Could Israel have got the hostages back by negotiation rather than war ?

[mouthpipette]

Was the question I put to AI.

Fascinating reading. Sources given are NYT and Al Jazheera amongst others and it includes many facts and examples. Parts of it are waffle, bits of it don't make sense and there are probably omissions, but there are enough salient points to think negotiation (though fraught with difficulty) could have been a viable option.

We can only speculate but I do think its noteworthy that Netanyahu has made clear that while rescuing the hostages is "an important goal", the "supreme goal" is defeating Hamas.

Most of the families of the hostages are highly critical of Netanyahu and have led protests against him, because they do not believe he is adequately trying to secure the hostages' return.

Personally, I do not believe that Netanyahu wants the war to stop currently and is calculating that it is better for his own ends that at least some living hostages remain captive. I don't think this is an uncommon view among Isrealis, hence the protests.

In November 2023, Hamas offered a deal dubbed as "everyone for everyone" or "all for all" — a release of all hostages being held in Gaza in exchange for Israel releasing thousands of Palestinians in Israeli prisons.[105][26] Some Israeli families have spoken in support for such a deal.[106][107]

This from Wiki.

Sadly we are seeing what happens when people who, by our standards, are extremists (Israeli government) meet head on with people who, by everybody's standards, are extremists (Hamas)

I agree. Also to add in the the US who by all accounts are a bunch of nutters and Qatar.

There is nobody at this table talking words of peace, words of unity. It’s never been present. I feel like the situation has been very hopeless from the start.

Some in the Israeli government, and some opposition MPs, are no less extreme than Hamas.

I'm also far from convinced that isn't true of the current government generally, they're just somewhat more constrained by international law.

Israel withdrew totally from Gaza in 2005 and the IDF dragged the Jewish community kicking and screaming from their homes to facilitate that, and also dug up the graves of the Jews buried there to move their remains out of Gaza, for PEACE.

Palestinians immediately then destroyed greenhouses left for them to continue the $ billion flower and fruit industry set up by the Israelis.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/wbna9331863

In fact today was the 20th anniversary of Israeli disengagement from the Gaza Strip -

https://x.com/JeremyKamali/status/1952134057183137928

That Jewish guy who was forcible removed in the video said what would happen in the future and it seems he was right.

Why do you think so many hostages were taken if Hamas planned to release them all?

It was obvious they’d release some in dribs and drabs for exchange for prisoners to keep up negotiations, murder some in captivity as they did the Bibas family and Oded Lifshitz, but they were always going to hold on to the last of them so they could make impossible demands for a ‘win’.

Gal Shalit was held for 5 years and Israel had to release over 1000 prisoners for him including Yahya Sinwar who was given 4 life sentences for murdering 4 Palestinians suspected of being collaborators, and then went on to lead the Oct 7th attack after his life was saved by Israel while in prison due to a brain tumour!

I can totally get why Israel doesn’t want to release more like Sinwar, they’ve already released murderers and terrorists since Oct 7th, and also I get why the hostage families don’t give a shit about that, they just want them back as I would if I was in their shoes.

Hamas has said they will execute the hostages if any rescue mission is attempted, like they did to 6 of them last September, but it looks like that may be the only option, hopefully without that happening again, and they are not going to be held in one place which makes it even more challenging.

Shame that the uninvolved civilians haven’t given any intel to the IDF to help get them out, even with the offer for a reward and safe passage out of Gaza by Netanyahu.

Especially as they must have starving families.

Hamas should never have seized those innocent hostages in the first place. Once they were taken Hamas were never going to return them. Israel released about 100 Palestinians to get back 1 hostage and still Hamas would not release the hostages. They are evil to the core.

Two quoted sources, I wouldn't lend credibility to. You can't negotiate with terrorists. I could use a similar example but it will get heated so I won't bother.

I think yes. The previous prime minister thought so.

