Time to close the schools

[PaddyF0dder]

I can’t believe I’m saying this. I’m a dad to 3 very young boys. Our eldest is nearly 6 and is on the spectrum. Our twins are nearly 3. They’re hard work when they’re stuck in the house. I also work as a doctor in the NHS. Closing the schools would be a nightmare for us.

I think we need to do it, and do it early.

Watching how this virus is spreading, seeing how harmful it’s been in other countries, reading the stats on transmission, burned on healthcare etc... closing schools and nurseries really seems to be the most logical step.

The UK is at a turning point. We’re entering the stage of sustained transmission. We may already be too late. But we might still have time to enact draconian measures early as opposed to late. Closing school and nurseries. Limiting travel around the country. It seems inevitable that these things will happen, but doing it early might save the lives of the sick and vulnerable.

I honestly don’t know how my family will cope with it. We have absolutely no family support re childcare. We both work hard jobs in the NHS. I wish there was a better option. But the more I look at the facts of this outbreak, the more obvious it gets.

We need to reduce viral transmission. There are many ways, and all must be done. One such way is to close schools and nurseries. We need to do it now.

"Children aren't super spreaders"

60 schools were shut across the NE in Nov due to a virus.

www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-50504525

School age kids are disgusting.

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This!!!

School kids are disgusting
but they will not change just because they are in the park rather than at school

as has been shown in Italy, closing schools does not stop people gathering in groups

School age kids are disgusting

No one is arguing that children cannot transmit the virus (though there are no recorded incidents in China of a child having done so). But children are not super-spreaders, as I keep seeing MNetters claiming.

People are anxious about their children's safety, which is perfectly understandable, but it helps no one to spread myths and feed panic.

Mrs noah.
I don't know what experience you have with dc but everyday I have see drink sharing, slurping from each others cans, food sharing + bites from a each iyees

I linked to the original research earlier, but I have read so many reports, I'm losing track of them. Children DO get infected at the same rates as adults, but they have less severe symptoms. They haven't driven infections in China, because they haven't been circulating like normal.

“Kids are just as likely to get infected and they’re not getting sick,” says Justin Lessler, an infectious-disease epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, Maryland. He co-led the study with Johns Hopkins epidemiologist Qifang Bi, and epidemiologists Ting Ma, at the Harbin Institute of Technology in Shenzhen, and Tiejian Feng, of the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention. They posted the analysis to the medRxiv preprint server on 4 March.

The study is unique in that it looked at not only people who were infected with the virus, but also large numbers of their close contacts, some of whom were infected and many who were not. The researchers followed 391 people who were diagnosed based on their symptoms, and 1,286 of their close contacts to see whether they tested positive for the virus even if they didn’t show symptoms. Overall, the team found that children under 10 who were potentially exposed to the virus were just as likely to become infected as other age groups, with about 7 and 8% of contacts of known cases later testing positive.

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w

Mrs noah. I don't know what experience you have with dc but everyday I have see drink sharing, slurping from each others cans, food sharing + bites from a each iyees

See previous answer. Children can probably spread the virus, but they are not super-spreaders.

Forgot to mention phone confiscation!

Can you explain what a superspreader is mrsnoah? the term is used a lot; I'd like to know what it means.

I bought 50 pens today to give out in class and for them to keep as I don't want them to give the pens back.

School kids are disgusting, but they will not change just because they are in the park rather than at school

I don't think anyone has said they will change. However, their numbers will be greatly reduced. A group of children in the park is miles apart from 100s / 1000s in a school.

Yes, nellodee

There are 3 different questions:

Do children get infected? Answer: yes though most have only very mild symptoms.

Can children spread the infection? Answer: haven't been shown to do so, but probably yes

Are children super-spreaders? Definitely not.

My school uses an outside caterer; the kitchen staff are only paid for the hours they work; they don’t get sick pay (other than the small amount of SSP they can claim after a certain amount of days). If the school closes they won’t be paid by their employer (not the school) and as the caterer go company is basically a school catering company they may go out of business... that’s hundreds of employees out of work PLUS no one to feed the children when the school reopens.

If the decision is made to close the schools there will be huge financial impact. I don’t know if I’d be paid. We can survive on DHs salary but I’m unusual...most of my colleagues would face severe problems.

It's expected that 60-80% of the population will contract this coronavirus.

The current death rate is just under 3.5%.

If you take even 60% of the UK popluation and multiply by 3.5%, that is much more than 100,000 deaths.

That is why govts are taking the extreme stance that they are. They can't say it quite so plainly, as they are attempting to forestall panic as long as possible in order to reduce the overall societal impact this will have.

