Coronavirus - sick and tired of the hysterical scaremongering

[Ashtower]

I work in an office and I've overheard a number of people blowing the outbreak all out of proportion. One colleague has ordered facemasks off Amazon - we're in SE England ffs. I wish people would educate themselves (from reputable sources) and stop winding everyone up.

Of course, a healthy amount of caution is important but it's made me aware of how mass hysteria ie witch trials occurred in the past. Just takes one ignorant person with a massive mouth (yes I'm talking about you Sue in budgeting).

Marginal,

Apologies, you are righ (I was half asleep in bed), although the CFR and 30% is optimistic if medical systems break down and outside 1st World countries.

Having said that, maybe Boris’s first strategy was right. The young cannot lose their youth and be impoverished for decades merely to allow the (mainly) over 70s to live decades more.

We used to accept the above as the norm and then we achieved the luxury of being able to treat all and prolong life long after its natural term.

It sounds brutal but I am not sure the magic bullet vaccine will come quickly, if at all, and depressions also cost millions of lives. I doubt most 1st World countries will have an aid budget after this, we will need every penny to rebuild.

Who's denying this?

Cummings for a start.

Seriously I have friends raving about what a great job BJ is doing, he’s doing the best he can, really cares about us, etc. When I point out we should be on lock down they witter on about the economy and how he has to balance that. I point out people will die and they say hopefully it won’t be that bad. Wtf.

COVID-19 or Hayfever
I am sneezing and have a constant running nose. My nose is raw from blowing it and my hands are hurting from constant cleaning the kitchen and washing them rigorously
I haven't got it have I? It's day 6 of social distancing.

Having said that, maybe Boris’s first strategy was right. The young cannot lose their youth and be impoverished for decades merely to allow the (mainly) over 70s to live decades more.

Well, yes. I realise this is an unpopular view but how many person years and quality of life gradients are we to trade for extending the lives of the elderly?

If I were in Boris's shoes I would agree to a certain pre-determined period of lock-down, probably 2 weeks, and reverse engineer every decision from what I could accomplish during this time and accept that as the county's best effort.

If you consider the implications of pausing the world for 2 weeks, I think that is sufficient.

Who's denying this?

Cummings for a start.

----

Who else? There was a press conference where they said they were relying upon herd immunity. Hard to deny after the fact.

www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate

Nobel laureate Michael Levitt, just about the only person to have got it right so far, says how it will peak and regress.

@Monty27

Please be right Michael levitt

Marginal,

My personal choice would be a preannounced and determined 3-6 months of lockdown with full focus on building up hospital capacity and research. I suspect we would know a lot by then about potential vaccines and treatment protocols.

At that point you need to make a rational decision based on all the factors, which probably means taking our chances (and I am distinctly middle aged now, so not entirely risk free personally).

We cannot stop the world for what would have been considered a mild illness just 60-70 years ago.

When I point out we should be on lock down they witter on about the economy and how he has to balance that. I point out people will die and they say hopefully it won’t be that bad. Wtf.

You do realise that the impending economic depression will cause death too?

My personal choice would be a preannounced and determined 3-6 months of lockdown with full focus on building up hospital capacity and research. I suspect we would know a lot by then about potential vaccines and treatment protocols.

It's a judgement, obviously, but a 6 month lock-down is deprivation of some 48 million person lives and a sacrifice too great IMO.

I have to say it’s a thought I have had several times. The implication for the mental health of teens and children is huge. They are losing so much.

I think it’s because we cannot have a situation whereby thousands are dying gasping for air in the streets which is what it would come down to.

But we all live far too long as it is anyway, and I say that as someone with parents in their 70s. My dad agrees and is only staying to help the NHS.

@Monty27 No you havent got it, those are not the right symptoms at all. Did you have a high fever? You have a cold. Roll up plugs of tissue and stick them up your nose. It can really help to stop your nose streaming though admitedly you look pretty silly.

You do realise that the impending economic depression will cause death too?

You do realise that potentially having hundreds of thousands of people dying will cause an economic depression?

The economy is fucked either way. But we can choose not to take hundreds of thousands of people out with it. Easier to build it back up without a load of dead peope?

Some people shouldn't be allowed to post.

People in the South East have died.

Stop being stupid.

lol this is split down the line like brexit. Almost same %age

Marginal,

It is a judgment and 3 months may be better. However we really don’t want people dying entirely untreated. Being locked down is not really like dying, especially if you know time is limited, so your calculation of person lives is not quite right. Watching movies, WFH or reading a book are not totally awful! It is the limitless nature that is depressing.

Viva,

Having hundreds of thousands (and I suspect that number is way too high anyway) of mainly economically inactive people dying would actually be an economic stimulus. This is a fact, not a recommendation, so please don’t attack me for stating it.

The interesting link above to the Nobel prize winning chemist puts it interestingly, being in contact with Covid 19 roughly doubled your chance of dying in the next two months so, if you start with a low base, you stay low but if you may well die anyway, it makes it really quite likely.

Don’t forget, this would not be ‘throwing granny under a bus’. The probable CFR even for the over 80s is maybe 2-5% (Nadine Dorries’s 82 year old mother coughed for a couple of days and was fine).

Do the over 80s really want to not see their families and enjoy one of their last springs and summers to avoid this risk? Maybe someone should ask them.

Larrygrylls
The problem with your let the virus run its course plan is that the more of it there is around there more likely it will be catastrophic should it mutate.
Also its morally wrong.

I am sneezing and have a constant running nose. My nose is raw from blowing it and my hands are hurting from constant cleaning the kitchen and washing them rigorously

No that sounds like a cold.

The virus will mutate, which is normal, and it will also lose steam, and a vaccine will become available in due course.

Serin,

Mutation is an interesting one. Apparently it is a really long RNA chain (I am scientific but not biological, so I am repeating what I have been told, here) so, if it randomly mutates, it is unlikely to be effective. It is, thus, quite stable.

As for the moral argument, that is highly debatable and I have posted some reasons why it may be morally right. However, it is a balancing of rights and liberties taken away from people versus shortening some people’s lives. Lives do not have infinite value, otherwise we would surrender in every war. Sometimes, we have to sacrifice lives to preserve society (which ultimately also means different lives).

Sorry wrong thread. I was using the new app. Badly

Here is the thing
The old 1% death rate... if true, are presumably from patients who were put on ventilators but still did not survive.
If 20% become critical, and end up in hospital but there aren’t enough ventilators to go around then the death rate will be much higher.

Is this what is affecting the numbers in Italy? Just too many patients and they can’t all be treated?

I heard an NHS doctor on the radio saying that there will come a point where they have 8 people who all need emergency care and a ventilator to survive, but they’ll only be able to treat one of them. How on earth do you choose??

SunshineCake: try checking the dates on the first batch of posts on this thread before accusing others of being stupid.

It's nothing like swine flu or any other flu. To those we have a small amount of immunity.

To this we have no natural immunity whatsoever.