What outcomes do people expect?

[HerNeighbourTotoro]

I tried to think of the times where US/the West in general got involved in anything and it was a roaring success and a win for democracy.

Iraq
Aghanistan
Libya
Syria
Vietnam

Earlier, colonies and the subsequent post colonial conflicts in Africa. Rwanda in 1994. Sudan. Countless others.

Oh, wait...

Can anyone think of a time and place where the West got involved and actually improved anything at all?
I do hope for a better outcome for Iranian people, but I am not hopefult whatever follows is going to be any good. Let's face it, attack on Iran is not about helping the people, but increasing influence and and trying to replace the regime with favourable puppet government, but this has not worked once before, why do people think it will work now?

The second world war.

more terrorist attacks

Malaysia
Korea
Oman
Falklands

Nope, the West needs to remember the shit show 20 odd years ago.
The West is not the same culturally and the Middle East should be left alone to their own devices.

WWII left the whole of Eastern Europe under the influence of Russia, if you this this was a great success and that communism that spread in the region since was something to be proud of...

Do you mean North Korea is a democratic success?

Malaysia has some interesting dynamics that again I would not exactly call successful in terms of integration of the society. What do we compare it to?

@HerNeighbourTotoro

FFS - you do know that there is North Korea and South Korea and without Western intervention it would be all be communist Korea.

Please please try and read some history before posting such comments it's tiresome to debate.

Rwanda in 1994 kind of makes the opposite point of what I think you intend; Rwandans were desperately waiting, hoping, and praying for the world to do SOMETHING, and the world did nothing. The RFP - a bunch of Rwandan refugees from a previous genocide living abroad, and their children and grandchildren - were pretty much the only ones who did anything to stop the 1994 genocide.

Interestingly, South Korean people do not love the American military presence in Korea and American army is largely vilified in the media. I wonder if you care to explain why?

Did the Falklands need saving? Or was it more about keeping British influence and keeping a naval base rather than anything else?

Im not pretending I know every in and out of history, I find it interesting than some areas only required Western intervention thanks to their resources and if they didnt have any (Palestine) they are largely ignored, but if they do (Iraq) an invasion to 'establish order' happens.

I meant that the borders of the countries that were established after WWII were largely based colonial-era demarcations and on where the West placed and them and which ignored the problems that would arise if, like in the case of Rwanda, you put tribes that dont cooperate/get on with one another. I didnt maybe explain it in the my OP.
I dont think that sadly the Western countries have interest of anyone at heart really and we either ignore problems or get involved only if there is something to gain for a few powerful who make the decisions.

So what do you think would have happened if we hadn't intervened? We would have all lived happily ever after under the Nazis?

It's really easier to say what the west got right. It's so hard keeping up with the anti west shit.

It would certainly take a lot less time.

It would for the haters and xenophobes, yes.

@HerNeighbourTotoro “Let's face it, attack on Iran is not about helping the people”

You are right about that. It’s about neutralizing Iran’s nuclear program.
Nearly mission accomplished.

Amen.

Either Trump backs down and doesn’t get the USA involved and Israel and Iran carry on firing rockets at each other but it fizzles out after a while.

or Trump gets involved, Iran is obliterated. Russia gets pissed off. Possibly other countries get pissed off. Various terrorist types get pissed off. There’s ultimately a power vacuum in Iran and some form of IS/al Quaeda take over and life gets bad for the average Iranian. Terrorist cells rev up and terror attacks against the West/usa increase. Hezbollah attack Israel more than before. Loads of attacks on any gulf states allied with the USA to hit oil exports. Resulting in big price increases. The nuclear programme in Iran is pushed back but ultimately continues.

the best way has got to be diplomacy but the USA need to offer Iran something in order to get them to agree to stop nuclear enrichment. At the moment Iran says there’s nothing on the table for them. That’s not negotiation.

Like Iraq was about WMD's?

IEAE head says there is no proof that Iran is building a nuclear weapon.
Tulsi Gabbard, Trumps national director of intelligence testified in March this year that Iran wasn't building nukes.

Oh but let's believe the regime leader trying to avoid a corruption trial and with an international arrest warrant out of them for war crimes that has repeatedly lied, including about Iraq and wmd and that taking Saddams regime out would have massive positive reverberation across the middle east. Israel have attacked 7 of its neighbours in the past few months and it's clear that they have an unhinged agenda and are massively misrepresentating the risk to Israel and Israelis of persuading such a strategy.

Russia didn’t intervene in Syria to prop uo their guy, they are not going to prop up these either.

A group of Isis/ al-qaeda ready to rise up is extremely unlikely in an increasingly secular country where the muslim are mainly shiite, sunnis are like 5%.

Hezbollah got their money to attack from Iran (and drug running)

Attacks on gulf states and western interests are likely but probably from Houthis rather than Iran itself because once you bomb american interest you will definitely get a spanking

Ofcourse Qatar can step into the breech on funding this stuff and I expect they will. In which case the other GCC countries will start stepping up massive pressure on them.

Honestly leaving the regime in place increases the likelihood of your list of fears rather than reduces it.

Thats a misreading of what they said, they said they were a short step away from producing uranium to the level required for nuclear weapons. He’s being very specific and technical.

There is no civilian use for that.

No I don’t think Russia will get involved at all. But they might make some noise/threats hoping to dissuade Trump from getting involved. But ultimately i don’t think Putin is daft enough to follow through, he has his own priorities. Russia knows what happens if they stretch themselves too thinly. I hear Putin has been ringing Trump trying to discuss diplomatic solutions, not sure if Trump took the call.

Trump has moved B.52’s nearby. They could help deliver enough ordinance on the nuclear facilities to put them out of use (though they are deep under a mountain, so maybe impossible to effectively destroy).
Then they could call it a day and let Iran lick its wounds. Let politics take its course.

For the UK not to be involved.

Was it an intervention at this stage, when Hitler was already attacking parts of Wester Europe and marched through Belgium and France, or a necessity?

One can only hope.