AIBU to feel frightened about the risk of AMOC collapse?

[rockinrobins]

The likelihood of an apocalyptic ice age scenario happening in our lifetimes is now higher than not.

Is no one else scared about this for themselves and their children? Why aren't we talking about it?

If the AMOC collapses, we will be living in temperatures of -20 to -30 degrees Celsius within our lifetime. There is nothing we can do, but it's terrifying, and no one is discussing it.

From Google:

Recent studies suggest a high likelihood of an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse, with some projections estimating a 42%–76% chance of collapse before 2050 or 50%–70% within this century. A 2026 study predicts a 42%-58% slowdown by 2100, which is likely to end in collapse. This is no longer seen as a low-likelihood event.

Every 5 years there's a new thing in the news that is going to cause the end of the World.

I don't believe the AMOC collapse is going to happen in the near future.

And if it does I'll deal with it when it does.

Im not gonna live my life being anxious about everything. Then every few years a new threat is on the horizon.

Agree.

Way too much hysteria in the news

Next week it'll be something else that will cause the end of the World

Im all burned out from " The World is gonna end " news.

What do you propose that we should do about it op?

No, it stands for Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. It's like a giant water conveyor belt bringing warmth from the tropics up to cooler regions. Further north, the top layers cool and sink, and then slowly slink back to the equator down in the depths.

The trouble is that if the upper water stays warmer (because of warmer air) and fresher (because of ice melting) it can't sink near to pole to follow the usual path back to the tropics. So that could lead to the usual turnover slowing or ceasing.

Here's some that I've lived through- World as we know it will end

Nuclear war.

Ice Age

Millennium bug

Ozone layer- we were all gonna die from skin cancer or something

2012

Asteroid- there's a new one in the news every few years.

Fossil fuels running out imminently

Global Warming- still ongoing

Brexit

Current ones-

Farage getting in

AI

Iran war- running out of fuel.

Bees disappearing

I'll add Amoc collapsing to the list.

I've prob missed a few.

YABU because pretty much the same thing was posted yesterday.

Emphatically No. It will not be the end of the world. Yes, it might collapse, and yes that will cause weather changes in the British Isles. But it won''t lead to a global or even local extinction. What it might do is slow the effects of climate change in this part of the world. It would lead to worse winters - colder, lots more snow, more frequent storms, but it is considered likely to have much less affect on our summers. Without doxxing myself, I'm involved in looking at the effects of a collapse of the AMOC here, amongst other things, and the actual scientists that are working on this predict serious effects, but nowhere near as bad as the media presents it. There are too many other factors in play to say that it will lead to an apocalyptic situation. It will lead to changes, not human extinction.

@Isekaied what was 2012?

My point was that the person I was replying to said that it was basically an internet thing (you can read the quote). That was what I was rebutting.

Ah well nevermind. We all die sometime.

The Millennium bug and ozone depletion were the two largest-ever global cooperative efforts to ensure that disaster didn't happen.

@MediumHigh it was the end of the Aztec/incan/some south/middle American calendar. Apparently the relevant culture had a calendar that we can read, and it ‘ran out’ in December 2012.

probably because they lived so long ago that there was no point in them writing more dates…

But the fact there were no more dates meant a theory spawned that the end of the calendar was because they had predicted the world would end.

Life on earth has always been temporary though .

Sorry Op, whilst I found the topic interesting, I won't be worrying about it. It is outside my circle of control.

I can’t get upset about any of this.

It's been on and off my mind for about 20 years. I'm hoping it won't happen for another 20.

I’m not worried about it. It will happen at some point but I’ll probably be dead by then 🤷🏻‍♀️

big science not the average joe will save it

Lots of people are discussing it, OP- I've read more than one article about it this week. I think the figures you've presented are a bit out there- not sure anyone serious is talking about 2050 and a lot of discussion is about weakening rather than collapse- but it's a well known risk and much discussed.

I think comparing it to people discussing family issues is a bit silly, I'm afraid. Even the staunchest environmentalist thinks about things other than the environment and even after massive climate change we'll all continue to do so. We'll be shivering together in some desolate hole desperately trying to stay alive and people will still be gossiping about their neighbours and grumbling about their MILs, because that's human nature and always has been.

I wonder why I bother to recycle etc when I see videos from the US. Driving any distance, using a/c and dryers all the time, using aluminium trays to cook in so they can throw them rather than wash them, using disposable tableware.

Sure, we 'could'.

But there is a difference between something that 'could' happen and something that scientists are stating is 50-70% certain to happen. That's more chance than the flip of a coin.

If you were told someone would flip a coin and if it's heads, you and your loved ones will be killed, you would be worried.

And it will not be a sudden meteor - it will be a prolonged period of societal collapse, freezing cold, breakdown of food supplies, hunger.

Knowing with a fair level of certainty that this is highly likely to happen within our lifetimes, is different to when people say 'we could be hit by a meteor any day or get blasted by big flares from the sun'.

I think those saying I am catastrophising are not really understanding the situation.

But I do take the point about not being able to do anything about it, and I am indeed enjoying the sunshine today as well!

I am just wondering why everyone is being so quiet on this issue and so many people refuse to even engage with it or learn about it.

Stop eating meat is a low effort, high impact change that people seem to bloody mindedly refuse to do.

You're still catastrophising though. The odds may be high of it happening ~(although I'd question the source of your 50-70% odds), but it is far from agreed that even if it does happen,that it would lead to societal collapse!

At least the polar bears will have somewhere to live