War between Iran and Israel

[EasterIssland]

Hi
the previous thread related with Iran and Israel has been deleted because it descended into a fight between posters.

I’m creating this one to continue with the updates of this conflict.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/04/iran-ali-khamenei-hezbollah-hamas-lebanon-gaza-israel

Thanks for the new thread OP.

It's hard to know which thread to put this on but the talk is that if Israel hits Iran we could end up with a huge energy crisis.
I don't know how much the USA would be protected being a large producer of oil but it would hit the UK.
‘Very serious’: Bank of England governor warns of Middle East oil shock risk | Andrew Bailey | The Guardian

Frank Gardner comment
"The Middle East is once again on the brink of a much wider and more damaging conflict than those fires already blazing in Lebanon, Gaza and elsewhere.
Much now depends on how Israel intends to follow through on its well-publicised promise to "make Iran pay a heavy price" for its recent volley of ballistic missiles.
If Israel does hit back hard at Iran – and many are asking it not to – then the Islamic Republic has vowed to retaliate in turn, not just against Israel but also against those countries it sees as supporting it.
That could put US and British military bases at risk of attack, in the Gulf or even in Cyprus, which Iran’s long-range Ghadr-1 missiles can reach.
With hopes dimming of any imminent ceasefire in either Gaza or Lebanon, Israel appears determined to take on all enemies at once, with qualified backing from the US and Britain. Militarily, it is stronger than any of its adversaries, but wars started rarely end quickly.
Nearly one year on from Hamas’s 7 October attacks, Israeli forces are still in Gaza. Israel’s occupation of Lebanon lasted 18 years.
And a prolonged and direct conflict with Iran could have any number of unknown consequences for the region, and for the wider world."

I was just reading
Iran threatens it will hit Israeli energy, gas sites if it is attacked

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-threatens-it-will-hit-israeli-energy-gas-sites-if-it-is-attacked/

It's very worrying. US was calling on everyone to stand with Israel against Iran but now we have financial institutions warning of the potential adverse impacts amongst all the other considerations.
And the US election is having too much influence on what is a world event. They say BN will not offer any concessions that would make Biden look good as he wants Trump in.

The repercussions will be catastrophic and far reaching.

And the US election is having too much influence on what is a world event.
Yes, Biden is a lame duck president and the Democrats are unlikely to make any major policy changes on the middle east (or anything) this close to an election

decapitation of the Israeli strikes against Iran is important. I wonder if the US have maybe behind the scenes asked Israel to not retaliate and if they don't the US will aid by giving Israel enhances Iron Dome defences or other aid? Certainly fighter strikes against Iran is going to be complex and so I wonder how realistic an impactful strike against Iran would be in reality. One effect maybe a spike in oil prices and if aftereffects the global economy does the US want that?

I think One issue is that an Israeli strike won't change the Israeli regime but will make it more hostile and perhaps there will be further escalation with an unknown outcome. The nightmare scenario is that Iran finalised its plans for nuclear weapons.

Not retaliating isn’t going to change the fact that Iran and its proxies are ultimately committed to the destruction of Israel. This situation is too far gone for relations having any chance of returning to how they were pre Oct 7. What happens next is anyones guess but the fallout will undoubtedly be messy and devastating for anyone caught up in this.

Jordanian FM: Arab world willing to guarantee Israel’s security if Palestinian state established

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/jordanian-fm-arab-world-willing-to-guarantee-israels-security-if-palestinian-state-established/

I think there will be a retaliation and it needs to be seen to be done but the scale and nature are of interest. If there is a wide scale attack on oil facilities this may cause a spike in oil prices and further retaliation from Iran. If Iran targets cities in Israel and pop highly densely populated regions then the U.S. electorate will be rightly angered. Scenes of Tel Aviv being targeted will maybe cause the US electorate to go for someone hard line on Iran i.e. Trump and there will be a rallying call for the defence of Israel.

The possibility of Iran being a nuclear power will be a headache for the US and I was initially hoping the Iranian nuclear facilities could be targeted comprehensively but alas this does not seem to be the case.

Jordanian FM: Arab world willing to guarantee Israel’s security if Palestinian state established

How exactly can they do that?!

This has been concerning me for reasons around the loss of the Iran deal earlier

Also I’m pretty sure Biden said they were looking at striking the oil fields but this morning seems to have rowed back

He doesn't explain does he?

Biden letting the cat out of the bag! Of course he's rowing back now. I very much blame America for this bloody mess, and UK can take some blame too.

I very much blame Iran and its proxies for this mess, personally.

Yes I don’t see the point of ignoring this

So what is Israel meant to hit in Iran....sand?

Biden, no to nuclear sites, no to oil facilities. So where does this leave Israel in terms of impactful punitive strikes?

The Iranian troops are presumably not crowded in barracks and it may be a lot of military material if mobile will be hidden amongst the populace.

It seems Israel really is having it's hands tied behind it's back to prevent an escalatory cycle that may influence the US elections in some way. Personally finding Biden a bit weak on this.

Iran is closing its airports tonight during the night. Are they expecting anything to Happen?

Can I remind people not to repeat information on home front type groups please. For the obvious reasons.

its from the guardian

Fair enough. It's more the any more information I am getting at.
Still for the obvious reasons.

I put your comment into Google Translate 20 minutes ago.
It's still working on it.
I'll wait for Google, however, feel free to have another go at saying what you meant.

@mouthpipette wow how rude.
I was on the way back from the memorial at Hyde park so not at my most eloquent I admit.
You could just ask what I meant.
People share info on the internet and forget that people are not who they say they are.
There is lots of info being shared on 'home front' type sites about Iran.
I am asking people to be careful as this is a delicate situation.
Hopefully Google will catch up with you soon.