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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think that Lucy Letby will get a new trial?

553 replies

NameChangeMay2026 · 28/05/2026 17:40

The previous thread on Letby is almost full. Posting here for traffic.

If we have any lawyers here, what do you think the likelihood is of Letby getting a new trial? I'm a layperson, but I'm going to guess that she will get one. It seems that many, many rebuttals have appeared since her conviction.

YABU - she will not get a new trial. The case is settled.
YANBU - the new evidence/discussion is compelling and she will probably get a re-trial.

I've been mainly convinced of her guilt, but I have started reading the free Private Eye series on the case by Phil Hammond. Now I don't know what to think. Here's the series, if anyone wants to read it. https://www.private-eye.co.uk/special-reports/lucy-letby

Special Report: The Lessons of the Lucy Letby Case

After Lucy Letby was convicted in August 2023 of murdering seven babies, a number of experts contacted Eye columnist MD because they

https://www.private-eye.co.uk/special-reports/lucy-letby

OP posts:
Thread gallery
5
Barbie222 · Yesterday 21:50

Nobody’s being silenced here. @followtheswallow. I’ve got my opinion and addled has theirs, which they’re perfectly entitled to post. I’m interested and learning from what I’m reading here, but on balance I do still feel she’s guilty of harming these babies as I don’t think that what I’m reading effectively discredits what I think happened. That’s normal healthy Mumsnet.

I don’t much like being told I can’t have an opinion, though, so I’ll push back against that in the same tone that’s handed out to me. And naturally, I’m inclined to be suspicious when the links shared come from a pro Letby site. So I’ll continue to post and think about this case as I please, thank you all the same.

Firefly1987 · Yesterday 21:51

@SnakesAndArrows no I know there was a third insulin case and turns out she was on shift for that also. The thing to remember is the extent of her crimes isn't known and she hasn't been put on trial for every baby she attacked. So people can point out other collapses or odd insulin results but it doesn't mean she wasn't there for them too.

Where's these vastly abnormal tests someone has managed to dig up out of thousands of standard ones then? That Lucy couldn't have possibly been near?

followtheswallow · Yesterday 21:52

You can have an opinion. What I’m objecting to is the attribution of anger to someone who clearly isn’t angry.

SnakesAndArrows · Yesterday 21:52

Firefly1987 · Yesterday 21:45

Well that's clearly never been seen before or her defence would've been all over it. Geoff Chase isn't even an insulin expert FFS all this talk of Dewi Evans not technically being a neonatologist (purely because it didn't exist as a separate specialism where he studied/worked) but yeah lets listen to a mechanical engineer on insulin 😆you couldn't make it up. I think I'll stick with the actual endocrinologists.

Indeed. It’s new evidence. Which is grounds for the CCRC to review the case…

And Professor Geoff Chase is an expert in insulin analysis. Why do you persist in denying this?

SnakesAndArrows · Yesterday 21:56

Firefly1987 · Yesterday 21:51

@SnakesAndArrows no I know there was a third insulin case and turns out she was on shift for that also. The thing to remember is the extent of her crimes isn't known and she hasn't been put on trial for every baby she attacked. So people can point out other collapses or odd insulin results but it doesn't mean she wasn't there for them too.

Where's these vastly abnormal tests someone has managed to dig up out of thousands of standard ones then? That Lucy couldn't have possibly been near?

We don’t know how many other test results from that lab (which tests samples across the whole Merseyside region) showed unexpected ratios. We do know that a proficiency test sample showed the wrong ratios. What’s your explanation for that?

Oftenaddled · Yesterday 21:58

Firefly1987 · Yesterday 21:45

Well that's clearly never been seen before or her defence would've been all over it. Geoff Chase isn't even an insulin expert FFS all this talk of Dewi Evans not technically being a neonatologist (purely because it didn't exist as a separate specialism where he studied/worked) but yeah lets listen to a mechanical engineer on insulin 😆you couldn't make it up. I think I'll stick with the actual endocrinologists.

It's some of that new evidence people are always talking about.

Chase and Shannon's work, along with work by endocrinologists and other specialists, is part of Mark McDonald's CCRC submission.

The design and appraisal of tests to measure insulin is engineers' responsibility. Endocrinologists don't design the tests. In the same way, they don't design delivery methods, which is why Hindmarsh was so irresponsible to guess at the effects of insulin sticking to plastic at Lucy Letby's original trial.

You need both engineers and endocrinologists to work in this problem, and they need to collaborate - as the defence now has them doing. I do not think it will change your mind but I think anyone else interested will be able to see how well qualified Chase is to discuss insulin measurement from his publication profile

scholar.google.com/citations?user=SOISrB0AAAAJ&hl=en

Oftenaddled · Yesterday 21:59

Firefly1987 · Yesterday 21:51

@SnakesAndArrows no I know there was a third insulin case and turns out she was on shift for that also. The thing to remember is the extent of her crimes isn't known and she hasn't been put on trial for every baby she attacked. So people can point out other collapses or odd insulin results but it doesn't mean she wasn't there for them too.

