How many people actually understand what a lockdown would involve?

[Bearbehind]

I realise there’s outrage about our governments handling of this but, on one hand we appear to have countless people insisting schools must shut now

And on the other hand we have people who-

• think they could still participate in their hobbies
• think a lock down would be over in a fortnight
• think they could go on a cheap holiday while the kids are off

How many people genuinely understand locking down now will be for months and you won’t be classed as ‘exceptional’ or ‘special’ - you’ll be expected to actually stay inside for the duration otherwise it achieves nothing.

What on earth do you mean what Italy is doing isn't enough? Their measures are proving effective at stopping new cases which is why they've rolled them out to the whole country: www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51852320

Closing schools and total lockdown are worlds apart.

The whole point is unless its closely linked to significant other measures, closing schools is counter productive

Check out the posters who’d take their kids to the beach if the schools were shut but no other restrictions were in place

Living through the lockdown in Italy. I'll tell you our rules.
You can go out for food shopping and medicines. In small shops it's one person at a time, in big supermarkets they define a number but not many, the rest wait outside. You go alone, not seen any kids around, I took my youngest as the shops shut earlier and I had no way of going otherwise. Most people have masks on.

You can walk the dog and go for a jog in quiet places where you can maintain the 1m rule but no one is doing the second right now because it doesn't seem right somehow.

You can go to work if your work is not possible from home but there is a swathe of legislation about what your employer has to do to guarantee your safety

Plumbers, electricians, computer techs etc are still working but taking all the precautions. Deliveries still getting through from Amazon.

It's bad but not as bad as you might think. It's the small businesses and self employed that are suffering the most.

From a family member in China a message he sent out.

Getting cabin fever here. I have only been out twice in the last month. Once to the pharmacy and once to the supermarket. I have put on 3kg already.
I miss my cycling.

COVID19
I will post this as somebody asked.
As most of you know I live in China and we have been through the first wave (there will be others) of CoviD19. Here is just a little of what we are experiencing now, after the first wave.

Everything here is slowly going back to normal. Hand sanitizer, masks etc. are now back in the shops. Public parks are starting to re-open, but currently restaurants etc. are still only allowed to do take out and food delivery. There are now zero cases in our city of 7m people, and we have had no new cases in 15 days now. There are only two remaining cases in the province.

The policy of containment has worked very well. One of the first beneficial uses of big data has been the use of a mobile phone app and QR codes. When we leave the housing development we scan a QR code. Before we enter public spaces (parks, pharmacies, supermarkets, malls) we get a temperature check (if temp is high entry refused) and we scan a QR entry code. When we leave we scan a QR exit code. We then have a temp. check and scan an entry code to re enter the housing development. If someone later tests positive for the virus, the records will show where they have been, who they may have come in contact with, and the authorities then call people and actively follow up.

The biggest part has been the behavior of people. Most of the population has practiced social distancing. Not going to public places unless necessary and maintaining a 2m distance from others where you can. This in a culture where people always jostle and push.

Toilet paper. The roots of this one are in Hong Kong. Early on someone suggested that toilet paper manufacture in China would be hit. People in HK added toilet paper to the panic buy lists. Singapore did the same. There has been panic buying of TP in the UK as well, although I think most of the TP in Europe is manufactured in Sweden (believe it or not TP used to be Nokia’s main product).

Simple advice I can give. Practice social isolation. Don’t go out unless you need to, and combine errands when you must. Wear gloves as well as a mask when you go out. Avoid close contact with others. Don’t touch surfaces (like elevator buttons, ATM screens) with bare hands if you can avoid it. Avoid touching your face (including your eyes). Wash your hands when you get back.
If people come to your door, talk through the door.
These precautions are more of an 'bottom' ache than we are used to, but they have worked well in China.

I wouldn't want to online shop. Shopping is my excuse to walk down the street! Taking the bins out has become a coveted job!!

Exactly 2 weeks if I hadn't got my dog to the vets he would have died. I'm not talking about taking him for a walk or for a routine vets appointment but a genuine "life or death" moment. What would happen in that situation?

@Bearbehind
Exactly!
Closing schools cannot work without other social distancing measures.

It's impossible to know what a lockdown would look like - it would probably change every few days anyway.

I'm wondering whether we could initially stay at home for a month (no leaving the house at all), and then, once we were reasonably sure we didn't have the virus, drive to my parents house and stay with them for the rest of the time. They live in the middle of nowhere, with a decent-sized garden, so the kids could still get out and run around. They're also right by a beach, so we could use that (obviously going back indoors if other people appeared).

You can close school to all but those children of parents in essential roles ( i think its new york and one of the Scandinavian countries that has taken that route)

The reality will be different when people in their 20’s and 30’s are taken by the virus. It is at present something that happens to the nearly dead old.

Deliveries still getting through from Amazon.

