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Conflict in the Middle East

So which party is scuppering the ceasefire?

96 replies

Itoosurvive · 02/05/2024 21:15

Excellent article in the FT outlining what the stumbling blocks are.
Interesting reading. Haven't seen this much detail elsewhere.

https://www.ft.com/content/89d1168e-764f-4900-8fa8-42007b49082f

Hamas leader says examining Gaza ceasefire proposal in ‘positive spirit’

Militant group says will send negotiators to Cairo ‘as soon as possible’ after US says moment has come to reach truce

https://www.ft.com/content/89d1168e-764f-4900-8fa8-42007b49082f

OP posts:
greenlettuce · 04/05/2024 16:15

Scirocco · 04/05/2024 16:07

And if that government is no longer fit for purpose due to its actions and inactions, presumably there are mechanisms which could be used to remove it and prevent it going further down a path which goes against the will of the electorate.

Mechanisms which have not been used thus far.

People in Gaza have no such options. Are you seriously suggesting that a starving, traumatised and displaced civilian population with no resources is feasibly going to overpower a military force, while rescuing and safeguarding hostages taken by that force, then rescue any hostages remaining elsewhere, then form a viable leadership and negotiating team, all while continuing to be bombed, shot and starved?

Pretty much nobody likes Hamas. But negotiating with them is realistically the only way to achieve a ceasefire and safe return of hostages. Sometimes you have to sit down and negotiate, because the alternative is worse.

Are suggesting that the Israeli government is removed? and if so by whom?

Scirocco · 04/05/2024 16:20

greenlettuce · 04/05/2024 16:15

Are suggesting that the Israeli government is removed? and if so by whom?

Well, if a democratically elected government is no longer acting in the interests of citizens, or if elected representatives have lost confidence in that government, there are usually processes that can be used to remove that government from power, such as votes of no confidence.

Presumably that's an option open to citizens and elected representatives in Israel, if the government is considered to no longer be fit to govern.

People in Gaza have no such options.

SharonEllis · 04/05/2024 16:24

Dulra · 04/05/2024 15:42

Get rid of Hamas and negotiate with someone else.
Who? Hamas are the ones holding the hostages so the only people Israel can negotiate their release with!

Well other brokers, such as Qatar are and will have to be involved in the negotiations specifically relating to the release of hostages because Hamas relies on external support for their survival. After & beyond that Hamas needs to be cut out of the process as quickly as possible. As anyone who actually cares about the Palestinians thinks. They have no legitimacy. Israel is complicated because the nature of their electoral system throws up situations which give coalition partners disproportionate power & when a country is under attack people do tend to coalesce around the existing government but we know Netanyahu is not popular and what usually happens in a democracy such as this is that someone with a vision for the next step comes forward. We have to hope thats the case and more importantly support Israel to move to that stage.

Dulra · 04/05/2024 17:58

SharonEllis · 04/05/2024 16:24

Well other brokers, such as Qatar are and will have to be involved in the negotiations specifically relating to the release of hostages because Hamas relies on external support for their survival. After & beyond that Hamas needs to be cut out of the process as quickly as possible. As anyone who actually cares about the Palestinians thinks. They have no legitimacy. Israel is complicated because the nature of their electoral system throws up situations which give coalition partners disproportionate power & when a country is under attack people do tend to coalesce around the existing government but we know Netanyahu is not popular and what usually happens in a democracy such as this is that someone with a vision for the next step comes forward. We have to hope thats the case and more importantly support Israel to move to that stage.

Quatar are mediating the negotiations. Yes going forward Hamas need to be removed but the current negotiations are for a ceasefire and hostage release this needs to happen urgently to save both Israeli and Palestinian lives.
Who governs in Israel and Gaza is for another day once ceasefire and hostage release is secured
How long the ceasefire lasts is questionable considering Netanyahu has already said they'll have a ground offensive in Rafah regardless

SharonEllis · 04/05/2024 18:24

Dulra · 04/05/2024 17:58

Quatar are mediating the negotiations. Yes going forward Hamas need to be removed but the current negotiations are for a ceasefire and hostage release this needs to happen urgently to save both Israeli and Palestinian lives.
Who governs in Israel and Gaza is for another day once ceasefire and hostage release is secured
How long the ceasefire lasts is questionable considering Netanyahu has already said they'll have a ground offensive in Rafah regardless

