AIBU to feel frightened about the risk of AMOC collapse?

[rockinrobins]

The likelihood of an apocalyptic ice age scenario happening in our lifetimes is now higher than not.

Is no one else scared about this for themselves and their children? Why aren't we talking about it?

If the AMOC collapses, we will be living in temperatures of -20 to -30 degrees Celsius within our lifetime. There is nothing we can do, but it's terrifying, and no one is discussing it.

From Google:

Recent studies suggest a high likelihood of an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse, with some projections estimating a 42%–76% chance of collapse before 2050 or 50%–70% within this century. A 2026 study predicts a 42%-58% slowdown by 2100, which is likely to end in collapse. This is no longer seen as a low-likelihood event.

which one

I think you’re unreasonable to be frightened because it’s not helpful for you or for the wider issue. Concerned, absolutely.

1. the prediction is that the shutdown would begin by 2050. The shutdown would then play out over the following 50-100 years. So, while we shouldn’t put our fingers in our ears over it, the likelihood of you experiencing the worst case scenario is small, though increasing impact for your children.
2. the Earth is ‘overdue’ the next glacial period (what most people consider an Ice Age), which occur on cycles governed by changes in the orbit of the Earth and our axis. It is likely that our interference, as a species, in natural systems has delayed this climate deterioration rather than accelerated it. Now, this doesn’t change the fact that it’s going to change everything that we know, but it does mean that there’s literally nothing we can do about it other than prepare. Which leads me to:
3. Preparing >8 billion people for the level of change a glacial period brings is far beyond anything our systems are capable of - it would/will require mass migration towards more hospitable climates but also there won’t be any way of growing enough food for everyone without major change. Humans are good at adapting to disasters, but it’s going to hurt and in quite unpredictable ways (who, what and when).

So, whilst I am concerned, I know there is no point in worrying about it now. In the same way that I’m concerned about World War III and about societal collapse due to AI. All I can do, and can encourage my children to do, is to live each day well - enjoy yourself but get a good education; make plans for the future but be prepared to be flexible.

Things like this are too big for me to worry about, if that makes sense . It's like worrying about nuclear war or a giant asteroid: it would be the end of life, I can do nothing about it, it's not like worrying about my gas bill or job or kid's exam grades. It's too big to carry. I will continue trying to limit the harm I do, voting for people and parties who recognise the risks and want us all to limit the harm we do, etc, but day to day I don't worry about it much.

Best post, perfectly expressed 👌🏻👌🏻

That's not how weather systems work, certainly not one as vast as this.

The system warms the entire northern hemisphere, keeps ice sheets from advancing, pulls water with it meaning a collapse would result in North America getting a fairly rapid 0.5 metre increase in sea level over 50 years (the collapse takes a while, ot would be more like a shutdown over a few decades once it starts), the jet stream would be disrupted causing many issues, violent cold winters and storms would increase across North America. The entire northern hemisphere is impacted, substantially.

The biggest changes would be localised further north, and the biggest before and after difference will be in Europe that is true. But Europe will be worse than Canada is now, and the entire northern hemisphere will be screwed and worse in various ways.

You should be more worried about the companies laying at the feet of ‘AI’, the likelihood of WW3 ( if that’s not already started) and the US and/or Israel firing off nukes than anything else at the moment OP.

Its simple psychology.

What do you propose the average person does about this?
Nothing, the average person can do nothing.

What does worrying about this acheive?
Nothing, there is nothing worrying will acheive.

It feels like something so far out of our control and so far away from day to day life that it is not worth thinking about.

Inheritance however is something that people can relate to, they have likely received some, will receive some, plan to leave one etc.

It is a simple case that humans think about things they can relate to.

Every "will" in that is doing a lot of heavy lifting. There is no certainty about what would happen.

I might chance the southern hemisphere if it happens but no point worrying beyond that. Enjoy the sunshine.

Plus we can see what disruption to oil is doing rn, there may be fewer flights etc it’s not easy to do.

Apparently there was a prophecy a very lpng time ago that the world would end in 2012.

Unsure if it involved an asteroid.

But it was in all the news.

Even a movie called 2012 was made about the World ending.

My 12 year niece was so scared and truly believed the World was gon a end that year- had to work very hard to reassure her.

Look it up. Might still be info re this on the net.

My daughter also comes home worried about the world ending- usually the Geography teacher causing her to worry.

Sometimes the a different subject.

Having just done some quick research:

There also appears to be huge disagreement in the scientific community over both the timescales of this happening and the effects of it happening.

Unlike global warming which is pretty much universally accepted as happening this seems to vary, I came across peer reviewed models suggesting 2063 and other models suggesting no major changes for over 1,000 years.

The outcomes if it does collapse also seem to vary from low end models suggesting >1 degree global temp change and 4-6 degrees in northern Europe which would cause issues for home grown crops but would not change society dramatically.

So I think this is a lot of guesswork still going on.

But what do you want us to do about it?

Ok yes it might happen and we might all die and our families obliterated.

Now what???

No sorry

but also I just think it's a strange thing about human nature how much we stick our heads in the sand.

Do you? It’s a normal part of human behaviour. It’s how we evolved. There are always more immediate problems to deal with, which makes the potential bad things happening tomorrow feel less important. If I can’t feed my children or protect them from wolves today, who cares of the sky falls in next year? Can you think of any animal that plans ahead to that extent? Why would you expect human animals to be different?

Like a pp I did a degree in Ecology and Environmental Science a long time ago. We’re fucked and we’ve about known it for a long time. Why haven’t we done anything about it? Because here and now we need to feed our children and protect them from wolves. Anything that’s happening at the global environmental level - good and bad - is really just background noise to that, at the species scale.

I mean, after the response to Covid, I'm pretty sure that an ice age would cause some issues 😅

You need to check the dates on what you are researching because new data has emerged very recently, hence it's currently in the news.

It would, but there isn't agreement that that would happen!

HOW have I never heard of this??? Well that’s my afternoon lost down a research rabbit hole. I agree, it’s mind bending that this isn’t top on gov / media lists

YANBU

I guess that’s also why some people panic at the threat of terrorism while eating poorly, smoking, not exercising etc etc.

Thats right. Im not bothered to be honest, some species will survive and others wont. Humans might not. There was a time, longer periods of time, that humans have not been on the earth, there will be again. We're just one of millions of species

Do you mean I’m the longer term or not fussed in the next generation or so?

I could probably agree more if I didn’t have dc.

There are so many things to worry about at the moment, I can totally see why nobody had any headspace for this.

I also agree that if I had no kids I honestly wouldn’t give a shit.

I read about this in the Guardian and just sort of filed it for now. It did say that the worst case scenario modelling was now what was going to happen which was a huge shock to scientists, if I remember correctly. I just dont know what to say when my dc talk about having dc. Its thoroughly depressing.