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When is it expected to peak & how long until we're back to normal?

34 replies

peppersneezes000 · 13/03/2020 08:28

I'm in the rep of Ireland, our schools are closed from today.... I'm just wondering when are they expecting the actual peak of the epidemic to hit, I'm sure the UK & ROI will have similar timelines... When can we expect a return to everyday life? All my kids activities have been cancelled & they are cracking up already, too young to understand the importance of the measures...
Anyone have an idea? Judging by China's recovery I'm thinking maybe mid May?
Our schools here are closed until March 29th but I think that will stretch out longer

OP posts:
Allaboardthemagicbus2020 · 14/03/2020 01:32

@lubeybooby

According to that chart we will have more deaths over a slower pace?

Going by the gap between when the red and blue lines hit zero.

Hopeisnotastrategy · 14/03/2020 04:07

No, the graph shows the number of cases not deaths. Also to me the total area under the blue curve actually looks slightly smaller than that under the red one, which if true would mean there’d be slightly less cases.

Hopeisnotastrategy · 14/03/2020 04:09

The whole idea of flattening out the curve is to ensure as many people as possible get the best care and reduce mortalities.

Hopeisnotastrategy · 14/03/2020 04:10

China started at the latest in a December but was hushed by the authorities in Wuhan for goodness knows how long,

KittyJune · 14/03/2020 04:45

China took proper precautions and the UK is taking basically none. I live in China and the entire country self-isolated for four weeks. Without fail. Everyone did. Even now when the epidemic is almost officially over according to WHO standards, group meetings are still banned and you mustn't go outside without a mask, thus ensuring that if you have the virus you can't accidentally spread it to others.

The UK government is saying people just need to wash their hands and self-isolate for 7 days once they start to show symptoms (by which point they could have already been spreading the virus round for two weeks, because you can have Coronavirus for 2 weeks before you start to show symptoms). Unless something DRASTICALLY changes in the way that this is being dealth with in the UK, there is absolutely no hope that the virus will be contained in a short period of time that it was in China.

KittyJune · 14/03/2020 05:08

Also, it is false that 'normal life' is being resumed in China right now. A few businesses have reopened, but nobody is still allowed outside without masks, and nobody can get inside any shop, office building, apartment complex, public transport, etc, without having their temperature taken before they go in. Visitors are not allowed to ANYONE'S home, you need an ID card to prove you live in your apartment complex and nobody from outside is allowed in. Schools are still closed, except in one province which had very few cases and even there only colleges and a few high schools have started to open: again, everyone has their temperature taken on the way in.

IronNeonClasp · 14/03/2020 10:01

@KittyJune really interesting information. I'm still in disbelief that people in the UK are playing down the severity of the situation.

I still can't work out what the timeline is if anyone can answer me please. My ex-H and I were debating it at about 7am. He thinks May/June I think we are in incubation mass spread phase and the news is seriously slow compared to reporting high profile news on a 'normal' day - I don't know if anyone else thinks that? Today's paper headlines were practically identical to yesterday's...

Allaboardthemagicbus2020 · 14/03/2020 13:44

Yes, my error I read the flat line as deaths (for some reason).

SubordinateThatClause · 14/03/2020 13:49

I think the whole world order may well shift... with a world wide pandemic, there'll be a world wide economic crash. Possibly levelling the playing field, possibly giving rise to some undesirable leaders. Who knows. I do think this will be a marker though. We will refer to life before it and life after it.

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