Where's these vastly abnormal tests someone has managed to dig up out of thousands of standard ones then? That Lucy couldn't have possibly been near?

Lucy Letby was only on shift for the third insulin case after the sample had been taken.

Oftenaddled · Yesterday 22:03

Chase / Shannon work discussed at https://archive.is/yvvsS (Telegraph)

IonianNerveGrip · Yesterday 22:04

Geoff Chase clearly is an expert on insulin and it's silly to dispute this. The people who complain about Dewi Evans not being a neonatologist are also being silly, because anyone of his vintage wouldn't have that title either and that's not the problem with his evidence. The one doesn't cancel out the other.

Oftenaddled · Yesterday 22:14

IonianNerveGrip · Yesterday 22:04

Geoff Chase clearly is an expert on insulin and it's silly to dispute this. The people who complain about Dewi Evans not being a neonatologist are also being silly, because anyone of his vintage wouldn't have that title either and that's not the problem with his evidence. The one doesn't cancel out the other.

Yes, agreed on both counts. Evans just isn't a scientific thinker - or he disguises it well! - and he placed too much emphasis on his personal experience in a very different unit years before.

Even the fact that Chester's consultants weren't neonatologists wouldn't matter much, but it needs to be remembered that none of them was spending more than a quarter of their working hours on the neonatal unit - being generous - and it was such a small ICU that their experience of dangerously ill babies would have been very limited. It really was a perfect storm at Chester.

Oftenaddled · Yesterday 22:21

Barbie222 · Yesterday 21:50

Nobody’s being silenced here. @followtheswallow. I’ve got my opinion and addled has theirs, which they’re perfectly entitled to post. I’m interested and learning from what I’m reading here, but on balance I do still feel she’s guilty of harming these babies as I don’t think that what I’m reading effectively discredits what I think happened. That’s normal healthy Mumsnet.

I don’t much like being told I can’t have an opinion, though, so I’ll push back against that in the same tone that’s handed out to me. And naturally, I’m inclined to be suspicious when the links shared come from a pro Letby site. So I’ll continue to post and think about this case as I please, thank you all the same.

The https://lucyletbyinnocence.com/ site certainly nails its colours to the mast with that title. Might be worth saying though, that I first read nearly all the material on external sites. It's just a really useful central repository.

A number of court transcripts are the exception. But a handful of people who support both prosecution and defence cases have published long excerpts, on YouTube and Reddit mostly, and it's reassuring to find that when what they publish overlaps, it matches.

I was glad to see lately that transcripts will now be archived at least as long as convicts are in prison. I was really shocked to learn that until now, they were usually destroyed after a few years, so you could be in jail with no comprehensive record of the case against you. But I believe that they should be publicly available (with appropriate redactions)

Firefly1987 · Yesterday 22:23

SnakesAndArrows · Yesterday 21:52

Indeed. It’s new evidence. Which is grounds for the CCRC to review the case…

And Professor Geoff Chase is an expert in insulin analysis. Why do you persist in denying this?

He's not and has never been a physician. ALL the actual physicians are saying there is no doubt this was insulin poisoning and you're listening to the one that isn't because you don't want to believe it.

SnakesAndArrows · Yesterday 22:41

Firefly1987 · Yesterday 22:23

He's not and has never been a physician. ALL the actual physicians are saying there is no doubt this was insulin poisoning and you're listening to the one that isn't because you don't want to believe it.

No, he’s not a physician. But he is an expert in insulin analysis, which is one of the major issues under discussion here. And the physicians are not experts in insulin analysis, no matter how much you want them to be.

You say ALL the physicians say there’s no doubt this was insulin poisoning, but that’s manifestly untrue. Shoo Lee’s panel do not believe this was insulin poisoning, for a start. I know you think the panels are only “so-called experts” but that’s a really silly position to take.

As and aside, can you explain why, when the physicians received the reports from the Liverpool lab that showed unusual ratios, they decided to ignore them? Surely if the lab results are so reliable and never throw up odd results they would have been horrified and taken action?

Oftenaddled · Yesterday 22:43

Firefly1987 · Yesterday 22:23

He's not and has never been a physician. ALL the actual physicians are saying there is no doubt this was insulin poisoning and you're listening to the one that isn't because you don't want to believe it.

Plenty of physicians think otherwise. Mark McDonald's submission on insulin isn't just from Shannon and Chase. It's from them alongside a statistician and physicians (including endocrinologists)

Do you know what engineering is? I'm amazed anyone thinks it's not relevant to how a test for insulin would work.

