AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling?

[bagpuss90]

I get that we have been advised to stock up on essentials, though I think it will encourage panic buying. I will probably get a few days worth of stuff at some point . My friend however has, at least in my opinion gone ott about it. She’s stocking up a six month supply of food. She’s bought head torches, a camping gas stove and various other stuff. She thinks I’m being naive …Am I missing something here ?

If electricity goes I'll use my generator which is run by petrol.

A litre lasts about 6-7 hours.

Someone said about loo water, I have a 200L butt in the garden, so that can be loo water I suppose.
I have cats and a dog so I have copious amount of cat litter and poo bags, if it comes to it....

Am I a prepper now?🤔

They are struggling in Ukraine for almost 5 years now using weaponry dating back to the USSR.

I thought WWIII will be just a quick blast and goodnight Vienna but I'm not so sure now.

We always have a good amount of non perishables stockpiled because we live in a rural area so it's always been the done thing for us.It has stood us in good stead for extreme weather , sickness and cancelled deliveries etc as we are a long way from supermarkets. I haven't got 6 months of everything, we just don't have the space to store it although I was checking my stores prior to shopping this week and I have got a few months of laundry liquid, fabric conditioner , washing up liquid, shampoo , conditioner, shower gel , bleach , cleaning sprays , dettol, and toothpaste in, got some loo roll of course but only about a months worth, need to work on adding to that as it's the first thing to vanish from the wee shops here when any kind of disaster strikes, I guess everyone sh!ts themselves in panic 😆
I've started buying things like tea bags, coffee, sugar ,pasta, rice, noodles and some tins & packets, stock cubes etc . but I mainly buy my stockpile items when they 're on special offers as that helps a lot with the budget
We also have a gas ring and cannisters which we were glad of recently when our cooker broke and we were waiting on a new one to be delivered. It's smart to be prepared when you don't have everything available on your doorstep

And there is a large community of us that are prepped for that. You come for my family you will be killed. It will be survival of the fittest if SHTF mega.

Having poo bags and a water butt doesn’t even come close to a prepper.

Prepping is so so much more than food. You need a very good supply of water antibiotics painkillers antiseptic wipes. If food runs out could you hunt? Could you keep your family safe from anyone who is trying to rob you for your food? Has she got a plan if she needs to leave her home? Is she bugging in or out? Does she have a grab bag if she needs to leave urgently. Does she have enough blankets if we have no gas and electricity to keep herself warm? How’s she cooking with no gas or electric? It’s all well and good having a stock of food but everything else needs to be thought about and planned.

Does the community that has prepared to that level outnumber the people who haven't? I'm afraid weight of numbers will probably make your prep the food of the fittest non-preppers

Hopefully it'll never get to that. But I think you're deluded if you really believe you could fight off a hoard of desperate people

I’m rural so for a hoard of hungry people to end up here wouldn’t happen. Would be completely different if we lived in a town or city. I also wouldn’t underestimate the amount of people I could plough through if my children were in danger. I definitely know which of my neighbours I could take out easily in that situation also.

Also to add in the prepping community your taught not to shout off about preps blend in with the crowd and don’t make it known you have x amount supply of food or water.

Oooh I cant wait to have my own house and start becoming a proper prepper

I can dedicate a whole space to it and have shelves and shit.

With all due respect this isn't a dedicated preppers thread- those are elsewhere on MN and other platforms. Taking on board all you've said, yes, in a world where 6 months with no external resources had become reality, many wouldn't be prepared; because most average households quite literally cannot afford some of the equipment or amenities that would be needed.

I just got some water purification tablets.

I read about how some hackers managed to switch off the water supply somewhere in Ireland for a few days. They could easily disrupt food deliveries or the national grid too. I doubt it would be for six months though.

This isn’t the preppers board though. Most are not prepping for these sort of things.

Some interesting stuff to watch.

Over the last few days there's been a lot of underreported developments in the Middle East.

Let's talk about diesel. Diesel is one of the products we get from refining crude oil.

This conversation is interesting in the context of Burnham going on about national security and social security at the end of last week. It was so badly timed and ill conceived in my honest opinion.