So you do understand that other parties are part of the negotiation?! Good. And Hamas has said they will repeat Oct 7th again and again & Iran their backers have declared their intention to destroy Israel. Hence Israel's determination to destroy Hamas. Any negotiation in any conflict has the next phase of negotiations in mind - its an ongoing process in a conflict as deep seated as this one. One round lays the foundation for the next round (this is very basic stuff that any negotiator knows). History tells us that every single ceasefire in this region ends up being broken. Usually by anti-Israel forces and of course October7th was Hamas breaking a ceasefire, which seems to be repeatedly forgotten.

NerdWhoEatsMedlar · 04/05/2024 19:23

Which ceasefire is this @SharonEllis ?

Was there one put in place after this news report?

MIDDLE EAST
Israel strikes Gaza for the third straight day as West Bank violence escalates
UPDATED SEPTEMBER 24, 20232:18 PM ET
By
The Associated Press

SharonEllis · 04/05/2024 19:43

NerdWhoEatsMedlar · 04/05/2024 19:23

Which ceasefire is this @SharonEllis ?

Was there one put in place after this news report?

MIDDLE EAST
Israel strikes Gaza for the third straight day as West Bank violence escalates
UPDATED SEPTEMBER 24, 20232:18 PM ET
By
The Associated Press

The ceasefire in place on 6 October. There are always skirmishes, regular rocket fire from Hamas and Hezbollah, stabbings etc that don't lead to all out war. As I think you know!

Itoosurvive · 04/05/2024 20:28

And Hamas has said they will repeat Oct 7th again and again & Iran their backers have declared their intention to destroy Israel. @SharonEllis

And that becomes part of the negotiation. Hamas cease their intention to repeat Oct 7th in return for cessation of Israeli violence. The Palestinians have very few bargaining chops, just the hostages and the promise to end violence against Israel. Why not let them use them?
They can also put on hold their intention to destroy Israel, in return for settler vacation of the west bank and recognition of a Palestinian state by Israel.
That's how peace negotiations start.

Hezbollah is another matter.

OP posts:
ScrollingLeaves · 04/05/2024 20:44

SharonEllis · 04/05/2024 09:22

@Dulra are you aware that administrative detention is entirely legal under international law in the sort of circumstances that Israel finds itself in after oct 7 and in the face of the sort of terrorism I outlined above prior to oct 7? While there are undoubtedly cases that cross the line many do not. How would you manage teenage terrorists attacking you? Its a difficult question isn't it? As ever you cherry picked my post! And as I ever I need to remind you that the hostages are entirely innocent civilians. No grey areas. Why does Hamas not release them? What possible justification is there for keeping them?

administrative detention is entirely legal under international law in the sort of circumstances that Israel finds itself in after oct 7

Isn’t it the case that there are many prisoners held by Israel from well before Oct 7?

And as I ever I need to remind you that the hostages are entirely innocent civilians. No grey areas.

Aren’t some of the hostages soldiers?

Itoosurvive · 04/05/2024 21:07

From Ha'aretz
According to the report, Hamas was guaranteed by the U.S. for a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and that Israeli forces will not continue fighting once the hostages are released â–  An Israeli official told Haaretz that 'Israel will, under no circumstances, agree to end the war as part of a deal' and is determined to enter Rafah
May 4, 2024 2:02 pm

So it appears to be Israel that does not want to give up the fighting.

OP posts:
mids2019 · 05/05/2024 05:38

I think ultimately you have to consider whether Hamas can agree to making term ceasefire as their reason for existence is to strike Israel. It maybe the on going talks are aimed at PR rather than concrete goals as both sides have very much ingrained determination to continue conflict. Israel want Hamas quite rightly destroyed and Hamas aren't a party of peace indeed the opposite.

I think from Hamas perspective they can't look to their people as surrendering i.e. Agreeing to peace as they have lost so much. Without funding for regeneration how popular will Hamas be if they release all remaining hostages even if Israel does withdraw across the border?.Hamas can't exactly claim a victory for its people especially if it is neutered by preventions of rearming. If Hamas agree to peace I think internally it would split as there would be literally no where to go. There may be an element of the suicide fighter set into Hamas psychology where they are willing to go down in a blaze of glory taking everyone with them; we have to realise most Hamas fighters are designed to death when engaging with a much superior army.