Firefly1987 · Yesterday 22:49

SnakesAndArrows · Yesterday 22:41

No, he’s not a physician. But he is an expert in insulin analysis, which is one of the major issues under discussion here. And the physicians are not experts in insulin analysis, no matter how much you want them to be.

You say ALL the physicians say there’s no doubt this was insulin poisoning, but that’s manifestly untrue. Shoo Lee’s panel do not believe this was insulin poisoning, for a start. I know you think the panels are only “so-called experts” but that’s a really silly position to take.

As and aside, can you explain why, when the physicians received the reports from the Liverpool lab that showed unusual ratios, they decided to ignore them? Surely if the lab results are so reliable and never throw up odd results they would have been horrified and taken action?

I think it was a junior doctor-they assumed it was simply a mistake but yes it should've been followed up. The physicians can look at the symptoms the babies were showing and see how they matched the abnormal test results. Geoff Chase can't speak on any of that. Once again the science folks ignore the rest of the evidence because all they know is science and think that trumps everything else.

Firefly1987 · Yesterday 22:50

Oftenaddled · Yesterday 22:43

Plenty of physicians think otherwise. Mark McDonald's submission on insulin isn't just from Shannon and Chase. It's from them alongside a statistician and physicians (including endocrinologists)

Do you know what engineering is? I'm amazed anyone thinks it's not relevant to how a test for insulin would work.

My dad was an engineer but I wouldn't ask him about insulin results either!

FrippEnos · Yesterday 22:52

@Barbie222

Whether or not Letby called for a doctor on one occasion was really here nor there when viewed against the great stack of evidence against her

What "stack of evidence", the vast majority of "evidence" seems to be theories and circumstantial?

SnakesAndArrows · Yesterday 22:53

Firefly1987 · Yesterday 22:50

My dad was an engineer but I wouldn't ask him about insulin results either!

Why are you so insistent that Geoff Chase isn’t an expert? Do you think the University of Canterbury has made a terrible mistake?

Firefly1987 · Yesterday 22:56

SnakesAndArrows · Yesterday 22:53

Why are you so insistent that Geoff Chase isn’t an expert? Do you think the University of Canterbury has made a terrible mistake?

I mean, you're taking his opinion over actual endocrinologists, I just wouldn't personally that's all.

Oftenaddled · Yesterday 22:57

Firefly1987 · Yesterday 22:50

My dad was an engineer but I wouldn't ask him about insulin results either!

Well, not if he didn't specialise in that area, no. But who are you going to get to design insulin tests or delivery mechanisms? Engineers or endocrinologists?

Oftenaddled · Yesterday 23:01

Firefly1987 · Yesterday 22:56

I mean, you're taking his opinion over actual endocrinologists, I just wouldn't personally that's all.

No endocrinologists have responded to the new study yet, that I'm aware of, but I'm sure those of them with a scientific bent will be interested in new developments in the field. That's quite normal in all aspects of medicine.

Oftenaddled · Yesterday 23:13

Firefly1987 · Yesterday 22:49

I think it was a junior doctor-they assumed it was simply a mistake but yes it should've been followed up. The physicians can look at the symptoms the babies were showing and see how they matched the abnormal test results. Geoff Chase can't speak on any of that. Once again the science folks ignore the rest of the evidence because all they know is science and think that trumps everything else.

That's why McDonald's submission includes work by neonatologists and endocrinologists as well.

You seem determined to ignore this point, so I will just put that here for anyone in danger of being misled by your posts.

As well as Chase and Shannon, he has submitted a report on the two insulin cases from:

Dr Neil Aiton MBBS MD MRCPI FRCPCH
Dr Adel Ismail, PhD FRCPath
Professor Matthew Johil PhD
Professor Alan Wayne Jones BSc, PhD, DSc
Professor Charles Stanley MD
Dr Richard Taylor MBBS FRCPC
Dr Hilde Wilkinson-Herbots MSc, PhD

That's two neonatologists (Aiton and Taylor), two endocrinologists (Ismail and Stanley), a forensic chemist and toxicologist (Johil and Jones) and a statistician (Wilkinson-Herbots)

Their qualifications and experience are listed in the summary linked from: https://lucyletbyinnocence.com/shoo-lee/Summary%20of%20Joint%20Expert%20Witness%20Insulin%20Report%20on%20Babies%20F%20and%20L.pdf

Firefly1987 · Yesterday 23:18

Oftenaddled · Yesterday 23:01

No endocrinologists have responded to the new study yet, that I'm aware of, but I'm sure those of them with a scientific bent will be interested in new developments in the field. That's quite normal in all aspects of medicine.