You can't negotiate with terrorists. @Dangermoo

Why not ?
Israel has already done so and in the process got about 150 of the hostages back alive. Meanwhile the IDF have rescued 8 and killed 3. So negotiation seems to be far more effective than military action with regard to hostage release.

Just out of interest, why do you not give credibility to The Guardian? I admit it's not perfect, but on the whole it's pretty accurate.

I assume Israel is acting with future hostages Hamas may take in mind too.

I feel they've been clear that getting hostages back isnt their main priority, but rather destroying Hamas, so that October 7 can never happen again.

I cannot imagine the pain of hostage families knowing this. It feels inhuman, I'd argue its also practical.

I can’t imagine the absolute nightmare of the hostage families. After seeing images of Evyatar and Rom, which will be reflective of the state of the other living hostages as well, and desperately wanting them out so they can be saved. They will know Hamas has said they will execute them if a rescue mission is attempted.

I have sons of a similar age and they’re still kids to me, I would be absolutely deranged.

Imagine them going through all the torture and horrors they have been through over the last 22 months which would already seem like a lifetime in the conditions they are in, trying to keep themselves alive knowing they could be murdered at any minute and they know what their captors are capable of, only to be murdered at the last minute.

The families of the dead hostages still being held as well. Knowing those monsters have done god knows what to their bodies, desecrated and defiled, as a bereaved mother myself. knowing that at even in death, you just want them safe in a weird kind of way and having buried them with dignity after doing all you can take care of them in death, have them close by.

People on the outside can rationally calculate and weigh up the odds, that a much greater amount of soldiers and civilians will die if rescue attempts are made. They are likely held separately so one successful release will damn the remaining hostages to a certain death, and also that more Israelis AND Palestinians will be killed in future if the Israeli government cede to Hamas’ demands so it’s an impossible decision to make and one you’d have to have nerves of steel to have to make.

Some people have suggested flooding the remaining tunnels which haven’t been cleared yet and where Hamas/PIJ might still be hiding with a knock out agent. They must have food/water entry points to feed themselves as they won’t be going without food and water. They had fresh fruit in the video they posted! That will take a fully coordinated response at multiple locations and they’d have to do it extremely quickly, and would need multiple special forces groups to be involved and a complete blackout of energy and communications.

Probably not possible but they have to try something!

It must be a living nightmare. My brain turns away- I can't think of it. They must feel utterly abandoned to their torture.

Yes is my answer, and sometimes negotiation is just necessary, not just for immediate gain such as hostage release, but also for long term peace - see Northern Ireland.

However Netanyahu’s priority was never getting the hostages home.

I think that it could be argued that potential future hostages are as important to protect as the current hostages.

Obviously I could never say that to anyone who has family who is a hostage. If it were one of my children being held hostage I would fight like a tiger for them to be considered the no 1 priority.

Exactly.

Yeah... the last time they negotiated with Hamas, Hamas got Yahya Sinwar back. That obviously went brilliantly.

I'm no supporter of the current Israeli gov't but I'd boil my reply down to "You don't negotiate with terrorists". Or maybe "You don't negotiate with well-financed Jihadi death cults".

I think I agree but it’s such a difficult subject.

Negotiating with terrorists isn’t working though & arguably will never work in the long term where Hamas are involved.

@ConscientiousObserver brilliant post, thank you.

I can see why, assuming it was genuinely an option, doing a hostage for prisoner swap wouldn't have worked. It would have essentially rewarded Hamas for the slaughter and hostage taking - nothing lost, and a huge amount gained in getting back thousands of their members.

It would have led to more attacks and kidnappings every time they wanted further prisoner releases.

Hamas had to be defeated. It was bigger than just getting back the hostages. It still is.

No, OP. The thought of it is ridiculous. I think we in the West have a very hard time understanding theocracy - it’s not like Western politics where compromise, persuasion etc feature. Their beliefs are absolute - they would rather let their whole population starve to death than release the hostages and end the ‘jihad’ without their demands. That’s what makes this whole thing so hard to solve.

