated hotspot leads to overwhelmed NHS in that region and general exodus of the “well” population in fear. However there are no areas in the UK not affected so no benefit to move around the country. As a land mass we are pretty much the size of most of the regions where lockdown has happened so limiting movement is pointless.
People have been slow on the uptake of how serious the situation is, by exposing us to uncensored hysterical media reports has had the desired effect, we understand why we will have to lock down and people are already making plans. Last week the rest of Europe were laughing at us for panic buying, this week they are all in lockdown and have seen much higher growth rate of the virus.
When asked to do so, most of us will not be surprised of unprepared. Most of us will have been quietly self isolating and social distancing already.

@bathsh3ba. The infection rate isn’t the same thing as what percentage of the population will contract the virus.

Plus Wuhan did a SHIT load more, far quicker to contain it, in order to halt it and in order to give the rest of the world a chance to prepare, which we squandered.

Half a million people die in England and Wales every year from all causes. If 500,000 die from the virus (using Governments own figures) the mortality rate in 2020 will double.

@willdoitinaminute A lot of people who die from this virus were living and working but with common conditions like high blood pressure or diabetes. Hardly hanging onto life by a thread.