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Conflict in the Middle East

Israeli Intelligence services ?

31 replies

Itoosurvive · 15/01/2024 11:03

How can an intelligence service that is capable of intercepting a specific telephone call between two PIJ terrorists discussing a mis-fired rocket on a hospital, have no idea about the invasion and subsequent atrocity of Oct 7 that must have been months in the planning and involved hundreds of people.

Any thoughts ?

OP posts:
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sunshinesupermum · 15/01/2024 11:19

I would ask this question on israelilefty's thread: I am a Jewish Israeli AMA.

XRAYTHIS · 15/01/2024 13:07

There are lots of different articles on this. The US missed 9/11, The UK missed various terrorist attacks, France missed others etc.

PurpleChrayne · 15/01/2024 13:11

A lot of the preparation was done analogue, with pen and paper, word of mouth.

What are you trying to imply? That Israel let it happen? Have the courage to come out with it, at least.

DownNative · 15/01/2024 17:57

Itoosurvive · 15/01/2024 11:03

How can an intelligence service that is capable of intercepting a specific telephone call between two PIJ terrorists discussing a mis-fired rocket on a hospital, have no idea about the invasion and subsequent atrocity of Oct 7 that must have been months in the planning and involved hundreds of people.

Any thoughts ?

Apply the expanded Hanlon's Razor:

"Never attribute to bad intentions (e.g., malice or self-interest) that which is adequately explained by other causes (e.g., stupidity, ignorance, carelessness, incompetence, or lack of information)."

People commonly misunderstand the world of intelligence. Often, the assumption is that intelligence is always of high quality - wrong, it greatly varies from detailed information to very vague information. The other common assumption is that if an attack gets through, its deliberately allowed to happen which doesn't make much sense.

Often, contextual information is left out lest it undermine the conspiracy that intelligence allowed something to happen or to show they're incompetent. Other explanations exist such as incorrect information supplied, information not passed along the security chain, situations suddenly changed so intelligence agencies had to change plans last minute and many more possible explanations.

Intelligence and security failures can have multiple explanations as shown by the US enquiry into 9/11.

The following is an excellent point most people don't understand about intelligence:

"In fact, experts say the sheer quantity of intelligence that Israel collects on Hamas, as well as the group’s constant activity and organizing, may have played a role in obscuring plans for this particular attack amid the endless barrage of potentially credible threats."

And:

"“Intelligence in an environment like Israel isn't finding a needle in a haystack—it's finding the needle that will hurt you in a pile of needles,” Williams says. “Given the number of Hamas members involved in the invasion, it's not plausible to me that Israel missed every human intelligence reflection of the planning. But I feel confident that there are always Hamas operatives talking about credible plans to attack the IDF. So Israel can't respond with force to every threat, even every credible one. They'd be at a heightened state of alert or actively engaged all the time, and that's probably actually worse for security.”

Jake Williams, US National Security Agency hacker and current faculty member at the Institute for Applied Network Security

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/israel-hamas-war-surveillance

"The question everyone’s asking is, what role did Iran play? We don’t know. Iran has clearly been a supporter of Hamas financially, materially and politically. But we don’t know the extent to which Iran was involved in the logistical operational part of this training, or what kind of logistical support (it offered the October 7 operation).

I don’t think anyone knows that. Every (country’s) intelligence was caught completely unaware of this, including and especially the Israelis."

Khaled Elgindy, senior fellow at the DC-based Middle East Institute where he directs the program on Palestine and Israeli-Palestinian Affairs.

Israel's Failure to Stop the Hamas Attack Shows the Danger of Too Much Surveillance

Hundreds dead, thousands wounded—Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel shows the limits of even the most advanced and invasive surveillance dragnets as full-scale war erupts.

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/israel-hamas-war-surveillance

DownNative · 15/01/2024 17:59

To address the widely misunderstood aspect of Egypt in this part of intelligence:

What we know is that Egypt gave a warning of something that wasn't especially clear of the nature of potential attack:

"We (Egypt) have warned them an explosion of the situation is coming, and very soon, and it would be big. But they underestimated such warnings," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity

www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67082047

And:

"We know that Egypt has warned the Israelis three days prior that an event like this could happen," Mr McCaul told reporters following a closed-door intelligence briefing on Wednesday for lawmakers about the Middle East crisis, according to AFP news agency.