"Israel withdrew totally from Gaza in 2005 and the IDF dragged the Jewish community kicking and screaming from their homes to facilitate that, and also dug up the graves of the Jews buried there to move their remains out of Gaza, for PEACE.
Palestinians immediately then destroyed greenhouses left for them to continue the $ billion flower and fruit industry set up by the Israelis."

Crazy wasn't it. Given the lot and then destroyed the lot. Even with the mega billions in aid over the years, where has it all gone. It didn't go into building a better society and a peaceful future for their children.

This thread is very confusing.

Broadly speaking, You don’t negotiate with terrorists because doing so rewards violence and sets a precedent that terrorism works.

If you give in to demands - ransom, prisoner swaps, political concessions - you prove to every other extremist group that hostage-taking and mass violence are effective tools. That encourages more attacks, more kidnappings, and more deaths.

Israel has had the power to win a war against Gaza for decades. It has chosen not to have one, even though multiple kidnappings, terror attacks and thousands of missiles have been fired at Israel it hasn't responded with a war because it didn't want one.

But Israel was politically split. There is fundamentally a territory on its border that is utterly committed to its destruction. In every possible sense.

Many Israelis tried very hard to make peace. There's been peace talks. The Oslo Accords. Ceasefires. Jobs - at one point before the twrror attacks there was 100k Gazans going to work in Israel every day.

Israel handed over the land, homes, greenhouses, and infrastructure and voluntarily removed every Jew from Gaza.

Israeli NGOs, like Rabbis for Human Rights and Gisha, have advocated for Gazans and helped them over and over. Israeli NGOs like Save a Child’s Heart have brought hundreds of Gazan children (and their parents) into Israel for free heart surgeries.

Every year, thousands of Gazans have been admitted into Israel for life-saving treatment - including cancer care, heart surgery, dialysis, and emergency trauma care. This has continued even during times of conflict, with special permits issued for urgent cases.

Gisha (Israeli NGO) provides legal aid to Gazans to help them travel for education, family reunification, or medical care.

Physicians for Human Rights Israel assists Gazans in getting medical permits and challenges refusals in Israeli courts.

Individual Israeli lawyers and activists have represented Gazans pro bono in petitions to the Israeli High Court of Justice over family unification, exit permits, and humanitarian access.

And israel's vast military expenditure wasn't focused on firing weapons. It wax focused on defensive weapons. State of the art systems to protect it from people firing at them. Constantly.

And ultimately it all made no difference. October 7 was what was chosen.

I was reading a hostage today explaining he was held captive by a journalist from Al Jazeera and his local doctor Father.

So israels military goal isn't just about getting hostages back- its about ensuring October 7 never happens again. That (the security of its citizens) is the primary and most important responsibility of any government.

I'm not quite sure why you feel the need to repeat those carefully chosen snippets of information ( one or two of them, accurate) as they are irrelevant to the thread.

To date, Israel has got back far more hostages through negotiation rather than through the IDF trying to rescuing them. Israel's best chance of getting them back is through negotiation.

Hostages are likely to be used as a shield on the front line, with those who hold them telling the IDF " Come closer and they will be killed". So, if Israel cares about getting them back alive, then negotiation is the answer.

As for a universal policy of not talking to blackmailers and terrorists, I think that behind the scenes that there is an awful lot of negotiation that goes on, but gets little publicity, lest it encourages others.

And whilst it's tempting to think that the elimination of Hamas will solve Israel's problems, this kind of simple thinking is just that, for simpletons. The problems in the region run far deeper than just Hamas and/or Iran.

Ignoring your genius theory that the best approach is to just let Hamas murder and kidnap people indefinitely and then “trade” for them later - why don’t you try being specific?

If you tell someone that only “one or two” of the dozen facts they just listed are true, then do us all a favour and actually say which ones you think are false.

That way, I can bring the evidence for each… which you can then completely ignore before jumping to a different point without ever admitting you were wrong.

That’s how this works, right?