Remarks on a Potential Ceasefire Deal

[NerdWhoEatsMedlar]

President Biden Delivers Remarks on the Middle East

There is a potential ceasefire on the table.
Here's hope for more negotiations and a day after plan.

There are some subtle differences in wording which could be loopholes to get around some expectations. Things like 'withdrawal from populated areas'... what's a populated area, how's that defined? The wording around the 'permanent' bit has scope for some creativity too. There also looks to be an important change to the hostage release arrangements whereby remains of deceased people cannot be substituted in for a living person (at least that's what it looks like to me...).I hope they accept it and that it can lead to a permanent ceasefire.

Perhaps Biden has finally pulled the plug on sending funds / arms to Isreal? Or at least threatening to if they don't accept this plan?

Please God let all sides agree this deal! Too many lives have been lost.

I don't think we are the only ones thinking it's not clear who exactly the proposal is from.

This is a snippet from Sky news analysis:

If Joe Biden's statement tonight was coordinated with the Israeli government, it's unclear who with.
One source close to the Israeli prime minister told me the US president had "all but killed a deal", while another said that the two leaders hadn't spoken before the president's announcement.
So what's happening then?
I think Washington has run out of patience with Benjamin Netanyahu.

Yes agree, Sky News definitely questioning who this ceasefire has been agreed with... (nobody really it seems)

It's a bit like a parent desperately shouting 'enough!' while the kids keep on fighting, only this is much, much more serious.

Breaking: Netanyahu's office responds to Biden's ceasefire proposal.

'Israel to continue the war'

x.com/ShaykhSulaiman/status/1796670340325638474

Is it at all certain Netanyahu will agree to a ceasefire? Or that if Netanyahu’s idea of a ceasefire is just an interval before further attacks, Hamas will agree?

These are excerpts from the Guardian,
my bolding,

Hamas issued a statement late on Friday night, saying it received Biden’s proposals “positively”.

It was unclear how enthusiastically Netanyahu had embraced the peace proposal. Biden made his remarks on the Jewish shabbat, when most Israeli politicians were offline. The prime minister’s office issued an ambiguous statement after Biden spoke, confirming Netanyahu had authorised a negotiating team to present a plan to return hostages, but insisting that Israel would keep fighting.

“The government of Israel is united in its desire to return the hostages as soon as possible and is working to achieve this goal,” the statement said. “The prime minister authorised the negotiating team to present a proposal to that end, which would also enable Israel to continue the war until all its objectives are achieved, including the destruction of Hamas’s military and governing capabilities.

and,

The statement issued by Netanyahu’s office insisted Israel would keep fighting until the country’s aims are achieved, including “eliminating Hamas military and governance abilities”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/31/biden-hamas-israel-gaza-ceasefire-plan

https://x.com/David_Cameron
With a new hostage agreement on the table, Hamas must accept this deal so we can see a stop in the fighting, the hostages released and returned to their families and a flood of humanitarian aid into Gaza.

*As we’ve long argued a stop in the fighting can be turned into a permanent peace if we are all prepared to take the right steps. Let’s seize this moment and bring this conflict to an end.^
7:42 pm · 31 May 2024

But how can the circle be squared?

From the Guardian (my bolding),

Hamas says it responds 'positively' to plan for Gaza ceasefire

^As we mentioned in the opening summary, the US president, Joe Biden, has urged Hamas to accept a new peace deal he said Israel has put on the table.
The deal offered a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in return for the release of all hostages and the long-term reconstruction of the devastated enclave.^

In reaction, Hamas, the Palestinian militant group, issued a statement on Friday evening, saying it “considers positively” Biden’s speech regarding “a permanent ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, reconstruction and the exchange of prisoners”. ………….

But the report ends saying,

^Although the terms of the new deal were set out by Biden, he repeatedly described it as an Israeli proposal.
However, he made clear he was aware there would be considerable resistance to it from the Israeli right, including the hard-right members of the governing coalition*.

A statement issued by Benjamin Netanyahu’s office insisted Israel would keep fighting until the country’s aims are achieved, including “eliminating Hamas military and governance abilities”.
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jun/01/israel-gaza-war-live-netanhayu-biden-hamas-ceasefire-plan-rafah-aid-middle-east

Isn't there a carrot in this 'new' ceasefire agreement that Israel benefits from normalisation of relations with Saudia Arabia?

Could be embarrassing for Biden saying this is an Israeli deal when Netanyahu hasn't agreed. Why did Biden propose this as an Israeli deal without Netanyahu agreeing prior to a press conference?

Maybe it is just attempting to put pressure on both parties or some political manoeuvring by the US in an election to placate Democratic youth?

I think the noises coming out of Israel about the war continuing for the rest of the year has raised alarm bells and the diplomacy is going to be more focussed.

Just in case anyone isn't clear

Netanyahu insists on Hamas’ 'destruction' as part of plan to end war in Gaza

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has insisted on Hamas’s destruction and said Israel’s conditions for ending the war in Gaza remain unchanged.