So how are the new endocrinologists explaining the insulin results then?

Oftenaddled · Yesterday 23:30

Firefly1987 · Yesterday 23:18

So how are the new endocrinologists explaining the insulin results then?

That is in the summary I linked. I've pasted it below:

SUMMARY OF JOINT OPINION

In the report we present convincing new evidence from multiple sources that the Roche immunoassay test used can give rise to falsely high insulin results due to the presence of antibodies that can react with this type of immunoassay test. We also highlight evidence these antibodies can pass across the placenta to unborn babies and cause hypoglycaemia and apparently high insulin levels in the newborn period.

Furthermore, new evidence has been
published which increases our awareness and understanding about hyperinsulinism in the neonatal period. This information has provided greater insight into how adverse perinatal factors can cause hyperinsulinism in some newborn and premature infants. This is termed Perinatal Stress-Induced Hyper-Insulinism (PSIHI).

We have concluded that the Jury were misled in important areas as follows:

a) Medical facts: the evidence for sepsis, leakage of the central line into surrounding
Vssues, and consideration of alternative causes for the hypoglycaemia.

b) Evidential facts: errors in the glucose results presented, changes in the glucose levels in response to TPN infusion connection/disconnection, ward-based blood glucose tests presented as if they were laboratory results.

c) Testing: that the results of the immunoassay tests can be relied upon, and that the Roche immunoassay method used at the Royal Liverpool University Hospital (RLUH) was specific for identification of insulin alone (endogenous or exogenous)- neither of which are correct.

d) Background error rate: this is at least 0.5-2% despite excellent quality control for the
type of insulin immunoassay test used, which the jury were not made aware of.

e) Quality Control testing information was not revealed to the Court in expert witness
evidence. The results showed a quality control test with high insulin and a low C-
peptide.

f) Abnormal results: it is essential requirement according to published standards to undertake confirmatory testing of the immunoassay result using a different, more specific methodology, such as liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS).

g) Reference ranges not applicable in small preterm infants for C-peptide results and
insulin/C- peptide ratios. Studies in adults and older children were quoted which are
not relevant, and the limited appropriate information was not referred to.

h) The testing did not meet acceptable forensic standards at the Liverpool laboratory in terms of analytical specificity, chain of custody, control testing for interfering substances, and obtaining confirmatory result using alternative available methods or another laboratory.

The new evidence undermines the validity of the results of the insulin and C-peptide testing presented in Court and shows that these immunoassay results cannot be safely relied upon (without undertaking further confirmatory testing).

There is now evidence that:

• shows that the presence of antibodies (IAA insulin autoantibodies and other
antibodies such as HAMA) can interfere with the immunoassay result and cause falsely high insulin results

• demonstrates that insulin autoantibodies can be transferred from mother to baby
during pregnancy causing hypoglycaemia in the baby and falsely high insulin levels

• that IAA (insulin autoantibodies) can be found in pregnancy and in the umbilical cord
blood of infants, that this is not rare, and that the prevalence can vary over time

• In the context of a falsely high insulin result the insulin/C-peptide ratio is meaningless

• demonstrates there are alternative medical explanations which explain the
hypoglycaemia in both babies, such as line failure, sepsis and perinatal stress-induced
hyper-Insulinism (PSIHI). These alternative possibilities were not considered.

• indicates that the testng undertaken did not meet acceptable standards of clinical,
laboratory or forensic practice, and therefore cannot safely be relied upon

Our inescapable conclusion is that this evidence significantly undermines the validity of the assertions made about the insulin and C-peptide testing presented in Court.

Firefly1987 · Today 00:18

I asked chatGPT about how rare these insulin results were-

3. Reported literature

  • Case reports of insulin:C-peptide ratios like the Letby babies’ are extremely rare.
  • Most published cases of high insulin / low C-peptide in infants are either due to deliberate insulin injection or serious assay interference.

Summary

  • In most medical literature, the ratio seen in the Letby trial is considered strongly indicative of exogenous insulin.
  • Rare exceptions exist, mostly in complex neonatal metabolic disorders or technical lab issues, but these are far less common than insulin injection explanations.
  • That’s why the original prosecution and most endocrinologists considered it compelling evidence — while critics argue that in neonates and with assay limitations, the result might not be absolutely definitive.

Bottom line

  • The insulin/C-peptide pattern seen in the trial cases is very rare naturally.
  • There are known exceptions, but they typically don’t match the full pattern as neatly.
  • That’s why it has been treated as one of the strongest medical signals in the case — while still being debated in terms of evidential certainty.

ChatGPT also said it's unknown where Letby was when the third insulin test was conducted as the timeline hasn't been established in court. So any claim that she was only on shift AFTER the test was done (convenient) is pure conjecture.

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