Do you want to keep you kids off at the moment?

[Jerseygaly]

Posted here for voting not in other areas.

Yes I would much prefer to keep my DC off school.

Unfortunately i think the peak and death rate will be huge.
Possibly 1m.
Also if people end up in icu i think a lot end up there long term- see numbers not recovered.
Have to say gov are putting nhs staff at risk by not testing. As they are then sent to gp.
At this rate half the hospital staff and gps will have it and have to be off before we get started.
I took mine out but theyve been ill so who knows it we have it now. I tell you its scary when they or you have felt feverish and have to wait and see. Especially with the children.
They have tried to pretend our numbers are kow by not testing.
They have said about incubation times and yet and new study showed most contagious before symptoms!

They have allowed flights of infected people return to work.
They have said nhs will cope when this cannot possibly be true. The amount italy have is only the start. Millions will have to catch it. And the death rate will climb as the beds are full already. The rate should slow a little though due to the actions taken.

Just out of interest, those who are keeping them off, how long are you planning on keeping them at home for? This will go on for months and months. I don’t think there’s any sense in keeping them at home unless it’s for the foreseeable future... 6 months? A year?

^ And those who said yes, what will you do when Covid 19 inevitably returns next late-fall?

It is a no from me. One child is in flexi boarding and is actually safer at school.

Yes.

Am keeping ds off already, suggested dd who has A Levels this year is off. I am WFH. Most of us are asthmatic. No way that GCSEs or A Levels will be going ahead this year

Unless the UK changes course rapidly, there will be at least a million deaths in the UK, almost certainly far more. The death rate in Italy is currently 6%. Do you want 6% of the people you know to die? Or do you just not care because you're young?

Other countries with far fewer cases than us which are closing all the schools proactively rather than taking the UK approach - which will be closing the stable door after the horse has bolted - aren't doing it for a laugh.

They are doing it because the research is absolutely clear that proactively closing schools massively reduces the death rates.

Why are people unable to read basic science and/or history and understand basic maths?

We are keeping dc off, at least until easter.

If schools are still open then we will de-reg.

@effingterrified great that you can work from home. I can't, and I have a 6 year old. I live month to month. Who is going to pay my rent and bills if I decide to take an indefinite amount of time off work to keep DS off?

Not all of us have a choice. Until government closes schools, DS is going in because I need to work to live.

Yes both

We need to wait until the numbers with it are higher.If we delay too soon we will just cause a massive peak when we send them back,people go back to work and it will happen in autumn then.
A flatter peak in summer means that with a reduction in seasonal flu the NHS will be better able to cope.
We are still going to get it whatever we do but trying to time it so it is more manageable.

The govt say their response is informed by modelling. I want to see this modelling. There's not enough information for anyone to be making informed decisions.

Waxonwaxoff0 - I sympathise and agree that it is really tough for people in your shoes. It is shocking that the government hasn't done what eg Japan or Ireland have done and guaranteed a minimum income to those forced to stay at home.

However, ensuring social distancing is vital for keeping infection rates low enough that the NHS can cope.

Otherwise we will end up where is Italy is now, having to ignore all elderly patients and leave them to die as they have too few beds and ventilators to go round.

Is that an acceptable option to you?

effingterrified of course it's not acceptable. But my top priority is my own child, as I'm sure is true of most of us. And keeping a roof over my child's head by going to work is what I will do until forced otherwise. Unless the government is going to pay my bills I need to carry on as normal.

@effingterrified, I felt exactly as you did about the schools until yesterday.

I now have come to believe that government simply cannot prevent this from eventually spreading throughout whatever portion of the population it's going to spread through. They can only affect the timing, and they only have a few blunt instruments. They can hopefully reduce the number of deaths by trying to help us not to all get it at the same time, but they just cannot cause a situation where most people don't get it at all, no matter what policy they use -- using all the tools at once would instead mean that when they finally have to let people go back to work / school / etc., it would mushroom again with no effective containment tools left.

Also, regarding schools, data from WHO's fact finding mission in Wuhan, China suggested that surprisingly, very few infections spread from children to adults in their own households. Plus, one of the concerns with closing schools is that children would instead stay with their grandparents, who are more vulnerable.

The real problem with spread is actually more about the parents and other adults spreading it to one other when they socialise, or commute, or go to work, even if they have "a little sniffle".

The number of people who go into work even when ill has always been appallingly high. Even though it won't stop the asymptomatic spreading, It actually will make a significant difference in the total spreading if people with a cough or fever would just stay home. There are also many, many other things that each individual can do.

www.flattenthecurve.com/

One of the other parents at childminders is saying they have it. I'm assuming self diagnosed as no one resting anymore. No idea what to do

HelpFlattenTheCurve - what an ironic name, as you apparently don't understand what flattening the curve means and that the government are failing to take appropriate action to do it - unlike pretty much all other countries with similar numbers.

You said "I now have come to believe that government simply cannot prevent this from eventually spreading throughout whatever portion of the population it's going to spread through." Er...yes, that's what flattening the curve is all about. I have no idea why you ever thought that the intention was to stop it spreading EVENTUALLY - but that eventually is a key word.

There is a massive difference in whether the vast majority are likely to catch it:

1. - after we have created a vaccine = not a threat
2. - after we have found a cure = not a threat
3. - in small numbers over a long period of time = a threat, but a more manageable one.

Instead, the government have stated that they want us all to get it soon to get to something magical called "herd immunity". Ignoring the fact that with a disease where no-one has natural immunity and where there is no vaccine, this can only be achieved by vast numbers getting the disease and many dying from it.

That is WHY the WHO recommends extensive social distancing measures and why they have been introduced by virtually all other countries - they are trying to slow numbers down so that if they can't get to 1. or 2., at least they can hope to ensure 3. that the cases come slowly enough, so the NHS won't be overwhelmed.

But is Boris doing that? Are we shutting schools? Encouraging people to work from home where possible?

Are we fuck.

Yes I want to keep them off. I’m pissed with this herd immunity plan. My kids aren’t some experiment none of us are!

No. Happy to follow the CMO's advice. Petition is pointless, we need to listen to experts, not panic-mongers on social media.

Yep

@effingterrified, you may of course be right that they should be taking stronger measures right now. I think that nobody knows for sure, including you are them.

I am merely saying that I now believe them when they say that there are real constraints preventing them from taking strong measures and maintaining them for long enough to make the problem go away. They're taking their best guess as to what is the right course. of action. This article explains it pretty well
www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51874084

I have come to believe is that in order to wait for a cure or vaccine, we would have to lock down for such a long time (1-2-3 years?) that the lockdown would become impossible to sustain, so paradoxically, doing it now could make it even worse.

Alternatively, without a cure or treatment, we could do a lockdown every few months, but that could go on for literally years and years. One lockdown, OK, but multiple lockdowns every year over a long period could cause enough other problems to be even worse than this virus.