Let me expand why:

A few years back the UK had a total of 18 diesel refineries. This has now reduced to just four.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cdp-2025-0235/

This puts us in a position where we only produce 50% of the total amount of diesel we consume. The rest we mainly import from the Netherlands, with the rest coming from the US and directly from the Middle East.

The EU produces about 80% of the amount it consumed. The US is largely self sufficient atm but is currently operating at a 95% capacity to make up for short falls elsewhere.

The war in Iran has caused significant disruption to crude oil production and to diesel refining. Concerns are greatest around (but not confined to) diesel. The blockade of the Strait of Hormez has been affecting how much availability there is. As has the targeting of plants in the middle east by Iran which have not been reported by the media much. In order to mitigate this, national reserves have been used to cover short falls whilst production is increased elsewhere. Saudi Arabia has been particularly badly hit with the latest figures for August showing production was down 50%. Iraq has largely covered the short fall. And that's been finding whilst everyone thought the conflict wouldn't be prolonged.

That calculation is changing. The sentiment on this is now changing.

Over the last few days Iran and the US have escalated and started targeting oil tankers. Then the Iranian aligned Yemenis took land close to the Red Sea entrance. They now effectively control the strait which provides access to the Suez Canal. And they took out several large Saudi oil storage containers. Finally the east west Saudi pipeline which was basically propping up the Saudi exports got hit and will be closed for a couple of weeks. (Something that was officially confirmed AFTER the US markets closed on Friday).

The Saudis were one of the biggest exporters of oil products. The problem here is that with the Yemenis controlling the Red Sea Strait even if other countries in the middle east put up production we have a problem. They either have to go around Africa (more time and money) or a deal has to be reached with the Yemenis (and this is going to increase insurance costs anyway). This means at best, a time lag problem, so what we have in reserves matters for diesel.

But.

The US usually puts some of its refineries offline for maintenance over winter - just as demand tends to go up. Prices for diesel have already hit highs. With it being at capacity already and having low reserves there's an issue. And there is likely to be delays to crude oil deliveries compared to usual delivery times. And it's hurricane season and guess where a lot of US refineries are located? Paradoxically El Nino years tend to reduce the number of hurricanes in this area, so that may be something to be grateful for yet. So we are about to potentially have bigger issues.

Now consider what do we use diesel for?

Freight and Agriculture and Trains.

However you cut it, it's hard to see a scenario where diesel costs aren't going to skyrocket. Oh yes that's great for inflation over that...

It is not in Iranian interests to resolve matters until after the US midterms - they see Trump as the problem. If they can hold out they will. Even if China does step in to try and resolve matters immediately, there's still the small matter of Saudi infrastructure being screwed and that it will take time for someone else to fulfill the shortfall. That's China that's currently buying up oil at inflated

If this carries on for longer, and right now there's nothing to suggest this will be resolved immediately, there's going to be issues with demand exceeding supply. Aka shortages.

It depends on how much diesel the UK has in reserves. And how much the EU has in reserves. This is where national security issues start to kick in - if there are shortages in the EU will they prevent the export of diesel? Who is particularly exposed in that event?

Oh yes, that's us, the UK.

Now I sincerely hope, that Burnham is watching these developments very closely. Because it doesn't bloody matter what he wants to put in the budget, if these forces beyond his control start to escalate much further. THIS and THIS only could dominate calculations over the coming weeks and months.

Add to this. Martin Lewis was warning last week that gas prices are already headed above the energy price cap and there being a problem.

Oh and Russia's latest tactic seems to be targeting Ukrainian petrol stations. I can't think why...

So do we want a cold or a warm winter?

A warm winter = more storms and flooding.
A cold winter = greater pressure on energy when we are looking at a squeeze on fuel.

Rock meet Hardplace.

The next few months could be TOUGH. For everyone.

There are reasons here in the above, to really start considering your actions - not panicking - but planning effectively and efficiently. For example walking a bit more than you usually do if you can, isn't going to be the worse decision you can make that's for sure. Save fuel, get fit, save money without damaging the economy too much elsewhere, get used to walking...

Looking at all this, it is interesting timing for the government to have been gently nudging the public towards having extra supplies i, isn't it?

I think Burnham has jumped the gun somewhat on making public his spending intentions and will instead be left with even worse firefighting options (aka a choice between shit decisions no one wants to make).

