To be worried about the low school intake this Sept?

[FurierTransform]

My daughter starts year R later this year
The school typically has an intake of circa 60 children, split between 2 classes. All pretty normal.
I've just been told that this coming year it is going to be nearer 40.
They are still running 2 classes.

On the surface it sounds great, smaller class sizes is what everyone wants right?
But i'm worried what the unseen impacts will be - on staffing levels, school funding etc, whether the teachers are equipped to capitalise on it as it seems abnormal, & the knock-on effect to the school for the next few years. Are any teachers or school staff reading who can comment?

Is this a nationwide demographic issue this year? was circa 2022 a low birth year?

It’s a nationwide issue. Some schools locally had 3/60 places filled on offer day. They will get a few more as late applicants get places but it is a major issue for many schools, and seems likely to remain so.

I would say two classes of 20 is okay though - we started with 16 and are now on 28 so it does change as the years go by.

It is a worry.

They legally have to run two classes in KS1. But they’ll likely combine them into one mega class for KS2 (that’s happened a lot near me).

Depending on local circumstances they may look to merge schools.

If it continues, they will start having mixed year classes

The Covid years saw fewer births I think. I believe the current reception cohort is a smaller group too?

I don’t think they do have to have single year classes in KS1. There were mixed year classes throughout except reception ( foundation)

Low birth rate across population.

You are right to be concerned. My DC went to a rural primary (DS just finishing) and there were several years in a row of classes no more than 22-23. My DS class only 19. He was lucky and it stayed like that most of the time, but one year they ended up mixing classes to do with one less teacher. The impact on funding is poor and the school struggled. I should imagine over time your school will reduce to 1 form entry if the trend continues. Our school was eventually saved by another rural primary nearby closing down so the kids there had to come to ours.

The school I work at has gone from 5 form to 2 form entry over the last 6 years.

We could have got 70-80ish kids for Reception but that means 3 small classes and the pressure on budgets is too much so a decision was made to take PAN down to 60.

The population bulge is now in Secondary. It's a really worrying time for Primary schools all over.

I don’t think there has to be legal separation in KS1 either. We viewed several schools with mixed KS1.

The school DS got into is full, as are a few others. Some are emptier. An unpopular but big school near me is only doing one class instead of its usual two.

Where I went to primary school 40 years ago there were only 5 of us in my year.

MN is full of stories of enormous classes and closing schools if a year group drops below 30, but I've spent the last 15 years teaching classes of 16-25 children in two different counties in very different schools. Plenty of schools manage it, generally with fewer TAs than some schools have traditionally had. Mixed age classes are not the end of the world either, with many mixed age class schools achieving excellent results regardless.

Lots of closures of primary schools in London and reduction in PAN from 2 forms to one. It is the same all over and it massively impacts budgets as funding is per pupil . Lot of rolling mixed year groups and mess. Mixed year groups are fine planned but when you are changing all the time due to budget they aren't good.
Sorry but in the short term it can be good and small receptions can mean great progress

I'd hazard a guess that if there's a similar intake next year, they'll move to composite classes. Not sure that's a particular problem, though?

They could mix years but they can’t have more than 30. So I guess they could have most of YR in their own year and a few with the Y1s, but it’s not the same as a tiny village school where they have under 30 in a combined class if that makes sense

We have a class of 17, into Year 2 now. We have a teacher, a TA and another part time TA who helps some of the children with more specialised needs. Small rural school, it’s just the way it is. It’s never ever been suggested that classes be merged.

Yes. KS1 class size ms must adhere to PAN.

Most schools do try to keep foundation separate where possible.

My youngest is out of primary now, but their infant school moved to vertical teaching (Y1/2 mixed) in the 2019/20 academic year. Because of Covid we didn’t really get a feel for the difference it made, but it was because of a declining intake it happened. It’s not new, but happening more often now I believe.

my kids have been to 2 primaries both which have been mixed year groups right from reception. My Year 8s year was 12, current Year 6 is 10 and Year 1 has only 6. It's challenging in some ways I am sure for the school as budgets must be very tight and they have to mix classes, sometimes changing the year groups mixing differently each year due to a couple of tiny years. However, my kids have loved their school experience and the ones in Year8 and Year 6 have done, or are predicted to do, well in SATs. So although change is worrying I wouldn't fret too much.

I went to a primary school in which some of the classes (though not all) were a mix of two year groups. The school had too many pupils for one class per year group, but not enough for two. It was OK back then, but given how so much is expected of teachers these days, I've no idea how a teacher would manage to teach two different curricula to the same class.

Our PAN has dropped from 60 to 45. We have 31 starting in Sept. I predict they will mix classes as they transition through the school now tbh.

This is nationwide. It’s uncertain what the impact will be. It really depends on the school. In my job role, I attend several governing body meetings a term - approx 10. There’s only 2 schools in those 10 which have been fully subscribed over the past few years, they are very popular schools.

I have schools who have done the following:

— Merged cohorts, ie Year 1 and 2 are split into 3 classes - a Year 1 class, Year 2 class, and high achieving Year 1/low achieving Year 2 class. The same further up the school.
— Continued with low class numbers, but this has had a direct impact on cutting TA numbers.
— Schools with healthy budgets (high Pupil Premium numbers) have continued as is, and been able to absorb the costs.
— Extended nursery provision beyond what the 30 free hours offers at a chargeable cost to parents to increase income.
— I have one school which has an EYFS unit, which is Nursery and Reception merged (this is a one form entry school which had 14 pupils enter last September).

From my experience, rural schools in affluent areas are the hardest hit. They’re usually one form entry schools, with low Pupil Premium figures, and the opportunity to bring in extra funding is low.

The schools, surprisingly, in deprived areas, are doing well. Again, this is due to the additional funding children from vulnerable groups bring with them.

At a meeting I attended last week, the Head of School Improvement was in attendance as the school is facing academisation as a result of falling pupil numbers over the last 5 years and the budgetary impacts. He explained that this is a national picture, and data suggests that we expect to see the class numbers continue to fall until at least 2030.

Until the impact of the lifting of the 2 child cap kicks in again

Official statistics (24/25) if anyone is interested.

Locally, we are suffering from the academy programme where by the Conservative government were pushing for new academies. New academies opened having a direct impact on existing maintained schools. 30 new places in a new academy, numbers dropped from 60 to 30 in the local school. Staff redundancies and empty classroom, yet money spent to build new. Stupid!

https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/school-capacity/2024-25

Spot on…

Despite being the most oversubscribed school in the borough, DS (now in Year 2) has never had a year that’s at full capacity. They’ve generally had 10-15 spaces free. That’s changed with the current Reception and the impact of VAT and the closure of a couple of local prep schools. He’s also had more people into his year too.