To be surprised approx 12% of adults die by age 70?

[Constantrunner]

By adults I mean they die between 18 and 70 years of age. This includes some of my friends who died of cancer, but it still surprises me that the figure is so high. Bu5 maybe it's well known and it's just me who had no idea?

I’m pleasantly surprised by this, I thought it was higher.

Where did you get that statistic from? Feels like if 18-70, then it should be higher.

I would definitely have guessed more people would have died before 70.

Doesn't surprise me - I lost all my nuclear family before I was 50. Mum at 53 (cancer), dad at 64 (cancer), brother at 47 (seizure). Very few of my extended family have lived long enough to claim state pension. After discussing it with my GP we ended up at three main causes - bad genes (cancer), bad lifestyle (cancer due to industrial disease), bad luck (cancer, seizure).

At 54 I have very few blood relatives left, and I don't actually know them because they are very distant cousins. I am single and wouldn't know who to name as my next of kin if anything happened. My emergency contact is my best friend.

In fact, I’d really like a source for that statistic to understand it better.

Google AI saying it's 25% in UK die before 70 - seems to be taking it from BBC article in 2025
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8j09vn2x2ko

Overall death rates are largely a reflection of older people's health as more than three-quarters of UK deaths happen over the age of 70.

ONS looks at under 75 has it as 38% of male deaths occuring with fewer female deaths.

So I'm not sure that figure as low as 12 % is actually correct.

50s does seem to be when circulatory diseases, cancers start to hit in some numbers though cancers in under 50s have been on the rise in last few decades.

Even putting in % of deaths between 18 and 70 that roughly 20% to 22% of all deaths take place between the ages of 18 and 70.

Approximately 19% of men pass away before reaching age 65, with cancer and circulatory diseases serving as the leading medical drivers in middle age.

Same

I’m probably skewed as I work in healthcare caring for people with respiratory problems and previously gastro medicine (a lot of alcohol related health issues with this).
im surprised it’s 12% because I thought this was higher.

I have a feeling it’s going to get higher….we’re seeing younger and younger people (some in 20s and 30s) within symptoms of COPD.
we have a lot of obese, inactive people, more younger people diagnosed with fatty liver, high blood pressure and type 2 diabetes…..

I got the figure from ai to those asking.

I went to a small secondary in the 80s. Probably about 100 kids in my year. I know 4 women in my year who have died in their 40s.

Google AI giving me higher figures which seem to come from news articles and ONS data sets.

So maybe ask how it got that figure?

It could be looking at a subgroup - women last longer - or social economic group - lower social economic groips are live in higher risk of dying at younger ages.

It seems very low to be correct.

Sounds about right. I remember my mum saying years ago that it's quite common to die in your 50's and 60's of various things but if you make it past that you are likely to survive into your 90's.

I think the difference is that most when quoting deaths under 70 are going from birth to 70 not 18-70

Life expectancy alters as we get older, it increases if you live to 65 your life expectancy goes up to about 85, however if you live to 85 it goes up to 89 etc

I’ve got 20% not 12% from AI

I'm 52. Quite a few people I was at school with have died.
Those I know of;
4 due to alcoholism (all dead by 40)
2 due to car crashes (1 as a teen, 1 at 48)
2 classmates died at 50 and 1 at 40, but I don't know their causes of death.
This is from a small school btw (maybe 140 in year group)

I did look at 18-70 specifically and it gave 20-22% which is still much higher than 12%.

@Badvocthebad that's 6% not great but in line with stats even when average age of death was 40 it was mostly skewered by early deaths and infant mortality so if back then you survived childhood you had a decent chance of making it to 60+ but life expectancy does vary wildly across UK it's lowest in some areas of Glasgow where the average for men is roughly 69 while more affluent areas it is closer to 85

Im in my 60s now. My sister died in her 50s from cancer. My dad died at 65 with cardiac condition. 4 girls in the same school year as me didnt make it past 36 x

This is how averages work....

This is a very relevant thread OP. Thank you for starting it. I was just looking at my state pension forecast and wondering what are the chances I will live long enough to get it? Looks like 88% (because I do expect the state pension age to raised again)

Whatever the actual figures is it's not an average of anything it's an actual %age

I would have no way to even guess an answer to this but if I had to 12% seems low

I don't think it's shocking, which is why I will always support retiring as soon as you can afford to.

Likely from the ONS National Life Tables.

See section 4 of this page for a link to the data

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2022to2024

For the UK as a whole, it says that 19.4% of men who reach the age of 18, then die before they get to 70.

For women, the figure is 12.8%. So you're looking at around 16.1% overall.

In comparison, the figures for 1980 were 37.5% for men and 22.5% for women. So, back in the 1980s, more than a third of adult men and almost a quarter of women did not make it to their 70th birthday.

The current figures for individual countries are

England Men 18.9%, women 12.3%
Wales Men 21.4%, women 14.4%
Scotland Men 23.7%, women 16.2%
N Ireland Men 20.0%, women 13.5%