So it sounds then as if I might as well have proposed the ceasefire and said 'here it is, the end to the war' - if Israel haven't agreed it then it ain't gonna happen, sadly.

I saw that aswell.
I think it's slightly suspicious that Biden has called it the 'Israeli deal' when Netanyahu himself doesn't seem fully on board and is issuing statements that contradict one of the terms of the deal. He is saying there won't be a full ceasefire until they eliminate Hamas completely (which could take years)
The deal Biden has put forward stipulates that during phase 1 the negotiations will continue to implement a full ceasefire.

It's only an 'Israeli' deal inasmuch as it appeals to other parts of the Israeli government, other non-right wing voters in Israel - and obviously the Hostage families

Israel's opposition leader urges Netanyahu to accept ceasefire proposal

“The Israeli government cannot ignore President Biden’s significant speech. There is a deal on the table and it needs to be done,” Yair Lapid wrote in a post on X.

“I remind Netanyahu that he has a security network from us for the hostage deal if Ben-Gvir and Smotrich leave the government.”

It really does not seem to be anything Netanyahu agrees with in practice.

If he needs the total destruction of Hamas in advance of agreeing, a long time could go past before he’ll be agreeing to anything.

Which is nonsense anyway, because if Hamas had a totally been destroyed, there would no longer be need for agreement with them - they would not be there to agree with.

Jam tomorrow, but no jam today.

Israel’s conditions for ending the war have not changed: the destruction of Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel.

Under the proposal, Israel will continue to insist these conditions are met before a permanent ceasefire is put in place. The notion that Israel will agree to a permanent ceasefire before these conditions are fulfilled is a non-starter.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jun/01/israel-gaza-war-live-netanhayu-biden-hamas-ceasefire-plan-rafah-aid-middle-east

The terrorist ba***s should let all hostages go free right now.

I don't think anyone would disagree with that. The issue is that they aren't going to, not without something in exchange. Hopefully a deal involving a ceasefire and humanitarian aid can be successful and get everyone home.

Last time hostages were set free / escaped without a ceasefire, it did not go well.

A ceasefire needs to be in place for a safe hostage release.

Biden did say "Israel has offered..." not "Netanyahu has offered..."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c888p5p2zvxo

Netanyahu rejecting the "Israeli deal". Which Hamas have reportedly said they'd agree to.

Yes @Scirocco Hamas was reacting positively I heard. Seems like BN is the only one in the way of an agreement. I'm sure if Hamas had said they wouldn't agree to it then BN would have agreed instead.

Some quick analysis from an Israeli here on the ground:

Israeli news (Ynet, mainstream) is reporting that Israel confirms Biden's speech and is reporting it as "Israel's proposed deal". A "senior source" is the deal will allow Israel (i.e. Netanyahu) to claim that the goals have been met. Opposition party leader Yair Lapid has confirmed that his party will vote with the coalition to pass the deal if the far right bolts the coalition.

I think that there is also significance in the timing of Biden's announcement - right at the beginning of the Jewish sabbath, which gave the deal 24 hours of press coverage and wall-to-wall international support before Netanyahu's religious right-wing coalition partners could respond – Haaretz (left wing news site) is reporting that Biden's remarks were coordinated with Israel and there were concerns about the reaction of Smotrich and Ben Gvir (far right).

I am wary of relying on personal intuition since I move in pretty left-wing, fervently anti-Netanyahu circles, but my sense is that the public is ready for this war to end. I wouldn't be swayed by Netanyahu's bellicose speech - he is a clever strategist and he had these words ready published before the end of the Sabbath to preempt Ben Gvir and Smotrich claiming he has abandoned his principles.

It's hard to be optimistic after the last few months, but having just checked in with the news after the Jewish sabbath ended, I am allowing the slightest glimpse of optimism. Because if this doesn't happen, we are stuck in an abyss with no way out.

So now Netanyahu looks like the main blocker to the end of the war and a deal
to bring the hostages home.

Not Biden, not Hamas, and not the right wing Israeli nutters, because Netanyahu is being given a political safety net which would potentially solve that issue.

Thanks for your insight Israelilefty, we are all praying this will be the beginning of the end of hostilities and of course hostage release.

I suppose it would be easy to claim
to have accomplished a goal that is defined after an event.

I don't think Netanyahu is blocking this deal. Israel's media is reporting wall to wall, from left to far right, that this is an Israeli proposal. In addition, ministers of Netanyahu's Likud party (who have a strong track record for putting their foot in it) have clearly been instructed to keep their mouths shut and are not issuing statements. Meanwhile Netanyahu has been officially invited to address Congress, which is presumably one of the carrots he was offered in order to save face. In short, I am no insider but it looks like Netanyahu is making some efforts not to derail the deal.

As I said in my post, I would pay more attention to all of the above than to his bellicose words in his reaction, which I think should be read as a pre-empted defence against his right-wing allies.