The possibility of a genuine crisis and economic shock arising out of this - which could tip us into recession - are fairly high at this point. It's not definite, but there's some key warning signs here and the UK certainly has more exposure here than makes me comfortable, compared to other western countries - as well as less capacity to absorb yet another shock.

This isn't some fantasy. This isn't zombie apocalypse. This isn't over reacting. This is looking at the situation and going "hmm where is this going and how is it going to effect me" cos I don't think this events far away at all.

This is one of those pay close attention things like just before COVID. And hope to god that this unravels better than it currently seems to be shaping up in terms of possible outcomes.

With a complex cyber attack, it can take a while to be 100% sure that you've identified all the affected systems and got the hackers out. Co-op had to disconnect basically its entire network, to prevent the hackers doing even more damage.

I think it would be hard to make a law requiring them to keep back-up systems on or similar, given the damage that could cause.

👏🏼 My god @RedToothBrush what do you do for a living!? Brilliantly explained.

Now I sincerely hope, that Burnham is watching these developments very closely. Because it doesn't bloody matter what he wants to put in the budget, if these forces beyond his control start to escalate much further. THIS and THIS only could dominate calculations over the coming weeks and months.

This is not just the UK. It’s election tomorrow where I live, and NOONE is focusing or talking about anything that really matters much right now. Like this. They are all avoiding it. It’s like a bad headache noone talks about, and it’s a disgrace.

It's like every impending crisis.

No one ever wants to admit it's a real issue because they don't want to believe it. I think it's sometimes beyond the comprehension of people. No one could comprehend the whole world shutting down five years ago.

Some people see these events coming though because they pay attention and understand what is happening and these people always get shit for being doommongers etc etc. Because they are telling people something they don't want to hear. The messenger is always shot. This is what initially happened with COVID.

I've been seeing this brewing on twitter for few days now. So I did the digging on our exposure in the UK. The diesel issue seems to be the most immediate and serious (but isn't the only one from recent developments). Our exposure seems to be on the surface worse than I had anticipated.

If people acknowledge a problem, this is the point they have to start considering what they do. The fact that Burnham was going on about National Security and Social Security mid weeks when I was already looking at this raising an eyebrow, deeply concerns me. All it makes me think is 'do we have our eyes in the ball here?' or are we about to get a really nasty surprise?

I genuinely don't know.

Burnham's comments seem out of step with actual events though and as I say are really badly timed. If this was being monitored, as it should be, why would he say something that has a high chance of biting him heavily on the arse? All I can hope is we have decent reserves still and have planned well for the possibility of a shock to the system and everything will be just fine. But I am not going to bet this is the case either.

The Yemeni and pipe line developments were somewhat out of the blue and not anticipated by many too. A few years ago apparently the US had blockages to Hormez and the Red Sea at the same time as high on their list of risky scenarios. Some on Friday were saying it could be a really significant black swan moment. This has set alarm bells going off in my head.

As I say, I don't know. But putting it all together, I do think the risk profile is something we should be looking at and paying close attention to how this develops.

Beyond that, I don't have a crystal ball. I'm just looking at the risk and whether it's high or low.

Serious question
Do you really think theres enough wildlife in the U.K. that we could live from hunting?

The U.K. hasn’t been independent food wise since the mid 19th century.
There’s no way we could all just go hunting.
Actually I suspect we’d struggle even if a minority was.
i think you’d get more chance with having hens tbh. (For the eggs btw)

And with this background it’s batshit that some people complain about beiing asked to have enough food and water etc for a week or so to be able to manage on their own and not burden resources that could be better used elsewhere. Just frankly pure stupidity.

Nowhere in the UK is rural enough that you are unreachable. You will be outnumbered enormously.

Great post @RedToothBrush 👏. Horizon scanning is a great skill, listening to the horizon scanners is a skill many lack.

We've been "over shopping" for nearly a month, food inflation is going to be a thing without adding in issues around food distribution costs. In the UK the hot summer means farmers have been feeding winter feeds for most of the summer, they've had to water more, the food sources for the next winter feed haven't grown, crops haven't done well (apple crops are well down if anyone is a cider drinker!). The hot weather across Europe has been similar. Food prices are going to go up.

We always have a decent stock as we live rurally, I'm topping this up and keeping a bit more in the cupboards to smooth off the cost increases.

Excellent post.