How many kids have left the school? (VAT)

[limeandwater]

It's been long enough now that I think we can make a reasonable conclusion on how bad it has hurt school.

To be honest at our school I only know 3 pupils that have left because of the VAT so not as bad as many feared.

Still heartbreaking for the kids though.

I strongly suspect that cost of living also plays quite a big role in this. I don't find children needing to move schools at all heartbreaking though, just one of those things and really not as big a deal as to be considered heartbreaking.

Over 11,000 to over 13,000 pupils left independent schools in England by January 2025 following the removal of the VAT exemption, with some reports suggesting an exodus of over 25,000 across the UK. This drop,, ~1.9% of the sector, is roughly four times higher than government predictions of 3,000, causing severe pressures on local state schools.
Independent Schools Council - ISC
Independent Schools Council - ISC
+3
Initial Data: Department for Education (DfE) data shows 11,000 fewer pupils in English private schools compared to the previous year.
Sector Figures: The Independent Schools Council - ISC annual census showed a reduction of over 13,000 pupils by January.
Projected Impact: The government previously estimated only 3,000 to 14,000 pupils would leave, suggesting the actual impact is significantly higher.
School Closures: Several independent schools have closed, citing financial pressure from the tax change.

Quick Google search. Have not done a proper deep dive though to see if any of his is accurate.

It’s only 3 more years until a general election, I’m hoping schools can hang in there until then.

As big a role as increasing the cost by a fifth midway through an academic year?

Yes probably, especially when put together with all the other costs that have gone up.

It’s hard to know exactly how many families have left but the highest‑performing private school in our city is really struggling. The other two were already seeing a steep decline in numbers even before VAT was introduced.

Reception enrolment dropped by a third — they normally run three classes, but last year they only filled two. They even opened a nursery to try to offset the fall in numbers.

This year, they’re still heavily marketing nursery, reception and Year 1 places. In the past, it would have been unheard of for them to actively advertise Year 1 availability and applications for Reception would no longer be open.

They’ve scrapped the entrance exam for the Year 6 to Year 7 transition, which comes across as a sign of desperation to keep student numbers up.

Even the sixth form is being pushed hard, with marketing for scholarship placed targeted at pupils from the other two private schools.

You mean the 20% increase on top of inflation? Yes I believe you’d be correct there,

Kids leave schools all the time. In my child’s class, Y3, they’ve had 5 kids leave since Reception (and 4 start). People move, or change schools for other reasons. Heartbreaking sounds dramatic to me.

If parents can no longer afford something, then the kids adapt. It’s how the parents frame it that makes the difference. There are lots of wonderful state schools out there.

No, why so aggressive? I mean mortgage rates, car costs, energy costs etc. Everything has gone up so spare money is naturally tighter.

Yes, you are describing inflation.

I'm describing things that could quite likely be factors alone, regardless of vat.

Absolutely this.

Most people wouldn’t pull their settled children out of a school without a good reason, it’s pretty obvious why not. Is ‘heartbreaking sounds dramatic to me’ really a good reason to tax parents into having to pull their children out of schools and school closures?

I never understood the VAT thing. For one, it means that parents who could JUST about send their child to private school could no longer do that and secondly there are now lots more children who are putting a burden (not that the children are a burden) on state schools who are already oversubscribed and struggling which just adds to another issue? Private or not why would you put tax on education

I’ll just add, my child goes to a state school. They have to raise £9k a year just for the school to run, how miserable

You’re describing inflation which definitely has an impact on affordability, the 20% is on top of that.

Many of those leaving probably would have had to anyway due to the cost of living increases. Like everything, if you wish to pay for the luxury version it is taxable. Free education is out there, or, if you can afford it you can pay for it. All the vat did really was adjust the threshold of those with the ability to pay for it. Moving school is not a big deal.

assuming the Govt of the day make it a priority which it isnt so prob more like 4 years but schools may well have put their fees up by eg 10% a year and the school pupil numbers will continue to fall.

It doesn’t make any sense, I’m amazed there are still people attempting to rationalise it.

We didn't take up a pre prep place in september as the low birth rate meant we got an unprecedented excellent out of catchment state place. If we'd have been given our poor catchment school we'd have continued with private.

Theres probably plenty like us who didn't go ahead with private for this reason or VAT, also we were concerned about falling numbers which I'm aware is a self fulfilling prophecy

In DC's school about 60 kids have left and the school is struggling and increasing fees (after the Vat increase) for the rest of us. I wish we could take dd out as well but she struggled to cope and was miserable in the state school she started in so we can't just send her back there . She is happy in her current school and thriving.

I haven’t done the workings, and have not claimed to. I quoted from an article pp linked from LSE.

An excellent school in my area has announced its intention to close at the end of the academic year. It’s incredibly sad. A nurturing school, excellent reputation, much loved by the whole community. VAT and other cost increases, meant it was no longer viable.
There are many decisions made by this government that have lacked common sense, fair execution and forethought. Decisions driven by ideology. Removing the exemption is right up there.
I find it particularly enraging actually.

Changing school is quite a big deal for a child and not something most parents would do lightly unless they had a good reason.

Funnily enough I remember my psychiatrist insisting that when I changed schools as a child it was an adverse life event that must have contributed to my depression. (It wasn't and it didn't and he was a condescending bastard so this is purely tangential. Also, completely different as I had wanted to change schools)

Children’s education isn’t a luxury, some people consider it incredibly important.
Yes I agree that the tax ‘adjusted the threshold of those with the ability to pay for it’. That’s my point.
Whether moving schools is a big deal or not probably depends on the child and situation, but forcing tens of thousands of children do so will undoubtedly have resulted in some ‘big deals’

It is important, that is why free education is available for all.