Remarks on a Potential Ceasefire Deal

[NerdWhoEatsMedlar]

President Biden Delivers Remarks on the Middle East

There is a potential ceasefire on the table.
Here's hope for more negotiations and a day after plan.

(That's not to say that there aren't a million ways this deal can get derailed - but I don't think Netanyahu is trying to do so right now)

Everyone seems serious

I had written that and posted it before your analysis appeared on the thread. I very much hope that you are right, it all sounds highly plausible. Unless Netanyahu didn’t know until it was publicly announced, which doesn’t sound as likely.

Just to add I did say ‘looks’.

I think it's highly, highly unlikely Netanyahu didn't know about it. Far too risky and with the US election coming up Biden couldn't risk being rebuffed by Netanyahu on this one the same way as Netanyahu rebuffed Hamas's acceptance of the mediator's proposal.

The remarks of Netanyahu's far right coalition partners are now thundering in: they are completely panning the deal and will break up the government if this deal goes ahead. But we know he has the votes for the deal including support from outside his coalition, and it's possible that he is taking a calculated political risk. In the last week he did better in the polls than he has at any time since before Oct 7th. Has he finally decided to cut free of Ben Gvir and Smotrich?

I am keeping an open mind and hoping all the pieces fall into the right places for a
ceasefire, and in time, some semblance of justice for all those who have suffered.

‘Among those addressing demonstrators on Begin Street in Tel Aviv is Einav Zangauker, mother of hostage Matan Zangauker. Together with relatives families of several other hostages, she warned earlier this evening that Netanyahu might torpedo the possible deal — referring to an Israeli proposal publicly detailed last night by US President Joe Biden. “[Biden] spoke because he knows that Netanyahu may torpedo this deal as well,” she said. “Biden wanted the public to know what was really on the table.”’

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/anti-government-protesters-flood-the-streets-of-tel-aviv-in-what-organizers-claim-is-largest-protest-since-oct-7/

@israelilefty Thank you for your insights. Now Netanyahu's apparent stance makes more sense.

Reaction from Ben Gvir and Smotrich is as expected. Wouldn't have expected any less.
Netanyahu belongs in the Hague. Hopefully he will get there one day.

Ben Gvir and Smotrich plus the far right exit left with a fit of the vapours. Yair Lapid sweeps in and saves Netanyahu with a new coalition. Ceasefire, hostage return, next election a more moderate government. Soft regime change.

Lapid won't join a coalition with Netanyahu. His party's entire point is anti-Netanyahu and anti-his religious coalition partners. But he will offer a safety net to Netanyahu to vote for the ceasefire deal even if parts of his government refuse to do so.

The issue with regime change is that unless the government falls during the next 2-3 weeks we will be stuck with the current coalition until 2025 because the Knesset will be on summer break then there has to be a 3-month lead time from dissolution of the government to elections. All the various protest organizations have already started ramping up the pressure. It's been clear from every poll since way before Oct 7 that the government would be replaced if elections were held, but that doesn't make any practical difference until one of the coalition partners decides to quit.

Thank you 🙏

Thanks @israelilefty, totally agree about the timing.

A rational feed from Israel is much appreciated.

So this suggests that Israel had 'agreed' to the Biden deal - tho' with so many caveats

An aide to prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed on Sunday that Israel had accepted a framework deal for winding down the Gaza war now being advanced by US president Joe Biden, though he described it as flawed and in need of much more work.

In an interview with The Sunday Times, Ophir Falk, chief foreign policy advisor to Netanyahu, said Biden’s proposal was “a deal we agreed to … it’s not a good deal but we dearly want the hostages released, all of them”.

“There are a lot of details to be worked out,” he said, adding that Israeli conditions, including “the release of the hostages and the destruction of Hamas as a genocidal terrorist organisation” have not changed.

After Trump was charged Biden talked about how it showed nobody was above the law.

But he is also publicly supporting Netanyanhu who the ICC are seeking to issue an arrest warrant for, and in the process making himself complicit.

I think Biden needs to get this wrapped up ASAP, which means Netanyanhu is probably under increasing pressure from US.

As I’ve said before, I think we (the West) need to get better at choosing better leaders. What a choice the people in US have to make!

Latest from US

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said on Sunday that if Hamas agrees to the deal to end the Gaza war, the US expects Israel to also accept the plan.

“This was an Israeli proposal. We have every expectation that if Hamas agrees to the proposal … then Israel would say yes,” Kirby said in an interview with ABC News’ This Week program.

LIVE: State Department briefing with Matthew Miller

In todays interview president Biden says there is every reason for people to believe that Netanyahu is dragging out the war for political reasons

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/biden-people-have-every-reason-to-believe-netanyahu-prolonging-war-due-to-politics/

Also note when asked if Israel has committed war crimes in Gaza, he doesn't answer 'no' but rather 'it's uncertain'

Is the ceasefire deal off? Was it just orchestrated for Biden to look good to Democrats? Please no 😭😭😭😭😭

Yes it was a cynical ploy by Biden and his team. This was the status yesterday: https://x.com/ejmalrai/status/1797609273414881745
and Hamas have rejected it earlier today as Netanyahu refused a permanent ceasefire.

Though it might be moot as after a meeting today, the Israeli War Cabinet appears to have greenlit an invasion/war with Lebanon aka Hezbollah and the IDF do not have the capacity to fight on 2 fronts.

Where does it say Hamas have rejected it? That would be so stupid!! Why would you reject it when it was forcing Netanyahu into a tight spot! Be better to accept it and release some hostages early as sign of good will, highlight how much of an issue he is!

Jesus do you guys follow anyone on twitter who doesn't love Hamas?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/04/pressure-grows-on-benjamin-netanyahu-to-back-gaza-ceasefire-plan

Netanyahu is reported to have called the proposed deal a "non-starter" and to be reassuring his far-right colleagues that the war will continue.