War between Iran and Israel

[EasterIssland]

Hi
the previous thread related with Iran and Israel has been deleted because it descended into a fight between posters.

I’m creating this one to continue with the updates of this conflict.

Here's a thought perhaps Iran is going to launch another strike?

It looks like Hizbollah might be military defeated and certainly is leaderless so Iran is trying to get vengeance?

Tehran will do all it can to avoid open conflict with Tel Aviv as it would prove existential for the Mullahs.

If Israel hits oil infrastructure, it will benefit Riyadh and Trump.

They cannot successfully target Irans nuclear facilities without US help.

I think it's pretty clear what's being anticipated.

Go on?

I think it would be foolhardy for the Israelis to strike the Iranians very hard. They have their hands full and probably need time to ensure their defences are fully sorted. I assumed some more assassinations or targeting the nuclear programme in a more mossady way. I do expect them to turn their full attention to Iran at some point if they manage to erode Hamas and Hezbollah enough to not be an immediate threat.

The Iranians are going to struggle to prove to their proxies that they are actually effective. Their lack of help to Hezbollah has probably been noted and they’ve lost a few of their own recently too. The recent attack resulted mainly in the death of that poor Palestinian man. The best they can hope for is that they don’t have to directly attack Israel again, they’ve backed themselves into a bit of a corner.

They could be clearing the air because they are about to send missiles (they didn’t bother grounding flights the other day though) or they are expecting missiles.

I think the big question will be for Saudi and OPEC if there is an oil spike will they increase production? They’ve said no to the American’s before so who knows.

How strong are the ties between Iran and China ? I know that China has, over the past decade, established trade relations and sees Iran as a supplier of oil. They also supply weapons to Iran.

Will China step in ? I seek enlightenment from brains bigger than mine.
PS. Thanks to Storm for your reply.

Wonder if it will be IRCG in Syria, no-one pays much mind to what happens in Syria. Israel have been busy blowing up stuff there. Homs is basically under Hezbollah control so there will be a lot of IRCG there too.

I think one interesting thing is to what extent Israel can act against Iran without US support. Does Israel possess the refuelling aircraft to launch an attack on scale?

I think the U.S. is highly conscious of its upcoming election and Biden does fear more uncertainty in the Middle East so I wonder if the calls for restraint may be quite loud.

@User37482

That makes sense.

I think Israel might have stretched U.S. patience a little and further escalation isn't in the U.S. interest. Strikes against Syria would make sense from a distance point of view and possibly won't force Iran into her another attack.

Saudi has spare capacity of about 3 mn bpd but demand growth is anaemic and there is significant growth in non-opec production.

Assuming the entire 1.5 mn bpd of Iranian production is taken out, the shock would prove temporary.

The bigger issue would be if the straits of Hormuz were blocked - that would be monumental.

Netanyahu knows Biden is a lame duck and would choose a Trump victory.

He also knows both US houses will not tolerate a cessation of US support.

The Jewish lobby in DC is powerful.

Thanks, thats interesting, I understand Saudi is under some financial strain as well. I guess from an economic perspective the rest of the world should be more worried about the Houthis.

China’s position on this will be interesting but I understand they stockpile massive amounts of oil reserves.

I know understand people think it’s the “Jewish Lobby” but theres a reason beyond that why Israel is an ally. Iran has attacked american interests through it’s proxies multiple times. The GCC (exclu Qatar) see Iran as a serious threat to regional stability. When you look at Hezbollah and Hamas you can increasingly understand why the Saudis and emiratis got embroiled in Yemen. The Abraham accords and the opening up of the Emirates to Israelis most likely reflect these security concerns. It would have been easier for the gulf countries not to bother given public opinion.

NW.

Its true that Riyadh has a very high cost of production to meet fiscal budget - I think as high as 100/bbl but their E&P costs are very low so they will just cut infrastructure spending etc.

China, like India, will buy from anywhere basis price but their real estate debt mess and EV penetration mean they are probably less reliant on Iranian barrels.

Agreed.

Would Russia benefit from an increase in oil price?

They are in the middle of an immense number of infrastructure projects at the moment. I can imagine it will be painful. I read $100 a barrel as well.

Thanks, very informative.

Think they are selling to china and India as well.

Their barrels are sanctioned in the US/EU and price capped, and India buys the majority of their volumes, so theoretically, no. I’m not certain they can pump more either given the impact of sanctions on their infrastructure.

Free Palestine 🕊️

Am worried for what tomorrow might bring :(

Israel has strike on Iran tonight

This.

A few weeks ago Iran launched attacks on Israel. Everyone knew Israel would respond, just not when. I imagine they feel they cannot allow Iran to attack and just do nothing since perhaps then Iran might repeat attack.

They have now responded. Iran states no significant damage.

I didn't realise that on April 13th Iran launched around 1300 missiles at Israel. Its first direct attack.
It's second direct attack on Israel was October 1st with 200 ballistic missiles.

From Al Jazerra news

Limited strikes obviously acupressure from the US for restraiǹt. Iran is going to respond though and this may or may not be symbolic in nature. I am surprised this has happened so close to the US election where a focus once again has been placed on the middle east.