FFS - what absolute fuckwits are still placing Amazon orders and expecting them to be delivered in a country supposedly in lockdown

They are in some kind of parallel, entitled universe and are completely indicative of what people perceive as ‘necessity’ ’

Italy doesn't expect to see the results of the national lockdown for another week at least, it's too early to know if it has helped. Locking down just a (big) zone didn't work as it was leaked and there was a mass exodus of people to second homes on the coast, and back to their families in the south. Those areas are now expecting a surge in cases at the weekend.

The first small town to be locked down has no new cases so it seems to have worked there.

@bearbehind

The first person to mention "popping to the shops or doctors" was you, right underneath where you quoted what @mouldyoldonkeyactually said, which was "but what about essential trips to supermarkets, doctors etc?". Two very different things.

I'm not sure why you're being quite so superior or, in fact, where your authority comes from on what a 'lockdown' might look like in this country - no-one does unless and until one is implemented. At which point, I'm sure the terms will be made very clear for everyone, so we won't need you to start rude, patronising threads and to wilfully misunderstand people.

There is a problem with lockdowns of course because preventing the spread of the virus throughout the population means no herd immunity is developed. So there is a risk that the virus keeps coming back, staying alive in isolated pockets and then re-spreading as soon as lockdowns end. Lots of people will be watching China (and Italy once they lift their restrictions) very closely to see if lockdowns have a reasonable chance of killing the virus or if it will just start up again.

I'm not sure which is worse. One massive spread and then it settles down, or lots of smaller outbreaks. Hard to tell which would be deadlier or have a greater impact to be honest.

The only things that worry me about lockdown are -

if water supplies fail or it isn't possible to get enough food through controlled methods or shopping or whatever is allowed (though frankly it would have to be a long lockdown for my fat stores to run out).

Or, and this is mostly my worry, if a relative was ill and you were not allowed to see or help them. And just missing family.

Otherwise I'm up for it, I like to read. If the Internet went that would be bad for me, I don't have a tv. Maybe I should get a radio.

itsgoing if you don’t understand that whether you call it ‘popping’ to the shops or you personally consider it going there on essential business, it’s not freely allowed under lockdown conditions, there’s little point in me trying to explain

the massive spread would break our NHS I think.

Theres no evidence for herd immunity with coronavirus

Eg oxford virologist on BBC daily politics today.

@Hazelnutlatteplease well then someone needs to tell England's chief scientific adviser that www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-science-chief-defends-uk-measures-criticism-herd-immunity

I was ill mostly in bed for six weeks a few years ago. You do learn patience. I could stay home, read, watch tv, drink a little wine. OH would go round the bend. So my concern is keeping him confined. With children it must be very hard.

There are two things here.

Firstly, I think it’s fair to say that we don’t live in the kind of totalitarian state that China is. Talk of scanning barcodes and having the government turn up at your door to take your temperature before then taping it shut again big brother knowing where you are and why at all times and having the power to come after you if they don’t approve. And a lot of that is just how they live generally. I’m quite certain that would never fly in the west. People here didn’t even vote for an ID card, imagine having all those other measures in place as well.

Secondly, lockdown is only to create a delay. There is still going to be a spike in the virus, and as unpalatable as it is, people are still going to die. And in truth even once there is a vaccine, people will still die, because that’s the nature of underlying health conditions.

But it’s a case of how long we can delay the spike for. China locked down in January, it will be interesting now to see how long it takes for cases to start recurring and whether in fact lockdown happened to early. Similar for Italy.

If people start taking personal responsibility for themselves by social distancing etc then it might in fact not be necessary to bring about a lockdown, but even if it is, we’re far behind other countries which means that the spike will happen here much later than in other countries, and closer to there being a vaccine.

It’s a balancing act.

OP - you seem to have an idea of what 'lockdown' should be, which is far more extreme than it will be.

Of course people still need to buy things - Amazon deliveries makes more sense than opening shops where the staff stocking shelves have to come into contact with the public and the customers with each other. deliveries (esp those that can be left on doorsteps, bell rung and then the driver walk away!) is a practical way round this.

Necessity is getting on with life. Buying food or household items so you can live indoors.

Getting exercise for yoruself and pets in a practical way that minimises risk of spreading diseases, but keeps people healthy.

The idea that it's a good idea to keep people indoors for weeks on end, living off what they have in the cupboads is rediculous. And frankly any government who suggests it better be a dictatorship, because no electrate will let a democratically elected government get away with that.

Just about every other scientists is coming out against herd immunity, the WHO is coming out against herd immunity. The scientific papers suggesting reinfection are open access and linked on the worried about Corona virus thread.

And of course herd immunity will develop. If immunity was an issue then there would be no point developing a vaccine which incidentally won’t be available to all...

In numbers we are two weeks behind italy. That's it.