From Israel's perspective without a change in government Benjamin Netanyahu will wish to complete what he vowed to i.e. destroy Hamas in Rafah but he must be seen to engage in talks to see if a peace can be gained prior to this.

Ironically I think the destruction of Hamas may the only way in reality for a sustainable peace to occur no matter our strength of feeling. If Hamas eventually can't sustain power then new representatives from the Palestinian people may make headway with Israel.

Scirocco · 05/05/2024 08:08

@mids2019 does your last paragraph mean you think the preferred course of action should be the planned ground offensive into Rafah?

SharonEllis · 05/05/2024 08:31

@mids2019 I think the destruction of Hamas is obviously the only way to achieve peace because they have said they will repeat oct 7th over & over again. Its just a statement of fact that Israel can't have security with Hamas in power. Given the abysmal way Hamas have run Gaza and oppressed the people of Gaza & shown no intetest in their security its also surely a prerequisite for peace & liberty for Gazans too.

ConnieCounter · 05/05/2024 11:23

I can't believe what I read around here sometimes. Absolutely outrageous. We need to continue the genocide in Gaza to ensure peace for Israelis. So reasonable.

Clearly Hamas want a permanent ceasefire and Israel wants to finish the obliteration of Gaza and tens of thousands of its people. It's not complicated. Both sides are being very forthright.

mids2019 · 05/05/2024 11:40

@SharonEllis

I don't think we can avoid the fact Hamas is a proscribed terrorist organisation and they simply can't from an existential point of view change to a party of peace and reconciliation. No one is going to believe that

We therefore I think have both parties engaging in peace talks for international approval rather than a commitment at this point to peace. It would be a lot simpler without Hamas in power.

Even if you do have a ceasfire Israel will still target Hamas leaders as war criminals in much the same way Osama bin Laden was taken out.

Hamas as a governing organisation would be in danger meeting in public due to the threat of an IDA bomb.

Itsabeautufulday · 05/05/2024 11:55

ConnieCounter · 05/05/2024 11:23

I can't believe what I read around here sometimes. Absolutely outrageous. We need to continue the genocide in Gaza to ensure peace for Israelis. So reasonable.

Clearly Hamas want a permanent ceasefire and Israel wants to finish the obliteration of Gaza and tens of thousands of its people. It's not complicated. Both sides are being very forthright.

'Clearly Hamas want a permanent ceasefire ' 😂 deluded much. Poor little terrorists, why don't people believe us, we no longer want to rape and kill.

Raging psychos always tell truth of course. I guess they must be losing. They could surrender and release hostages. Hamas need to no longer have any part of Gaza. Netanyahu also needs to go. New governance for both.

Itsabeautufulday · 05/05/2024 11:59

SharonEllis · 05/05/2024 08:31

@mids2019 I think the destruction of Hamas is obviously the only way to achieve peace because they have said they will repeat oct 7th over & over again. Its just a statement of fact that Israel can't have security with Hamas in power. Given the abysmal way Hamas have run Gaza and oppressed the people of Gaza & shown no intetest in their security its also surely a prerequisite for peace & liberty for Gazans too.

Perhaps if they spent more time working on the good of the country and less time planning how to rape and kill people living in Israel, Gaza might be a better place?

The people of Gaza deserve much better than Hamas have given them. They deserve much, much better governance.

Scirocco · 05/05/2024 12:13

Itsabeautufulday · 05/05/2024 11:59

Perhaps if they spent more time working on the good of the country and less time planning how to rape and kill people living in Israel, Gaza might be a better place?

The people of Gaza deserve much better than Hamas have given them. They deserve much, much better governance.

You're right. I also think the people of Gaza (and Palestinians living elsewhere in the Occupied Territories) deserve to live. That's a view many of the Israeli government and IDF don't share though.

SharonEllis · 05/05/2024 12:30

ConnieCounter · 05/05/2024 11:23

I can't believe what I read around here sometimes. Absolutely outrageous. We need to continue the genocide in Gaza to ensure peace for Israelis. So reasonable.

