AIBU to feel frightened about the risk of AMOC collapse?

[rockinrobins]

The likelihood of an apocalyptic ice age scenario happening in our lifetimes is now higher than not.

Is no one else scared about this for themselves and their children? Why aren't we talking about it?

If the AMOC collapses, we will be living in temperatures of -20 to -30 degrees Celsius within our lifetime. There is nothing we can do, but it's terrifying, and no one is discussing it.

From Google:

Recent studies suggest a high likelihood of an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse, with some projections estimating a 42%–76% chance of collapse before 2050 or 50%–70% within this century. A 2026 study predicts a 42%-58% slowdown by 2100, which is likely to end in collapse. This is no longer seen as a low-likelihood event.

Is it normal for you to catastrophise? You sound a lot like my husband when he was struggling with anxiety, a social media story about something like this would have caused him to spiral into irrational panic too.

It might be helpful for you to do a bit of research away from social media scaremongering to set your mind at ease.

honestly "is literally about the end of the world within our lifetimes and horrible deaths for us and our children, of either starvation or cold or both. That is now more likely than not going to be our future." is a very extreme grasp to have formed.

We have access to too much information without enough understanding. The scientific papers and modelling that are done on AMOC include things like worst case modelling and percentage chances but the media spin this into a story without giving enough context because it makes it more dramatic.

Yes, the AMOC is showing signs of weakening and we may see a gradual collapse over the next century. When we reach tipping point there will be changes to our climate but it will not be apocalyptic. Changes will take high decades to centuries. Modelling actually suggests that average temperatures in the north of Europe will drop 3-5c with colder winters and dryer summers. We're not going to be plunged into a permanent subzero climate overnight.

Those generations affected will have time to make changes and humanity will adapt as it always has.

Is the AMOC what most people call the gulf stream?
They were talking about this happening in the 70s, then gkobal warming came along. Maybe they'll cancel each other out 😂😋

I suppose it's bad that you said end of the world and I just heard that we might get snow at Christmas.?

Is the AMOC what most people call the gulf stream?.
No, the gulf stream is one of the components of the AMOC.
https://noc.ac.uk/under-the-surface/atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation

It is scary. But if you so something like the carbon literacy training, there is also huge reason to hope. Lots of change is happening and the difference between what happens if we act and if we don't is huge. It's so much easier to manage the worry if you're active.

You are getting a bit carried away OP. And I understand - that the way some of these articles are written it can be difficult to assess them objectively. This isn’t my area of expertise, but I do review scientific studies for a living and analyse data. It’s an important issue to be aware of, but there’s no need to lose all hope just yet.

Never heard of this. I concentrate more on the here and now - there’s nothing I can do about this. Putting an empty loo roll in recycling rather than the bathroom bin is not going to cut it.

During lockdown, I read a book called State of Fear which was written by a journalist and broke down factually how governments are very invested in behavioural psychology in times of crisis. It was pandemic focused, but lead to about 7 threads that branched off into all sorts of "conspiracy theories" until the threads were pulled because it was suggested we were inciting riots.

I mention this only to illustrate that while awareness of all sorts of issues can be prudent, one is best served by remembering that what we are served via the internet / media is partly agenda driven, partly for monetisation, and partly "just because we can".

I remember on the 70s as a child hearing about impending Ice Age. Now we seem to be cycling back to that after years of global warming talk. The planet goes through cycles, and I'm not denying our activity may well be contributing to disrupting / influencing those cycles but if those with power - which is not us, the end consumer in the capitalist model - just keep greenwashing while simultaneously pursuing profit above all else, all we can do is hope for the best, and live in the moment.

AI is being pushed, promoted and worshipped because of short term profit and its capability to help "manage" us, yet the environmental impact of that is largely brushed off.

What I'm trying to say, as someone who has reached saturation point, and been in very dark places due to personal events, is to try and detach. Observe by all means, but fixating on one issue is where madness lies.

I wake up every day, check the status of WW3, grumble at AI slop, mutter about general social injustice, pet my cats, drink coffee and hope to live to fight another day, if necessary, although I'm not really good at "fighting" and wonder why we're continually being loaded with information designed to apparently keep us in - well, a state of fear.

I wish the OP well. We live in strange and interesting timez, and how much is by accident, and how much by design is difficult to parse given how odd we are as a species, hard wired for survival yet paradoxically apparently hell bent on self destruction.

The sun is shining. What can we do but make the most of it?

And what exactly are we to do with this information? Add it to the list. I’ve moved on from climate change to worrying about AI so no jobs for my young adults and societal collapse due to no one having a job.

I’ve given up fretting. You’ll drive yourself mad. I work with the terminally ill and any of us could go at any time. Just enjoy and treasure what you have. Also there have been worse times.

in the year 540 or around then there were Viking invasions / a volcano that blocked out the sun and destroyed the crops so many died of starvation then the Black Death killed ONE THIRD of the population.

