To be worried about the low school intake this Sept?

[FurierTransform]

My daughter starts year R later this year
The school typically has an intake of circa 60 children, split between 2 classes. All pretty normal.
I've just been told that this coming year it is going to be nearer 40.
They are still running 2 classes.

On the surface it sounds great, smaller class sizes is what everyone wants right?
But i'm worried what the unseen impacts will be - on staffing levels, school funding etc, whether the teachers are equipped to capitalise on it as it seems abnormal, & the knock-on effect to the school for the next few years. Are any teachers or school staff reading who can comment?

Is this a nationwide demographic issue this year? was circa 2022 a low birth year?

@MsGreying No country has seen an increase in birth rates once below replacement rate, why do you think it will be different for here?

Small village school here. Average class size has been 18 for my 3 children all the way through. Composite classes mostly. They've all had a great experience.

School rolls have dropped nationwide as others have said and schools/staff have been expecting this and will adapt.

It’s a nationwide trend @FurierTransform &
particularly acute in inner London. You are right to be concerned because headcount’s impact funding.

I think it is a low birth year (2021/2022), due to Covid putting some people off trying in 2020/202.

Schools might do some mixed classes like a year 1 class, a year 1/2 and a year 2 class.

Birth rates were declining long before Covid

schoolsweek.co.uk/how-falling-school-rolls-are-not-just-londons-crisis/

DS started reception in a class of 48, previous year was the full 60. They managed as 2 separate classes for reception and year 1 but the intake the year after him was much smaller so they had to start doing mixed years once DS got to year 2.
I honestly don’t know how the school manage to figure it all out to be honest. Looks like a logistical nightmare to me, not to mention lower funding.
Our personal experience is that the seemed to manage it well and everyone still got a good education as far as I could tell.

Very interesting to read this thread as it’s not my experience at all. DD goes to a south east London primary school, 3 form entry, always at 90 in her year. Her class lost a couple after reception due to house moves of the families and they were instantly replaced by two newcomers in year 1. None of the children who applied to the primary school from my second child’s nursery got a place and some have ended up at their third or fourth choice!

No idea why we seem to be an outlier compared to the rest of the country!

Our school is jam packed every year group and new intake of 90 in September with a waiting list.

Probably depends on area and school.

My son is starting reception and there is only 28 children in his year group. 130 in the whole school. They cater for 4 to 11 year olds. I’m not too worried since the staff levels are high. The school can cater for 140. It’s never full but has an excellent ofstead report.

Potentially depends on the area. Most of the schools around us have huge waitlists. Dds school had 95 applications for 30 places. But that could be where a lot of people have moved out of London to where we are (North Hampshire) and the infrastructure still hasn’t caught up.

What do you mean by ‘whether the teachers are equipped to capitalise on it’?

The budget will probably really struggle with so few children. They obviously still need a teacher in front of them whose salary needs to be paid, whether there’s the money brought by 30 children or the money brought by just 20. Next year will probably go to mixed classes so they may be in a class with 20 year 1 and 10 year 2s. I would say expect lots of complaining from some parents of both Y2 children (who don’t want their child held back with the babies) and y1 children (who think they will struggle socially with the y2s)!

Its nationwide and not good for schools. Funding is allocated based on places taken. If the pattern continued your school will likely mix year groups. Lots of schools near us have a year 1, a year 2 and then a mixed year1/2 class when they were once 2 formed entry. Some good news for parents though as there will be more options and more competition between schools to attracted applicants.

My eldest is currently in reception in a normally full 3 form entry school. There are 21 children in his class and the other classes are similar. I am very interested to find out how many new children will be starting in reception this year, especially as my middle child will start next September. The smaller class size has worked well for now, but I’m concerned about the impact on funding and whether they will close a class before the next child starts school.

It is a major issue, in a city you can close a small, poorly performing school, a couple have closed near us in the last couple of years, and whilst it's upsetting for those involved, it's not a major issue. The problem is in rural areas. They won't have a class of 40 in year 3, but if numbers drop to say 34, they may do that, but mixed-aged classes are much more likely. If you try to fund a teacher for a 20-child class, they will eat up any savings and leave nothing for anything beyond salaries. The head where I'm a governor is quite purposeful about making sure we are full, which is good for us, but to the detriment of those around us. Another will close within the next 2-3 years, some that are closing have modern buildings, it's such a waste.

Just to add, parents in over subscribed popular schools might not notice any difference but birth rates are falling significantly. If you look closely at the data, you might start to notice catchment areas increasing slightly and neighbouring less popular schools not being full. An outstanding school near us which normally has waiting lists was advertising this year.

Exactly this. Countries are actually giving financial insensitives to have more children, only to see the birthrate fall further.

This could have a real impact on teaching. I believe some schools are now making teachers redundant.

One of the schools close to us that is very poor only filled 10/60 spaces and most of those seemed to have been allocated them because they didn’t get into their choices.

Our DC’s school has always been massively oversubscribed but this year only managed 25/30 although they are expecting to pick up some who have been allocated schools in town they don’t want.

You here this a lot but it had little to do with covid.

I read an article recently showing how birth rates have been dropping for some time and that the government has failed to forward plan in education.

For the first year ever we are compeating to fill year 7 in September. This reflects the drop in birth rates. These students would have been in year 1 during covid, yes coivd didn't help but it was already a downward trend.

The problem with school funding is that schools are funded mainly on a per pupil rate. So less pupil = less funding, it's of course going to vary greatly by area. But the reality is student numbers are dropping.

I think it will cause more division between schools. The good ones will still be popular but the back up options will lose pupils & funding, performance and offering may be impacted and you will end up with a wider gulf.

I read an article recently showing how birth rates have been dropping for some time and that the government has failed to forward plan in education.

Our ageing population is a huge part of our economic strife but no government wants to address it.

We changed prep school in year 4.
the school my child was at is in year 6 now. His current school has 36 kids in two forms and his past school has zero year 6 kids.
There were only 7 kids when he left in year 4. Or started in reception with 14 kids.
I can’t believe they all left before year 6.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/may/02/what-happens-when-deaths-outnumber-births

falling birth rates have been in the news for a while.

it is very bad news for schools when small schools face closures and villages are set to lose their local school.