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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think the weekend weather forecasts are deliberately pessimistic atm to reduce car travel?

31 replies

PicaK · 03/05/2026 20:27

I know, I know it's a ridiculous conspiracy theory....
But it's been lovely this weekend despite dreadful weather forecasts all week. And it was like that the other weekend.
Convinced it's a plot to stop us planning weekend trips and conserve fuel.

Anyway delightfully not busy at West Midlands Safari Park today so it has my full approval 😂

OP posts:
MrDobbs · 03/05/2026 20:32

Years ago I once heard that TV weather forecasts always erred on the pessimistic side as, if they said it was going to be rain but it turned out sunny, no one would complain but if it was the other way round they would be inundated with people writing in blaming the forecasters for ruining their day. Not sure if it was true then, or now.

I suppose personally when I see (as was our forecast here for Sunday) "40% chance of rain" all afternoon, with the associated raincloud symbol, I think automatically, it looks like it's going to be a wet afternoon, whereas it's actually saying most likely it will be dry.

Trih · 03/05/2026 20:32

Yeah it said it was gonna rain all weekend where I am and it didn’t rain once very nice weather

EmbarrassmentLovesCompany · 03/05/2026 20:50

It's absolutely pissed it down all day today.

Yesterday was lovely yesterday, but definitely indoor weather today.

Jury is out for tomorrow.

BaronessEllarawrosaurus · 03/05/2026 20:53

Walked out of the house this morning and went back in to get my coat as it was raining. Was raining when I left work last night. Would have loved some dry weather

Auroraloves · 03/05/2026 20:53

it’s rained since the early hours where I am and hasn’t let up. Nice weather yesterday and Friday though

Hiddeninthetrees · 03/05/2026 20:56

I think you got lucky, we had loads of rain yesterday and a good chunk today. Hoping tomorrow will be a little drier.

Tshirtking · 03/05/2026 20:56

It's been absolutely throwing it down all day today. The weather doesn't just cover your area OP.

mumofoneAloneandwell · 03/05/2026 20:56

Yanbu imo

Google maps claims there is traffic on various routes/claims roads are closed when they arent to reroute traffic

They're manipulating us 😤😤

Still, I wont do anything about it other than have the occasional whinge 😄

AccordingToWhom · 03/05/2026 20:57

EmbarrassmentLovesCompany · 03/05/2026 20:50

It's absolutely pissed it down all day today.

Yesterday was lovely yesterday, but definitely indoor weather today.

Jury is out for tomorrow.

Same here!

the80sweregreat · 03/05/2026 21:03

The weather never seems right for my area! Not sure why. I think the met office tend to hedge their bets a bit at times. I don’t think it’s done on purpose, but there are too many cars on the road , so it may be a thing op. Absolutely nothing surprises me anymore.

EmeraldRoulette · 03/05/2026 21:25

I don't think that's the reason why

But I have commented a lot on the weather threads that the weather forecast used to be really accurate and now it's not

I think they've explained to me that it's to do with changing technology in forecast

I wish they would change it back

I planned for today to be raining and ended up spending a really nice sunny day indoors!

I follow a couple of amateur forecasters who tend to be better.

but like a PP, nothing surprises me any more.

The forecast for next week is really gloomy and I'm now wondering if that's completely wrong as well.

PedantsOfDestiny · 03/05/2026 21:47

I'm more likely to drive than walk if it's rainy?! So not sure your theory makes sense.

But I deliberately didn't put any washing on this morning then was annoyed because I could have dried loads as it was sunny all day until the evening!

PicaK · 03/05/2026 22:04

PedantsOfDestiny · 03/05/2026 21:47

I'm more likely to drive than walk if it's rainy?! So not sure your theory makes sense.

But I deliberately didn't put any washing on this morning then was annoyed because I could have dried loads as it was sunny all day until the evening!

Yeah you'd drive a short distance defo if it was raining. But if you were planning a day trip out or weekend break you'd go nah, wait for a dry weekend.
Apologies to those who had rain, our forecast was truly dreadful for this weekend but it was scorching today.

OP posts:
Bristolandlazy · 03/05/2026 22:06

Fairly accurate here, poured this afternoon.

HangingOver · 03/05/2026 22:07

MrDobbs · 03/05/2026 20:32

Years ago I once heard that TV weather forecasts always erred on the pessimistic side as, if they said it was going to be rain but it turned out sunny, no one would complain but if it was the other way round they would be inundated with people writing in blaming the forecasters for ruining their day. Not sure if it was true then, or now.

I suppose personally when I see (as was our forecast here for Sunday) "40% chance of rain" all afternoon, with the associated raincloud symbol, I think automatically, it looks like it's going to be a wet afternoon, whereas it's actually saying most likely it will be dry.

Edited

I think they said on the radio the 40% thing is they take a measurement of land, I can't remember how much but say 10 square miles... And the % is what % of the area will have rain at that time.

Timetakesacigarette · 03/05/2026 22:07

I don’t think it’s a conspiracy but they seem to have got the forecast quite wrong. It was a nice afternoon in the Midlands today - quite sunny and warm and no rain whatsoever up to this point.

Joeythehurler · 03/05/2026 22:09

You are ridiculous.

TheSmallAssassin · 03/05/2026 22:14

HangingOver · 03/05/2026 22:07

I think they said on the radio the 40% thing is they take a measurement of land, I can't remember how much but say 10 square miles... And the % is what % of the area will have rain at that time.

That's not right, it's a 40% chance that it will rain in that place during the hour of the forecast.

EmeraldRoulette · 03/05/2026 22:47

It's just started raining now

And they've moved the rainy forecast for tomorrow, which is the day I was going out

Forecasting used to be quite accurate within hours. Now it's just shit.

Forestfire12345 · 03/05/2026 23:49

So....how would they do this though?.Logistically...😂😎Do they all text each other? Do they argue about it? Who are they? Who is Q in all this ?! Why would they agree to it at all?

It's just not plausible .
Weather accurate to the hour here, tapping on my Google Android widget thing .

Bigearringsbigsmile · 04/05/2026 01:20

Its been grey, overcast, chilly and a bit drizzly on and off all day here.

NotAnotherScarf · 04/05/2026 06:32

There was a news story I think mainly about the bbc and the fact that if there was any rain forecast in the 24 hours, it would show a rain symbol on the web page and the news one. Even if that rain was for 4am and was going to be for 20 minutes. Promoters of big events, tourists attractions had complained.

Re accuracy. The bbc several years ago moved from the met Office to an Australian company and they are nowhere near accurate. The met Office offical app isn't bad, I also use weather 24 which is good

Sartre · 04/05/2026 06:43

The weather actually has been shit here since yesterday so no conspiracy. It poured it down all day yesterday and today looks overcast.

HelpMeGetThrough · 04/05/2026 07:52

They got it right here. Pissed down all day on Saturday and Sunday (had the heating on yesterday).

Today is dry so far, but I’m sure that won’t last.

CoverLikelyZebra · 04/05/2026 07:58

Lovely was it @PicaK? Saturday afternoon was abysmal for us and I got absolutely soaked to the skin because the relatively short amount of walking I had to do unavoidably was too much for my little umbrella. If you got "lovely" where you were you are just lucky.