It’s starting to look like mutually assured suicide. Netanyahu is staking everything on the future of Israel—not as its savior, but as its nemesis. If he launches an attack on Iran while the U.S. is engaged in diplomacy, all bets are off.
As things stand, Israel will have displaced Gaza’s entire population and taken over the areas where it used to live, amid a rising tide of domestic and international criticism, hoping that Hamas will feel sufficiently pressured as to free some or all of the hostages without a declared pledge by Netanyahu to end the war. The IDF fervently wishes that this will prove the case — in no small part because of the challenge of maintaining an open-ended hold on three-quarters of the Gaza Strip, when reservists are under unprecedented strain and there are multiple challenges on other fronts.
Hamas knows all this. Gaza’s ultra-cynical terrorist masters know that Trump is impatient. That Israel is increasingly isolated — diplomatically, economically, physically (especially since the Houthis hit Ben Gurion Airport), and in global public opinion. That even Germany, that most supportive of Israel’s allies given its special, terrible history, is now openly branding Israel’s current military operations unjustifiable.
Hamas knows, too, that Israel is itself riven, over the hostage-release strategy, over the inequality of the military burden under a government perpetuating ultra-Orthodox refusal to serve, and over the coalition’s far-right calls to permanently occupy and resettle the Strip — the overt long-term goal of Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, without whose parties Netanyahu has no government.
And, of course, Hamas knows that Israel is riven over the moral implications of this phase of the conflict — the Jewish state forcing an entire populace from their homes, first pushing Gazans into deep hunger and now reluctantly struggling to supply aid.
Far from blinking, the fear is that Hamas, which cares nothing for Gazans and for the ruin it has brought down upon the Strip, is laughing.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/and-what-if-hamas-doesnt-blink/