"I don't want to get too much into classified, but a warning was given," the Texas Republican added. "I think the question was at what level."

So, the threat level really wasn't clear. Israeli security services receive a LOT of reports of threats, but many of them aren't immediate threats. The challenge is always sorting out actual threats from perceived threats.

Kindatired · 15/01/2024 22:26

Why did it take responders so long to get such short distances? Did they not plan for road blocks ? The terrorists seemed to have just walked in and brutalised everyone for hours. Some of them didn’t even seem armed- the New York Times shows a white bearded old man hobbling in on crutches- he looked old enough to have been one of the farmers who were displaced in 1948.”The attackers were largely free to plunder, murder and kidnap.”
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/22/world/europe/beeri-massacre.html

DownNative · 16/01/2024 08:32

Kindatired · 15/01/2024 22:26

Why did it take responders so long to get such short distances? Did they not plan for road blocks ? The terrorists seemed to have just walked in and brutalised everyone for hours. Some of them didn’t even seem armed- the New York Times shows a white bearded old man hobbling in on crutches- he looked old enough to have been one of the farmers who were displaced in 1948.”The attackers were largely free to plunder, murder and kidnap.”
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/22/world/europe/beeri-massacre.html

Edited

That's addressed in one of the articles I posted, IIRC.

Short version - Hamas targeted and disabled communications which is absolutely vital for quick, effective and targeted deployment of any and all security agencies anywhere in the world. No information available in real time to first responders so the first hours was chaotic and slow.

ScrollingLeaves · 16/01/2024 16:11

There must be many factors just as 9/11 was missed or Ukraine could not believe Russia would invade but a worrying factor is that people/men seem to have been unwilling to listen to women:

Here are the harrowing reports of the poor, young female surveillance officers who were ignored then undefended; and one of these articles also mentions that some of these who survived the Hamas massacre have even been cruelly sent back to where it all happened.

Surveillance soldiers charge sexism a factor in their Oct. 7 warnings being ignored | The Times of Israel
https://www.timesofisrael.com/surveillance-soldiers-say-oct-7-warnings-ignored-charge-sexism-played-a-role/

Surveillance soldiers warned of Hamas activity on Gaza border for months before Oct. 7 | The Times of Israel
https://www.timesofisrael.com/surveillance-soldiers-warned-of-hamas-activity-on-gaza-border-for-months-before-oct-7/

Here we hear of how a senior, experienced, high echelon female intelligence officer’s warnings were not acted upon.

Israel Knew Hamas’s Attack Plan Over a Year Ago - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-attack-intelligence.html

Israeli intelligence leak details extent of warnings over Hamas attack | Israel | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/28/israeli-military-had-warning-of-hamas-training-for-attack-reports-say

MercanDede · 16/01/2024 19:40

Itoosurvive · 15/01/2024 11:03

How can an intelligence service that is capable of intercepting a specific telephone call between two PIJ terrorists discussing a mis-fired rocket on a hospital, have no idea about the invasion and subsequent atrocity of Oct 7 that must have been months in the planning and involved hundreds of people.

Any thoughts ?

The phone call between PIJ regarding a misfired rocket hasn’t been authenticated. It was produced very quickly along with graphics later proven to be erroneous by IDF.

I think the Shin Bet intelligence services are not that good. The public inquiry will uncover a lot of systemic issues. The fact that they ignored female IDF observers because they’re women shows they’re sexist. The fact they rely on torture to get Intel from Palestinian detainees shows they’re racist.

MercanDede · 16/01/2024 19:42

DownNative · 16/01/2024 08:32

That's addressed in one of the articles I posted, IIRC.

Short version - Hamas targeted and disabled communications which is absolutely vital for quick, effective and targeted deployment of any and all security agencies anywhere in the world. No information available in real time to first responders so the first hours was chaotic and slow.

Hamas disabled military communications and warnings systems by attacking military bases. There was still regular commercial communications- cell phone, internet, radio dispatch which did not affect civilian first responders.

DownNative · 17/01/2024 12:21

MercanDede · 16/01/2024 19:42

Hamas disabled military communications and warnings systems by attacking military bases. There was still regular commercial communications- cell phone, internet, radio dispatch which did not affect civilian first responders.

Can't recall where I address civilian communications infrastructure, but those were also jammed.