Do the maths. The numbers explain all.

"Children aren't super spreaders"
60 schools were shut across the NE in Nov due to a virus

A particular group can be superspreaders for one disease, but that does not mean they will be for a different one.

I'm also not convinced that the outbreaks described in the BBC link were dependent on superspreading (individuals infecting far more others than the typical spread pattern). It sounds pretty typical of noro - which is very infectious and goes through hotels, cruise ship s, care homes etc just as fast

Can you explain what a superspreader is mrsnoah

It doesn't have a very clear definition, but it's based on the observation that, in many epidemics, some patients seem to infect more people than others. This seems to be partly due to environmental conditions (e.g. crowded environment) and is thought to be partly due to genetic differences. I am not aware of anyone identifying the genes responsible yet, though I'm not claiming to be an expert. It's probably also due to epigenetics- which genes are working at any given time (genes are like tiny engines that can be switched on and off).

A good working definition is "someone who infects significantly more people than average for that particular disease".

The current death rate is just under 3.5%

No, the death rate is about 0.68 (7 patients per thousand) in infected patients as a whole. The death rate is, as we would expect in any disease, higher in people unwell enough to need hospitalisation.

Do the maths. The numbers explain all

Only if you have the right numbers. Otherwise it's garbage in, garbage out.

But the spread of covid is almost certainly down tp some superspreaders, I assume.

Thanks for the definition.

From The Times today:
"Exam boards are drawing up plans to delay GCSE's and "A" Levels amid predictions the Coronavirus will be at its height as the exam season starts, forcing the closure of schools"
Most exams start end of April / May so I would think they will close after Easter.
They will be taking a decision probably this week on the exams.

Sorry, where did we get children not being able to spread the virus and not being superspreaders from? I'm doing my very best here to back up every little fact with evidence from research. They weren't superspreaders in China, because they were not at school and in Hubei province at least they were restricted to their own house. Pretty hard to be a superspreader in those circumstances. Also pretty hard to be the one bringing infection into the home, if you are never leaving it.

But if anyone has any evidence of children in other situations failing to be vectors of transmission, please do show it to me. I will be very relieved to see it.

Just throwing in my experience from living in the UAE where we have had our Easter break brought forward by 3 weeks and then will have another 2 weeks off to homeschool.

So, the schools are shut this week. All leave for teachers has been cancelled, so they are working for the next 2 weeks to devise home education programmes for each class. We were sent log in details for an app for this last week.

Home schooling officially starts 2 weeks from today.

In the meantime, we are being “strongly discouraged” from undertaking unnecessary travel, and although this doesn’t mean anything in practice, it has put many off their travel plans (and the airlines are being generous in their refund/change fee policies).

We are still going out a little bit, but everywhere is much quieter. Most of us are avoiding soft plays. The beaches are very busy! The parks are fairly busy (because they are sterilised both by the sun and by armies of cleaners) but not as busy as usual.

Supermarkets are still fairly busy, but they all have staff on hand to disinfect both the trolleys and your hands as you enter the store and are given a trolley (I suspect this is a ministry directive).

There is alcoholic hand gel literally EVERYWHERE (I guess we are lucky as we have factories here that make it) with dispensers having been installed in shops, in shopping malls, in cafes and in leisure facilities.

All the schools and nurseries are being deep cleaned during the holiday (I saw this in action today as I walked past my son’s nursery).

My husband’s company has facilitated home working and all people with kids are being allowed to WFH during the school closures. (I am a SAHM anyway though).

His office has cancelled all meetings and all business travel.

Anyone travelling into the country from parts of Europe or S Korea or China or Thailand or Iran (plus some others....I think America now) is subject to possible measures for 14 day home quarantine (albeit voluntary) but this only applies if (a) your company demands it, which my husband’s does, or (b) you work or have kids at a school.

I think that’s everything. I thought you guys back home might like to hear about what a school shutdown looks like in practice.

That sounds so comprehensive Feesh and good

That kind of all round approach us what would make school closure more feasible. Although it doesn’t help people who don’t get paid and can’t get childcare.

The death rate seems to vary drastically though, according to country and person. W.h.o. are quoting around 3%, Italy are seeing nearly 4%, South Korea much less than 1%. Chris Witty is saying 1% for the UK. What is the difference in these countries? Is it smoking, pollution age, different strains? Or good medical care? The medical care in both Italy and Korea is better than that of the UK. So where will the UK fit in?
Less smokers, but more diabetes and heart disease? Older population and a shortage of hospital beds & ICU beds?

My children won't be in a park and I won't have to work with them in a park either.