But what is it in the guardian article people don’t agree with?
Lets have an considered discussion about its contents without saying - well it’s the guardian so I’m not going to engage.
The research was also done in conjunction with a Hebrew paper local call. Here’s some translation of the link:
https://www.mekomit.co.il/חשיפה-מנתוני-אמן-עולה-כי-83-מההרוגים-בעז/
Several intelligence sources said that the database in Military Intelligence is considered the authoritative and only source in the military regarding the number of fighters killed. Each soldier on the list marked as killed is assigned a specific intelligence report justifying the determination, usually based on Hamas and Jihad documents seized by the military. An official military source confirmed that this database is the only reliable list the military holds of Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives killed in Gaza, and that other data released by military and political sources was based on "estimates." The source did not dispute the accuracy of the data held by Sicha Mekomit.
As of mid-May 2025, Military Intelligence’s database recorded 7,330 Hamas and Islamic Jihad members killed, and another 1,570 as "likely" killed, totaling 8,900 military operatives. If we compare this total to the casualty figures from the Palestinian Ministry of Health, which stood at 52,928 deaths at that time, we find that the percentage of fighters among the dead is 17%, while 83% are civilians. If we exclude the "likely" deaths, the percentage of fighters among the dead would be around 14%, and the percentage of civilians about 86%.
The figure of more than 80% civilians among all casualties is also consistent with a check conducted by The Hottest Place in Hell regarding the casualty figures from March to May of this year. The military told the site that it had killed 500 fighters since March, while the Palestinian Ministry of Health reported 2,780 deaths in Gaza during the same period.
Mohammed Shahada, a guest researcher on human rights at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a native of Gaza, told Sicha Mekomit that in December 2024, he heard from Hamas and Jihad representatives that 6,500 people had been killed from both the military and political arms combined. Given that the Military Intelligence database is from May 2025, about six months later, it seems the figures Shahada heard are close to those held by the military.
"The percentage of civilian deaths in Gaza is exceptionally high, especially because it has lasted for so long," said Teresa Peterson from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, which has been tracking civilian casualties worldwide since 1989. According to her, higher civilian percentages have been recorded in the Rwandan Genocide or in isolated events like the Srebrenica massacre (though not in the entire Bosnian War) and the Russian siege of Mariupol in 2022.
In “Israel Hayom,” it was reported that during a discussion in the Foreign and Defense Committee in April 2024, committee members doubted the reliability of the numbers the military presented regarding Hamas and Jihad militants it had killed. Some committee members checked the figures within the military's internal systems and discovered that the number in those records was significantly lower than the figure the military presented. According to the report, the military artificially inflated the number of Hamas casualties "to create a 2:1 ratio" between civilians and military operatives.
In an attempt to argue that the percentage of fighters among Palestinian casualties is high, some relied on a statistic quoted in Epstein's research—about 44% of those killed in the Ministry of Health lists in Gaza are men aged 18 to 59, meaning more than their proportion of the population. However, research from the Oslo Peace Studies Center showed that in wars, men have a higher likelihood of being killed than women, even if they do not carry weapons. An example of this was seen in recent months, when nearly 2,000 Palestinians were killed around the GHF centers in Gaza, according to Gaza's Ministry of Health. Videos filmed at these sites clearly show that most of the casualties at the distribution centers were unarmed young men who went to get food for their families.
Throughout the war, estimates regarding the number of casualties publicly presented by Israeli officials fluctuated, raising significant doubts about their reliability, as described by Idan Lando on his blog. Lando quotes a security official who, a month after the start of the war, stated that there were 20,000 deaths in Gaza, most of them military operatives—meaning over 10,000 killed from the military factions. However, by the end of 2023, the number suddenly dropped: the Southern Command Chief then estimated that the military had killed 7,864 military operatives.
The mysterious fluctuations in the numbers continued: at the end of February 2024, an IDF spokesperson claimed that more than 13,000 Hamas operatives had been killed, but a week later, the military spoke of 12,000 Hamas casualties, meaning that 1,000 operatives "came back to life." In August 2024, the military reported 17,000 Hamas casualties, but by October 2024, two months later, the number shrank to 14,000 operatives killed "with high probability."
The ratio between armed and unarmed casualties in global conflicts is difficult to calculate due to the lack of precise data and the challenge of defining who counts as a military operative. However, a rate of more than 80% civilian casualties, as indicated by the data we have, is extremely high. In the war against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, the proportion of civilians among total casualties ranged from 10% to 28%. In the battle to liberate Mosul from ISIS, which is often compared to the war in Gaza, the percentage of civilians among casualties ranged from 42% to 60%. In the U.S. war in Afghanistan, estimates suggest that 28% of casualties were civilians. In the Bosnian Civil War, which killed about 97,000 people and is considered one of the deadliest conflicts since World War II, research conducted by an independent institute in Sarajevo found that the proportion of civilians among the casualties stood at about 40%.
The discussion about the "correct" ratio between civilian casualties and casualties from military factions is problematic because it is often used as a justification for targeted harm to civilians. For this reason, international law examines the principle of "proportionality" in each case separately. In November 2023, an investigation by Sicha Mekomit revealed that the military authorized the killing of over one hundred Palestinians to target a senior Hamas commander. Regardless of the overall ratio between "civilians" and "combatants," it does not justify harming civilians on such a large scale as indicated by these cases and many others.
The intention for indiscriminate killing is clearly reflected in the words of Aaron Haliva, the head of Military Intelligence at the beginning of the war, who said in a recording published on News 12: "The fact that there are already 50,000 dead in Gaza is necessary and required for future generations… For every person who died on October 7, 50 Palestinians should die. It doesn't matter now if they are children… they need a regular Nakba to feel the price." Sharon Halevi, the wife of the Chief of Staff Herzl Halevi, recently shared that her husband left their home on the morning of October 7, "long before seven in the morning," kissed the mezuzah, and said to her: "Gaza will be destroyed."
It is clear that only after the end of the war will it be possible to independently, and not under constant shelling, examine the number of casualties and their identities, and thus arrive at more accurate data regarding the percentage of civilians among the dead. But the database we are publishing here indicates that the true percentage of civilians among the casualties in Gaza is much higher than the picture Israel has presented to itself and the world.