It's too big and too scary and too much out of my control for me to worry about. Probably any future grandchildren or great grandchildren I am lucky to have will live really difficult lives, but also probably my kids will grow up to experience the same human desires I did and will want and hope for children. It's baked in that at some point the period of (relative) calm and peace that I have lived through will end, if not for me than for my descendants. But because I can't change that all I can do is carry on living the best life I can.

I think that's human nature

I think we would be like Jennifer Lawrence in don’t look up. We’d all sit round a table with those we love hold hands and go together.

I’m frightened but more frightened for my adult daughter. She’s a science teacher and well educated on the fact that environmentally, we have gone past the point of no return. I hope she factors that in when deciding whether or not to have children. If I was her now, looking at what’s coming in terms of climate/environment change and AI impacts in terms of economy/jobs/living standards - I would absolutely not have children now

Humans are a parasite on the earth and we’re eating up and destroying our host (the planet). It’s fundamentally what we are as a species. We can reduce the impact we have on the earth and extend our time here, but we can’t fundamentally change what we have become as a species.

Just because people aren’t panicking, doesn’t mean they don’t understand or know what’s going on. Some of us have accepted our fate a long time ago.

I don’t have the headspace for worrying about something that may or may not happen in 25 years time! I’m just trying to get to 5pm tonight so I can go home!
Worrying about tomorrow (25 years hence) only takes away today’s joy!!!

We've had posts on our local community noticeboard Facebook page about a screening of the People's Emergency Briefing. The number of people outright saying that climate change is a hoax / it isn't real / follow the money is absolutely shocking.

I'll add it to the list.

It reminds of when we learnt about Yellowstone in year 7 and I was terrified for weeks afterwards.

I hope you're able to breathe OK through all that sand.

Meh, when I was young it was the fear of Nuclear War. We had Threads, The Day After and When the Wind Blows.

My parents' generation it was the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Remember a few years ago there was a fear that when they switched the LHC on at Cerne we'd all be sucked into a black hole of our own making?

If the world "ends" there's bugger all any of us can do so there's no point worrying about it.

Yanbu, and I nearly started a thread on this topic but couldn’t face reading the replies. It’s devastating news as it means for example a massive loss in agricultural capacity. Recent studies use actual data rather than being fully reliant on models, unfortunately the modelling to date has under-reported the likelihood of amoc collapse. This has hit me pretty hard personally, you are not alone.

Is this about the reversal of the poles? (I wish people would use words rather than abbreviations.) Or is this climate change? I mean we could get hit by a huge meteor any time like the one that caused the Gulf of Mexico. There really isn't any point worrying about things we have no control over. Or we could get blasted by big flares from the sun. Did you see the recent astronauts saying how fragile the earth looks from space? Can but hope scientists will find ways to prevent or mitigate all the potential natural disasters and that humans won't do it first with nuclear, biological or chemical weapons.

I don't worry about it because there's no point in worrying about it. I can't do anything about it. I can't fix it. Worrying about it will bring precisely nothing to my life.

It'll either happen, or it won't. If it happens, then I'll likely be dead in fairly short order, in which case I won't be worrying about anything much any more. Or it won't happen, in which case worrying was for nothing.

Life is about making the most of what you can before the inevitable shit thing happens, whether that shit thing is old age, illness, AMOC collapse or a ruddy great rock hitting the planet. Stressing about all those things is just wasting the the time I do have.

They had bonfires on the Thames in Pepys's times 1600s, I think that was a mini Ice Age. So not that long ago London was in the minus 20s or lower for protracted periods. The predicted reversal of the magnetic poles, that has also happened in the past, would be pretty catastrophic.

Ooo - that remember the CERN panic. There’s even a really bad B movie about that.

Re the AMOC - not I’m not worried. We will adapt, as we have always done. The George Monbiot article goes off into supposition and hyperbole, which is a shame as he’s usually decent about raising agricultural issues, but I guess reasonable calm doesn’t sell.

Yes the AMOC could diminish. So we’d have to insulate houses and actually learn to handle the cold weather. We’d lose some farmland/capacity, but other areas would gain it. the conditions likely to result if it even happens, are conditions that people actually already survive in today.

Now I take issue with the idea that we are parasites. I think this kind of thinking has contributed to our psychological decline alongside media etc. It is echoed in the growing suggestion that the materially poor are less worthy and a problem to be solved.

Bar any other solid evidence we evolved here in symbiosis with the planet and are of the planet. For millenia we took what pretty much just what we needed and had a better understanding of our relationship with our environment. In the last few hundred years our progress has warped and skewed that, and is now somewhat out of control, but I don't believe we are intrinsically wired that way, I think it's the by product of capitalism. We have to adapt to the systems we are confined by.

If you continually undermine people's sense of purpose and self worth, remove their agency, and dehumanise them they will often fall victim to self fulfilling prophecy., and the dog eat dog cycle perpetuates. The fact that we're not all slaughtering each other in the streets is a hopeful sign, although the bread and circuses trope may partly apply I suppose.

We have myths like Pandoras box for a reason. There is always hope. I hope....

Yes there are still people living in bunkers since the 1970s waiting for the nuclear strike that still hasn't happened. Totally wasted their lives, being prepared for nuclear war.