Clearly Hamas want a permanent ceasefire and Israel wants to finish the obliteration of Gaza and tens of thousands of its people. It's not complicated. Both sides are being very forthright.

Of course Hamas want Israel to cease firing permanently. Obviously. Absolutely nobody disoutes that. A permanent ceasefire requires Hamas to also stock attacking Israel in terms of rocket attacks, attacks on civilians etc. Where is the evidence they will?

ConnieCounter · 05/05/2024 12:40

SharonEllis · 05/05/2024 12:30

Of course Hamas want Israel to cease firing permanently. Obviously. Absolutely nobody disoutes that. A permanent ceasefire requires Hamas to also stock attacking Israel in terms of rocket attacks, attacks on civilians etc. Where is the evidence they will?

Because they want to sign up to a ceasefire and that's what a ceasefire is.

NerdWhoEatsMedlar · 05/05/2024 12:51

I don't think we can avoid the fact Hamas is a proscribed terrorist organisation and they simply can't from an existential point of view change to a party of peace and reconciliation. No one is going to believe that

Do you mean that terrorists can never become parties of peace and rule effectively?

NerdWhoEatsMedlar · 05/05/2024 13:14

On the formation of Israel:

Terrorism The main terrorist groups were Irgun Zvai Leumi (National Military Organisation) - ultimately led by future Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin - and an even more militant organisation, Lohamey Heruth Israel (Fighters for the Freedom of Israel) or LHI.
The British called LHI the Stern Gang after its leader, Abraham Stern, who was killed in a clash with the Palestine Police in 1942. In November 1944, LHI assassinated the British Minister for the Middle East, Lord Moyne.
https://www.nam.ac.uk/explore/conflict-Palestine

There were even kidnappings and bombings.
Should these people have been allowed to run a country?

Israelis and Palestinians are all people, they should have the same rights and chances.

A Jewish refugee ship in Palestine, 1947

The British Army in Palestine | National Army Museum

In the 1940s, the British Army found itself stuck in the middle of a growing conflict between Arabs and Jews in Palestine. The momentous events that followed led to the creation of the State of Israel.

https://www.nam.ac.uk/explore/conflict-Palestine

TextureSeeker · 05/05/2024 13:35

SharonEllis · 05/05/2024 08:31

@mids2019 I think the destruction of Hamas is obviously the only way to achieve peace because they have said they will repeat oct 7th over & over again. Its just a statement of fact that Israel can't have security with Hamas in power. Given the abysmal way Hamas have run Gaza and oppressed the people of Gaza & shown no intetest in their security its also surely a prerequisite for peace & liberty for Gazans too.

I agree that Hamas needs to go, obviously the way Israel are doing it is never going to work though.

Really it needs to be a 2 state solution and a legitimate Palestinian military, Israel are a huge threat to Palestinians not in an existential way but a really real it happens every day of the week way. In the absence of legitimate military they are always going to turn to someone to protect them. A legitimate military that operates in both Gaza and the West Bank that has the power to actually protect and work in the best interests of Palestinians would help stop the perpetual fear that they must feel and help ordinary Palestinians have the mental space to thrive rather than always living in fight or flight mode, never knowing if today is the day Israel are coming to take their husbands or children away, whether today is the day they will be shot going to get bread or if their children will be murdered hanging out washing. The UN could help with military training and oversee the process in the beginning. Until Palestinians feel safe though there will always be a terrorist group there and some people will support them because they give them some sense of 'at least there is someone to fight for us'.

SharonEllis · 05/05/2024 14:06

Itsabeautufulday · 05/05/2024 11:59

Perhaps if they spent more time working on the good of the country and less time planning how to rape and kill people living in Israel, Gaza might be a better place?

The people of Gaza deserve much better than Hamas have given them. They deserve much, much better governance.

That was my point.

SharonEllis · 05/05/2024 14:12

ConnieCounter · 05/05/2024 12:40

Because they want to sign up to a ceasefire and that's what a ceasefire is.

Just saying it isn't evidence though is it? Especially in the light of repeated statements from hamas and their backers, Iran, that they do not recognise Israel's right to exist & wish to destroy it & repeat 7 october. Of course they will say they want a ceasefire - but why don't they release all the hostages?