In fact, jamming civilian communications has been a problem since well before 7th October 2023.

Jamming of civilian communications has grounded planes, for example.

Civilian first responders were affected too.

Anything else?! 🤔

Israeli Intelligence services ?
MercanDede · 17/01/2024 16:45

DownNative · 17/01/2024 12:21

Can't recall where I address civilian communications infrastructure, but those were also jammed.

In fact, jamming civilian communications has been a problem since well before 7th October 2023.

Jamming of civilian communications has grounded planes, for example.

Civilian first responders were affected too.

Anything else?! 🤔

FACT: The civilian comms were not jammed on Oct 7th. Civilian first responders were unaffected.

The fact that the people in the Kibbutzim were sending heartbreaking messages over civilian comms networks while Hamas was attacking= no jamming

The fact that in Kibbutz Be’eri, Hamas used a hostage and a landline phone to call the Israeli police as stated by this hostage who survived= no jamming

The fact that some survivors of the Nova festival used their cell phones to call their lifts to come and get them= no jamming

The fact that the Israeli police was able to contact the IDF = no jamming

FACT: Your screenshot only supports the fact that Hamas jammed military communications. It doesn’t support any jamming of civilian communications.

Where it references communications also being jammed, that excerpt comes from a longer report:
https://www.gpsworld.com/gps-jamming-increases-amid-israel-hamas-conflict/
Reports have surfaced indicating Hamas has actively jammed Israeli communication systems during the initial stages of the conflict. This strategic move highlights the increase of jamming GPS and communication networks in modern warfare scenarios, where precision and coordination are imperative.”

The report (above) it links to regarding jamming communications goes to a Reuters report that states Hamas only jammed military communications:
A commando unit attacked the Israeli army's southern Gaza headquarters and jammed its communications, preventing personnel from calling commanders or each other, the source said.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-israel-was-duped-hamas-planned-devastating-assault-2023-10-08/

GPS jamming increases amid Israel Hamas conflict - GPS World

Israel has declared war on the Palestinian militant group Hamas after it carried out an unprecedented attack by air, sea and land on October 7, 2023. Positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) services play a role in a variety of military systems and civ...

https://www.gpsworld.com/gps-jamming-increases-amid-israel-hamas-conflict/

MercanDede · 17/01/2024 16:52

Can't recall where I address civilian communications infrastructure”

@DownNative you were being vague and over generalising and so I clarified that it was only some military communications that were jammed. Meaning that only the IDF as a first responder was affected by military comms being jammed. The IDF helicopter pilots even say they were using WhatsApp with their COs to identify what targets to hit on Oct 7th- proof again that civilian comms were not jammed at all.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkanmp5w6

For clarity, I am referring to this post of yours:
”Hamas targeted and disabled communications which is absolutely vital for quick, effective and targeted deployment of any and all security agencies anywhere in the world. No information available in real time to first responders so the first hours was chaotic and slow.”

Air Force pilots guided via WhatsApp after Hamas deceptions during murderous attack

First helicopters arrive approximately an hour after the onset of the terror attack, pilots fire at targets both along the border and within besieged communities, often guided by mobile calls from forces on the ground

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkanmp5w6

Humdingerydoo · 17/01/2024 17:10

I'm not quite sure what some people are trying to imply without actively implying it? If you genuinely think that Israel let it happen on purpose or chose not to send first responders for whatever reason, at least be brave enough to say that and then provide all relevant sources to prove your point. Out yourself properly as being anti-Israel rather than pro-Palestinian.

MercanDede · 17/01/2024 17:17

Humdingerydoo · 17/01/2024 17:10

I'm not quite sure what some people are trying to imply without actively implying it? If you genuinely think that Israel let it happen on purpose or chose not to send first responders for whatever reason, at least be brave enough to say that and then provide all relevant sources to prove your point. Out yourself properly as being anti-Israel rather than pro-Palestinian.

I agree, the opening post is dodgy. Israel had no idea the attack was coming and the post implies if they can do x, then how could they not know? (Implying someone higher up knew and let it happen)

It’s just like the 9/11 conspiracy theories that Bush knew of that attack and let it happen.

First responders were not slow, only the IDF was delayed by military communications jamming and even then they improvised using civilian comms and were responding in less than an hour. All the other first responders were very fast, that’s why hundreds of Israeli police officers were killed by Hamas.

