I think the peak would be in about six weeks if they didn’t delay it. What’s happening now is they are trying to avoid a quick sharp peak, basically drag it out longer, because then the nhs has a better chance of coping. And by coping they mean have beds available for those who need them and not have to refuse people who desperately need it care.
So instead of it peaking quickly they are attempting to make the peak less sharp and more prolonged, and up until June or July time so they have the beds available but also as they learn more every day about it.
The issue is the rest of the world. The Uk is trying to stagger cases. Stretch out that peak. The rest of the world is trying to halt it, but the science is apparantly saying if you restrict too quickly and then either people start to break the restrictions or you lift them, the virus will just hit again, peak and the health care systems will not be able to cope. I suspect at that point the uk will close its doors.
They also are trying to manage the economy. If too many restrictions, businesses will shut down, they will go bust. Many are already struggling. People will loose their jobs. Hence why they are doing things like relaxing sick pay, reducing interest rates, mortgage holidays etc, to try to help businesses stay open over the next few months.
Otherwise we come out of it with a whole bunch of other problems. Mass unemployment giving pressure to sheer amount of benefits needing to be paid , People loosing their homes because they couldn’t pay the mortgage, and pressure on re housing them.
So they are trying to manage it in a way that keeps the economy working and ensures people can get care if they need it, as far as they can.