Could Israel have got the hostages back by negotiation rather than war ?

[mouthpipette]

Was the question I put to AI.

Fascinating reading. Sources given are NYT and Al Jazheera amongst others and it includes many facts and examples. Parts of it are waffle, bits of it don't make sense and there are probably omissions, but there are enough salient points to think negotiation (though fraught with difficulty) could have been a viable option.

Ignoring your genius theory that the best approach is to just let Hamas murder and kidnap people indefinitely and then “trade” for them later. @Voxon

Hamas are in no position to do anything like Oct 7 and are unlikely to be able to do so for years. Hezbollah have been rendered virtually useless, Iran have been heavily knocked back and Israel even feel so bold that they have started intervening in Syria.
So this idea that they are currently under threat is a myth. Get the IDF out of Gaza, get the food in and negotiate. Fewer people get hurt. It's not that difficult.

Hamas are in no position to do anything like Oct 7 and are unlikely to be able to do so for years because there was a WAR.

Considering Netanyahu is on record saying that the hostages are not the first priority of the war, I doubt it. The truth is the hostages just aren't important enough to him because he has other goals in all this.

To me it seems that the hostages were the highest priority at the beginning of the war. Imagine if Hamas had just given them all back unharmed at the beginning- maybe then they could have gained a lot in return.

But at this point - I think Netanyahu has pretty much given up hope that he will get the remaining hostages home alive. The negotiations aren’t working so they are no longer a top priority (though obviously he can’t say that). Just my opinion.

Hamas are in no position to do anything like Oct 7 and are unlikely to be able to do so for years because there was a WAR. wrote @Voxon

Well I'm glad that you and I agree on at least one thing, that Hamas currently present little or no serious threat to Israel.
So having ascertained that Hamas have been virtually destroyed as an effective fighting force (all they are left with now is not particularly effective guerrilla tactics) why are Israel still there?
What are they defending themselves against ? All Israel need to do is withdraw, and swap hostages and this would all be ended. Simple. If Netanyahu cared one tenth as much about the hostages as he does about his own political survival, he would do so. But he doesn't, so he won't. Israel could end this today, but won't, because essentially , to Netanyahu his own skin matters more than those of thousands of Palestinians. It really isn't that difficult to see.

I usually just lurk on this board but I just wanted to thank some of the posters for adding some information I didn't know.
Personally, I doubt that anyone would feel their military goals had been achieved by just kicking the threat a few years down the road. That's not usually what militaries are going for.
As for negotiating for hostages, as @Voxon just said, but it bears repeating, if Israel empty the prisons of convicted terrorists every time Hamas grabs some Israelis off the streets, they'll basically incentivise kidnapping. It's an unfair trade anyway because the terrorists weren't kidnapped by Israel, they were found guilty of serious crime, and the Israelis weren't criminals who did anything to Hamas. Israel are trying to increase security not reward terrorism.

I would probably agree. I think he underestimated Hamas. They can not be beaten with firepower and all Netanyahu has achieved is creating the next generations of fighters, be that under the name of Hamas or as a new group that will appear, made up of aggrieved younger generations who were nothing to do with Hamas and wanting to avenge the needless slaughter of innocents.

It’s a little more nuanced than that to be fair. In many cases people imprisoned by Israel weren’t found guilty of anything.

Do you also think that maybe Hamas underestimated the harm they would do to their own people by unleashing hell on 7/10?

i think it’s likely they underestimated Israel’s ability to mount a response for multiple reasons.

from what I’ve read they expected Hezbollah at the least to join in, and possibly Iran and the Houthis too. There’s been evidence that Hezbollah had plans drawn up to invade the north in a similar fashion. A joint two prong invasion would have been crippling for Israel- the response was slow and fragmented as it was. Add in a northern invasion to the southern invasion on Oct 7th and the damage and chaos in Israel would have been incalculable- that would have certainly affected Israel’s ability to respond.

there was massive civil unrest in Israel before October 7th, I’m sure they were relying on a fractured and divided people being unable to work together.

The date was also psychologically and militarily significant- it was very close to the 50 year anniversary of the Yom Kippur war. Simchas Torah (the festival that Oct 7th was on) is part of the same group of festivals. they’d have also been aware that many soldiers would be home for the festival.

It was also led by Sinwar, himself released in a hostage exchange - he knew what price Israel would pay to get their people back, and likely calculated on being able to stop any Israeli response using the hostages.

there’s also a historical pattern of hostage taking by Hamas and massive prisoner releases in exchange- they may have been counting on that.