As for “chaotic” that isn’t unusual for a multi-pronged terrorist attack at all. That’s the nature of a terror attack and not something to be blamed on Israel.

Kindatired · 17/01/2024 18:27

The force that made a balls of self defence on 7/10 tells the world that the only way to defend Israel involves unintentionally killing and maiming and starving thousands of innocent children.

eluveitie · 17/01/2024 18:32

Humdingerydoo · 17/01/2024 17:10

I'm not quite sure what some people are trying to imply without actively implying it? If you genuinely think that Israel let it happen on purpose or chose not to send first responders for whatever reason, at least be brave enough to say that and then provide all relevant sources to prove your point. Out yourself properly as being anti-Israel rather than pro-Palestinian.

Typical conspiracy theories, testing the waters with "just wondering" and "just asking questions", then go deeper down the rabbit hole if people agree with them. Next thing you know it's Jewish space lasers did 9/11.

Although OP hasn't been back, at least under that username, so maybe didn't get the reception they were after.

DownNative · 17/01/2024 21:21

MercanDede · 17/01/2024 16:52

Can't recall where I address civilian communications infrastructure”

@DownNative you were being vague and over generalising and so I clarified that it was only some military communications that were jammed. Meaning that only the IDF as a first responder was affected by military comms being jammed. The IDF helicopter pilots even say they were using WhatsApp with their COs to identify what targets to hit on Oct 7th- proof again that civilian comms were not jammed at all.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkanmp5w6

For clarity, I am referring to this post of yours:
”Hamas targeted and disabled communications which is absolutely vital for quick, effective and targeted deployment of any and all security agencies anywhere in the world. No information available in real time to first responders so the first hours was chaotic and slow.”

On the contrary, I wasn't being vague and made it clear in my follow-up it applied to civilian communications also.

Hamas did jam communications and not just military - before AND during 7th October 2023.

https://www.gpsworld.com/gps-jamming-increases-amid-israel-hamas-conflict/

https://www.defsecme.com/defence/tech/gps-jamming-escalates-amid-israel-hamas-conflict

https://gnet-research.org/2023/10/20/technology-and-its-pivotal-role-in-hamass-successful-attacks-on-israel/

Hamas absolutely got their aim of disrupting communications and, therefore, efficient mobilisation including transportation of military and civilian assistance.

Additionally, they specifically chose an Israeli holiday (Shemini Atzeret/Simchat Torah) when work is traditionally forbidden. Some Israeli Defence Force personnel near Gaza were so unprepared they were in civilian clothing when they were murdered.

This holiday was planned to increase effectiveness of Hamas' attack.

The first few hours WERE chaotic with little information available and the Israeli Defence Force personnel were therefore slowly moving through the terrain unsure of what to find.

Indeed, your own link makes this clear as it took the Israeli Air Force some time to take to the air. More than an hour after. And it wasn't until 3-4 hours had passed that they took stronger action. Initially, mobiles were jammed to aid in Hamas' disruption of attack. The Israeli military have their own anti-jamming equipment, hence mobiles could later be used.

But let's not pretend Hamas have no capability to jam civilian communications when they do. Their cyberwarfare capabilities are more advanced than many suppose and they used fake Facebook accounts and porn to get information from Israel Defence Force personnel before 7th October 2023 too.

Israeli Intelligence services ?
DownNative · 17/01/2024 21:47

Cellphone carriers were NOT immune to Hamas' cellular signals jamming. That goes for military AND civilian cellphone carriers.

The devices Hamas used does not differentiate between military and civilian cellphone signals.

IIRC, this was used in the first stage of the attacks.

BTW, apache helicopters weren't in the air quickly either. An hour or more is far, far too slow when their base really wasn't far from the Gazan border. For that distance AND will timely, reliable information, they should have been in the air within minutes.

Not an hour or more.

That speaks to the chaotic situation with a lack of detailed information. The helicopter pilots had difficulty telling Israeli civilians from Hamas terrorists. It wasn't until 3-4 hours post attack that they opened up fire in a heavy manner. Again, very slow.

https://www.newsweek.com/2023/11/24/israels-high-tech-border-failure-could-happen-us-experts-say-1843772.html

Israeli Intelligence services ?