But ultimately, I don’t think that sinwar cared. He got his own wife out- what about protecting everyone else?!?even if he thought he could stop any response from Israel through hostage negotiations, wouldn’t you make a backup plan to protect your people?

@Twiglets1 netanyahu seems to be going hard for an all for all deal .https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-august-12-2025/

There was a brief point at the end of July where it seemed negotiations were getting somewhere, the Arab league were pressurising Hamas, and then it all fell apart.

No

Very interesting @EllaDisenchanted I did not know all that background history.

Sinwar's wife is now living in Turkey with their children and a new husband, apparently. He protected his own while making no plan for other people's wives and children.

It does really feel like Netanyahu has lost hope in reaching a ceasefire agreement. Though according to the link you posted there is still a glimmer of hope as Huckabee says that since Israel began moving toward expanding its military operations, Hamas has expressed interest in restarting negotiations. “One has to wonder, [is Hamas] really serious about ending this?”

I suspect they didn’t think it would be just Hamas against Israel. I wonder if they thought it might provoke a wider Middle East conflict drawing other countries in.

I expect they hoped it would but other countries have been too sensible to pick a fight with Israel (& the US).

I still can’t understand why Hamas didn’t surrender months ago. Is it just male egos at the end of the day?

I think so wedded to the cause that they're not scared of dying themselves or scared of any more of their people dying.
I think most on these boards ( including myself ) are so far from understanding this mindset that it does not compute. So they see Israel as the evil genocidal oppressors and don't see how Hamas can have been the architects of their own downfall.

Everyday I can't believe Hamas still haven't surrendered. I can understand ( while not agree with ) Israel continuing. But theres no reason at all for Hamas not to surrender. Their people are dying. Their homes are gone. There being threatened with occupation and all power being forcibly taken and given to those over whom they have no influence. Whats in it for them? Nothing. Apart from the cause, and the hatred.

I also cannot understand why Hamas don’t surrender for the sake of the Gazan civilians and also why there isn’t more of an outcry about their refusal to do so.

As you say, Netanyahu’s reasons for continuing do make a certain sense even to people who would far prefer to see a ceasefire. But Hamas can’t expect any better terms than the ones Israel proposed months ago so it’s just dragging out the war for no gain at all as far as I can see.

EXACTLY.

These lives are being thrown away for no reason. Utterly pointless death.

But then I think, these deaths aren't pointless to Hamas are they? They keep the cause in front of our eyes. They build hatred of Israel.

I can't think of any parallels in history. I can think of times when civilian lives have been treated with contempt, as worthless. But are Gazans worth more to Hamas in death?

Argh.

1. Yes. But the question is the price. That said it became clear quite quickly that Bibi had every intention of prolonging the war and razing Gaza. The deal that Hamas wanted initially would not have been acceptable to the Israeli public. Hamas would have given back the hostages, but gotten more in return, and after 1,200 dead, no one would have accepted a deal where Hamas did not face consequences. There's a rumour that Hamas would have given them back for less -- no prisoners, just the ability to continue their graft. But that's unconfirmed.

It's definitely true that Bibi could have made a publicly acceptable deal fairly early on however.

2. The US in 2023 wasn't run by nutters; it had serious diplomats. The ambassador to Israel was former Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, and SecState Blinken was experienced. The issue was that Joe Biden wasn't willing to be aggressive enough early enough. Then Trump took over when things started getting catastrophic, and his team is absolutely disastrous.

Britain and Ireland negotiated very successfully with terrorists in Northern Ireland

With a strong reluctance, for many years, on one side.

Ai doesn't know anything. It takes it from sources or makes it up.

Yes but peace was the end result

After many deaths, yes.

Yes I agree that the deaths aren’t pointless to Hamas as can be used for propaganda. As mentioned on another thread, most Hamas leaders either left Gaza themselves before 7/10 or made sure their wives & children got out so the ones they most cared about wouldn’t get killed.

But why don’t we get an answer on MN about what Hamas hope to achieve by allowing the war to continue for months after they could have stopped it? All along they have had the ability to return the hostages, disarm and leave Gaza.

I don't know, honestly. It starts to just look like hatred for Israel.
I used to be much more Pro Pal. Then I started wondering- but why would Israel behave like this? Are they evil, or are there reasons? And then you read a bit and start to understand?
This forum does gobsmack me every day tho. Theres another thread where a poster has said the IDF went into Al Aqsa a few days ago and starting shooting. Total lies. No taking it back. I can't understand the mindset. Anyway this'll probably be removed soon. Onwards.